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Corona victims are buried in the Taruman cemetery in Manaus
Photo: Junio Matos / Anadolu / Getty Images
Lucas Ferrante is currently staying at home.
Because of the pandemic, but also because he fears for his life.
He has received anonymous calls and death threats on social media since last year.
In November, a stranger tried to drag him into a car.
The reason: Ferrante, who works as a biologist at the National Institute for Amazon Research (INPA) in the Brazilian city of Manaus in the Amazon region, had already predicted the devastating second wave in Manaus in August 2020.
As coordinator of an interdisciplinary group of scientists, he researched the spread of the corona pandemic on behalf of the state of Amazonas.
Many do not like that.
SPIEGEL
: Mr. Ferrante, you predicted the second, catastrophic corona wave in the Amazon city of Manaus months earlier.
Why were you so sure?
Lucas Ferrante
: We worked with epidemiological model calculations.
It was clear early on that the concept of herd immunity would not work because natural immunity to the virus will decline over time and mutants will develop that will reinfect people.
In the meantime, 100 percent of all infections can be traced back to the more aggressive and twice as contagious coronavirus variant P1, the so-called Brazilian mutant that developed in the Amazon.
SPIEGEL
: You have positioned yourself against President Jair Bolsonaro, who belittles the corona pandemic and rejects lockdowns.
Now you are receiving death threats.
Don't people want to hear what you have to say?
Ferrante
: I made it publicly clear that President Bolsonaro is responsible for the course of the pandemic in Brazil.
His government then contacted the institute I work for and asked for my personal information.
It's difficult to identify the people who are threatening me.
Among other things, they use fake profiles on social media.
I am sure they are Bolsonaro supporters.
There is also evidence that it is an organized attack on me.
SPIEGEL
: There are many cities in Brazil and around the world that have not enforced a lockdown.
Why is Manaus so badly affected?
Ferrante
: The natural immunization in Manaus has been greatly overestimated.
It was assumed that 75 percent of people were infected during the first wave.
People felt safe, they went out and didn't respect hygiene or distance rules.
But last August, only 40 percent of residents had been infected, as our as yet unpublished study shows.
SPIEGEL
: What is the current situation in Manus like?
Ferrante
: The conditions are fantastic - for the virus.
It can continue to expand and change completely undisturbed.
There is no lockdown or similar measures.
Politicians, such as the mayor of Manaus, ignore our recommendations.
The vaccination campaign here has already been stopped twice, first because rich entrepreneurs and influential people pushed ahead and now a second time because there is no longer any vaccine available.
Manaus is now an epicenter of the pandemic and a threat to world health.
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Doctors care for a woman suffering from Corona in Manaus.
The intensive care units in Manaus and other Brazilian cities are overloaded.
Photo: Andre Coelho / Getty Images
SPIEGEL
: Hospitals are currently collapsing in many Brazilian cities.
The daily number of corona deaths has reached a record high, the public health system is completely overloaded and the P1 variant is spreading across the country.
What do you expect for 2021?
Ferrante
: We will experience a third wave with the P1 variant in Manaus around June, and even earlier in other Brazilian cities such as Curitiba.
This third wave has the potential to become even more deadly.
In many Brazilian cities we currently still have the British version, but I assume that P1 will also prevail there.
We are already seeing people who are infected with two Corona variants at the same time, that is, with the British and the Brazilian.
New variants can arise not only through mutations, but also through crossing.
And I'm afraid a vaccine-resistant supervirus will develop.
SPIEGEL
: Is it particularly dangerous to have a few vaccinated and many unvaccinated people next to each other?
Ferrante
: If only a very small part of the population is vaccinated - in Brazil it is currently around five percent - and, as in Manaus, no social distancing measures are implemented, then the chance that a vaccine-resistant mutant will develop is particularly high.
This mutant can then reinfect people who have been vaccinated.
A quick, comprehensive vaccination campaign is therefore the only chance to stop the virus now.
SPIEGEL
: In Germany there is currently a lot of criticism of the EU and the federal government because too few vaccines have been ordered and vaccinations are too slow.
How do you see the action of the Europeans?
Ferrante
: Europeans think too nationally.
This is myopic.
National strategies help for the moment, but they do not provide long-term solutions.
A global pandemic can only be stopped on a global level.
It is of no use if 100 percent of all Germans are vaccinated and in the meantime new, vaccine-resistant mutants are emerging in Brazil.
The virus always finds a way.
SPIEGEL
: What do you want from the international community?
Ferrante
: Vaccine production must be expanded worldwide and vaccinations must be distributed fairly and sensibly.
As for Brazil, the Europeans and the US need to put much more pressure on the Bolsonaro government.
Economic sanctions must not be taboo either.
Our head of state not only endangers his compatriots, but everyone around the world.
Brazil is adding fuel to the fire of this pandemic.
If the international community does nothing now, I see the risk that all efforts to combat the pandemic will have been in vain.
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