The terrorist organization strives to present a moderate face on its way to the center of the Palestinian map • However, Sinwar's status is stable and he enjoys the fact that there is no alternative to replacing him • Interpretation
Yahya Sinwar's status is stable
The election of two women to lead Hamas in the Gaza Strip, one as a member of the political bureau and the other as the head of the women's movement, is another nod to the general Palestinian public ahead of the May 22 parliamentary elections.
This is a trend worth dwelling on in light of the rare publicity of the terrorist organization's internal election process, especially when Hamas showcased a close struggle between Yahya Sinwar, who was seen as the undisputed leader in Gaza, and the representative of the founding generation, Nizar Awadallah.
Admittedly, the close race in Hamas can be interpreted as a warning to the incumbent leader of the more hawkish faction in the terrorist organization.
According to this claim, since he was elected in 2017, Sinwar has failed to improve the situation in the Strip, and has failed in the "return marches" project at the border.
On the other hand, it is important to remember that the previous election process was secret and it is not known whether Sinwar won a landslide victory then, so it is not really possible to estimate whether his status has weakened.
Second, in a survey we conducted about a year ago, quite a few achievements were recorded for Sinwar's outright walking policy.
As part of this, Hamas led riots on the border, and closed its eyes in the face of rocket launches by "rebellious factions" towards Israel.
All this without degenerating into a direct confrontation with Israel, such as Operation Resilient Cliff in 2014, which will wreak havoc in the Gaza Strip.
Since the "return marches" in 2018, Qatari investment in the Gaza Strip has increased.
In the years before that, the emirates had invested several tens of millions of dollars a year, except for the year of Operation Pillar of Cloud.
In contrast, in the three years following the demonstrations, the annual Qatari investment soared to hundreds of millions (at least $ 360 million was allocated for 2021).
In addition, the fishing area was significantly expanded, the electricity infrastructure was improved and the crossings were opened for more days (up to the corona plague).
Qatari envoy Muhammad al-Amadi recently revealed that an agreement had been reached to connect the Gaza power plant to a gas pipeline from Israel, funded by the European Union and Doha.
This move will dramatically improve the electricity infrastructure in the Strip.
Even the Corona plague, led by Sinwar, has been halted for many months.
Everyone who entered the Gaza Strip was placed in long isolation, and the first patients inside the Strip were only discovered in August.
Since then, Hamas has imposed strict restrictions on its residents.
Last Friday, Maj. Gen. Kamil Abu Rokon, the coordinator of government operations in the territories who is ending his term, noted that, surprisingly, there are almost no dead bodies and the morbidity at a very low level.
In an interview with Yoav Limor in "Israel Hashavua", the IDF explained that there is a tough discipline in Gaza that allows the epidemic to be stopped.
In light of these things, despite the opposition to his leadership, Sinwar's status is far more stable than it seems.
This can also be learned from the results in the four rounds of last week's internal elections.
In the first round, five candidates competed: Yahya Sinwar, Nizar Awadallah, Mahmoud a-Zahar, Fathi Hamad and another senior figure.
In this round, Awadallah defeated Sinwar by seven votes because of the scattering of voters between five candidates.
But in the next three rounds Sinwar received the most votes.
In the third round he lacked just one vote to rake in more than the 50% needed for a win.
That is, alone, Awadallah had no real chance.
Sinwar enjoys the lack of a real alternative to his leadership and an opposition that does not have a sweeping consensus on one candidate.
Otherwise, Awadallah would have defeated him in the second round.
The really puzzling moments appeared after the announcement of the victory.
Sinwar met with Awadallah and kissed his cheek cordially.
In a photo of members of the Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip yesterday, Awadallah won a place of honor alongside Sinwar.
So more than the Hamas election indicates dissatisfaction with Sinwar, their publicity is meant to wink at voters in the Palestinian Authority territories in Judea and Samaria.
So is the choice to present to the public the integration of women Jamila al-Shanti and Fatma Sharab in the Gaza leadership.
Their election was preceded by criticism from the ground that called for women to be included in the leadership, and Hamas acted accordingly.
In fact, the terrorist organization strives to present a moderate face on its way to the center of the Palestinian map.
This could also be learned from the Hamas press conference regarding the deaths of the three fishermen last week.
It is true that Hamas blamed Israel, claiming that the fishermen had fished up a cohesive glider in their net.
But the organization preferred to call for the intervention of the International Court of Justice in The Hague, and to pass on the findings of the investigation to human rights organizations.
On other days it would have sounded threatening to respond, as it did soon come from Islamic Jihad.
While Hamas presents a democratic front, in which Sinwar "lovingly accepts" those who challenge his rule, Fatah is busy persecuting anyone who challenges the leadership of Abu Mazen. Former Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat, preceded by a threat from Jibril Rajoub that any Fatah member who sends a competing list will be expelled from the movement.
Earlier, Abu Mazen's associates launched a campaign of persuasion for another alternative to Rais - Marwan Barghouti, who is serving five life sentences for leading terrorist attacks - so that he does not run in the PA presidential election this summer.
Against this background, the dynamics of the Palestinian elections are a cause for concern in Israel.
The fear is that despite the polls that lead to Fatah, there will be a similar surprise as in the parliamentary elections in 2006. This may help split the Fatah list and the alienation felt by the Palestinian public towards the Palestinian Authority.