For now, the government's plans hold: according to the Banque de France, the French gross domestic product (GDP) would climb by 5.5% this year, a level very close to the 6% set by the executive in its 2021 budget. The economists of the institution expect a stable first half, with an activity level still lower by 5.5 points at the end of 2019.
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“
In the third quarter, on the other hand, household consumption and activity should rebound sharply and this momentum should continue at the end of 2021 then at the beginning of 2022. The year 2022 will also be a year of catching-up and growth will remain strong (4 %)
”They write.
In 2023, having caught up, growth should return to its pre-crisis levels at 2%.
In this scenario, economic activity would return to its level at the end of 2019 in the second quarter of 2022.
Labor market adjustment by hours worked
The rebound would therefore be mainly driven by household consumption.
The latter would gradually empty their bank accounts from next summer of the sums set aside during the pandemic.
According to the Bank's latest estimates, the French have not accumulated 200, but 165 billion euros in additional savings between 2020 (110 billion) and 2021 (55 billion).
For the Banque de France, this influx of savings “
is not linked to an income problem.
In these circumstances , consumer incentive policies, such
as bonuses
, lose their effectiveness.
The main thing is the return of confidence
”.
This increase in household savings mirrors the decline in that of companies, "
which got into substantial debt during the health crisis to cover their cash requirements,
" notes the Banque de France.
The establishment thus highlights the decline in the margin rate of companies from 33.2% in 2020, to 29.3% this year.
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On the employment side, the Banque de France emphasizes the effectiveness of public safety nets.
Over one year, at the end of 2020, job losses were limited to 1.4%.
“
The volume of hours worked fell by 7.3% in the fourth quarter of 2020, a fall greater than that of the GDP (- 4.9%).
The adjustment of the labor market to activity has therefore been carried out, for the moment and contrary to custom (in 2008-2009 for example), mainly by the hours per head and much less by the number of employees. jobs,
”concludes the Banque de France.