Under what conditions can the XV of France win the Tournament?

A defeat and the dream of Grand Slam evaporated.

But not that of final victory in the Tournament expected since 2010 (and a Grand Slam).

There are indeed two home matches to go for the Blues.

“We are still in the game to win the Tournament.

We will have to get as many points as possible in the last two matches.

But we still have our fate in our hands.

Count on us not to let go, ”promised the captain, Charles Ollivon.

This is how they could finish first.

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Imperatively to win the last two meetings

Next Saturday (9 p.m.) then probably Friday March 26, the Blues will host Wales then Scotland.

It is imperative that they win these two matches.

First defeat the Welsh, and thus deprive them of a Grand Slam since the XV du Leek will appear at the Stade de France with four victories in as many games.

They will then have to win their postponed match against Scotland.

Add at least one offensive bonus point

Wales have 19 points.

France, thanks to the (essential) defensive bonus brought back from Twickenham, 10. They must therefore score at least 9 points.

That is to say two victories (2 times 4 points) and an offensive bonus (4 tries registered) to come back to the level of the players of the Principality.

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Do not give bonuses to the Welsh

To beat the Welsh therefore, but by more than 7 points to deprive them of the defensive bonus and without conceding four synonymous attempts, this time, of offensive bonus, and thus prevent them from rising to 20 points.

An alternative (and unlikely) scenario does exist, however.

The French scored four tries (offensive bonus), the Welsh took a bonus point, but the Blues beat Scotland with the bonus.

In this case, the final victory would be played on the general goal-average.

Like last year.

In favor of England ...

Go back to the goal average

The Welsh show +63;

the French + 39 (but one more match to play. By beating the Welsh, Ollivon and his partners would already partially reduce this differential. The difference will remain to be made up against the Scots and thus, despite a tie in points (19 therefore) to finish first in the general goal-average.

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The ideal scenario for the Blues

Two improved victories (at 5 points therefore) would almost certainly ensure the victory of the Tournament in the XV of France.

But between imagining largely dominating Wales AND Scotland and realizing it ...

What if Scotland got everyone to agree?

The XV du Chardon can also still win the Tournament.

With 5 points and three matches to go, Russel and their partners must achieve a clear round.

A victory this Sunday against Ireland, an enhanced victory against Italy in Edinburgh in a week and a success at the Stade de France against the Blues.

They will also have to take an offensive bonus against Ireland or France to reach the 19 point mark.

@WelshRugbyUnion are one win away from securing a memorable #GuinnessSixNations Grand Slam

But they are not the only side that can still win the title ... Here's a look at the Super Saturday permutations

- Guinness Six Nations (@SixNationsRugby) March 13, 2021

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