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CDU chief Armin Laschet
Photo:
Christoph Reichwein / imago images
The fight for the candidacy for chancellor with the CDU and CSU?
Suddenly there is almost nothing to be heard of that.
It is whispered in the Union if someone wants to run at all at the end of the day.
The mood is in the basement with the blacks, they are stuck in one of the worst crises of the past decades.
In the federal government, the polls are falling, mainly because of the growing disappointment of the population about the political errors in Corona management.
The loss of confidence due to the current mask scandal is likely to continue this trend - and now the CDU and its new boss Armin Laschet are threatened with two bankruptcies in the state elections on Sunday in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate.
The Union is approaching a huge strategic problem that could ultimately mean the loss of the Chancellery after the Angela Merkel era: In Mainz, a so-called traffic light coalition consisting of the SPD, Greens and FDP, which, given the polls of the three previous partners and of their respective preferences.
And in Stuttgart, too, there are some indications that the three parties will soon form a government together.
It would be bitter enough that the CDU, which has ruled as a junior partner of the Greens so far, would then only be in the opposition in its former home country - especially since in Baden-Württemberg, as in Rhineland-Palatinate, hopes of a return are at times the State Chancellery had done.
But even more dramatic from the CDU's point of view is the realization after the two election Sundays: What happened in Stuttgart and Mainz could also happen in Berlin.
After 16 years there is a risk of losing the Chancellery and joining the opposition.
In the CDU headquarters in Berlin and at the CSU regional management in Munich, such mind games have been circulating for a long time, even if one publicly dismisses such worries.
It is said internally that the defense of the Chancellery has long ceased to be a "sure-fire success".
But from the point of view of the Union strategists, the traffic light is also so dangerous because it is not a specter for voters - unlike a possible left alliance of the SPD, the Greens and the Left Party.
The traffic light only frightens the Union
The traffic light spreads horror among the CDU and CSU alone.
In the Union parties, too, one attentively registers how the possible partners SPD, Greens and FDP are also getting closer in the federal government.
Of course, it would still have to be clarified whether the SPD or the Greens would lead such a coalition, i.e. who would move into the Chancellery.
In the end, this will be decided by the voters - it would not matter if the Union lost power.
The clearest confessions come from the SPD: The Social Democrats are hoping that election Sunday will send a signal for the federal traffic lights.
The Rhineland-Palatinate Prime Minister Malu Dreyer is determined to continue the alliance with the Greens and FDP, and in Baden-Württemberg Andreas Stoch's SPD is open to a role as a junior partner in a government led by the Greens.
Dreyer recently told the "Welt" that a traffic light coalition was "certainly an option for the federal government."
She "always regretted" that other federal states had not adopted the model.
SPD Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz does not publicly decide whether he would rather rule with a traffic light or an alliance with the Greens and the Left Party.
But it is also clear to Scholz that a coalition with the FDP and the Greens would come from different perspectives than cooperation with the Left Party.
The Greens have a great strategic interest in keeping an alliance with the SPD and FDP in play.
You absolutely want to avoid being considered the Union's established junior partner even before the general election.
Any power option beyond black-green is fine with the Greens.
Since many top greens are skeptical of red-red-green, the traffic light appears to be an attractive alternative.
And the same applies to the Greens: Should a traffic light coalition actually soon rule in Baden-Württemberg, this would also have a significant impact on the debates in the federal government.
Baden-Württemberg's Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann is an original black and green and recently recommended an alliance with the Union, also at the federal level.
But Kretschmann knows what signal effect it would have if he soon ran a traffic light in Stuttgart.
Above all, the FDP wants one thing: to govern
There remains the FDP.
The goal of the liberals is clear: They want to govern, in the federal states and soon also in the federal government.
The termination of the Jamaica soundings in 2017 is now generally regarded as a mistake.
With the new FDP general secretary Volker Wissing, a proven traffic light man has also been represented in the top management since September: He is Dreyer's Vice-Prime Minister and Minister of Economics in Rhineland-Palatinate - and would like to stay that way.
In any case, the tone of the FDP has changed noticeably: In Baden-Württemberg, too, the parliamentary group leader Hans-Ulrich Rülke - a representative of the right-wing liberal wing - can now imagine a traffic light, five years ago it was different.
Relaxation exercises are also taking place at the federal level.
A traffic light, even under a Chancellor of the Greens, is not a fundamental reason for exclusion - this is how FDP boss Christian Lindner sees it internally, and this is how Secretary General Wissing formulates it publicly.
The decisive factor is "whether we find ourselves in a government in such a way that we can bring our values and content into society," Wissing recently told SPIEGEL.
The relationship between the Union and the FDP, on the other hand, has cooled noticeably over the years - despite the existing black-yellow coalition in North Rhine-Westphalia - even if there are still large overlaps, especially in economic and financial policy.
"The CDU has been fighting the FDP for years - since Angela Merkel became federal chairwoman - also in Rhineland-Palatinate," says Wissing.
The behavior of the Union, according to his analysis, has therefore led to the "dissolution of the former bourgeois-conservative camp."
"A black-yellow coalition has thus become an option among others, but no longer automatic." It also sounds like a warning to the CDU and CSU.
But even the alliance with the Greens, which has already been priced in by many in the Union, is no longer automatic because of the possible traffic light option.
Co-govern with the CDU and CSU as junior partners or move into the Chancellery yourself with the help of the SPD and FDP - the answer of the Greens should be clear.
What can the Union do about it?
Perform so strongly in the federal election that no coalition against them is possible.
As of today, this is a difficult undertaking.
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