03/16/2021 12:21 PM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 03/16/2021 12:34 PM
In political terms, it would be (is) a kind of black swan for
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta's
presidential aspirations
.
While an important sector of the macrismo, plus some allies of the UCR and the Civic Coalition, advance in the 2023 project of the head of Government,
Patricia Bullrich
emerged as an uncomfortable figure within Together for Change.
Almost since the Fernándezes took office, the former Minister of Security raised her public profile and, as president of the PRO,
concentrated the harsh discourse against Kirchnerism
.
Thus, he first concentrated strong support in the City, his militancy district, and then began with suggestive tours throughout the country.
Can you be a candidate in Capital this year?
Will you seek a national projection in 2023?
For now, the leader began to be evaluated more assiduously by public opinion consultants.
At least
seven measured it in recent days
.
What is your Buenos Aires image?
And at the country level?
How do they see you as an opposition leader?
The pollsters that included it in their evaluations were
Management & Fit
(M&F),
Real Time Data
(RTD),
Pérez Aramburú & Asociados
,
Marketing & Statistics
(M&E),
CIGP
,
Projection
and
Cleavages
.
They are consultants of different sizes and ages who work on both sides of the crack.
Although the polls show quite a disparity in their numbers, there are some
general conclusions
that can be highlighted:
- Although Bullrich's fort is in the City, he is
a figure with national reach
, with a high level of knowledge.
-
His image has been growing
.
Especially in the
hard anti-K sectors
, to which his speech has been aimed since the change of government.
- Like all high-profile leaders with strong definitions (such as Elisa Carrió or Cristina Kirchner herself),
in parallel it is generating a high rejection
in government or even moderate groups.
His image of Buenos Aires
Bullrich's career can be split in two.
His positions in
national governments
(Minister of Labor with Fernando de la Rúa and Security with Mauricio Macri, perhaps the most remembered) and in
Congress
.
There she was a national deputy for 12 years for the City (from 93 to 97) and during the two Cristina administrations (2007-2015).
Will it be so since December of this year?
One of the objectives of the former minister is to head the list of Together for Change in the next legislatures.
She herself is in charge of distributing some numbers that give her good as a Buenos Aires candidate.
A study by
Jorge Giacobbe
, at the beginning of February, gave her a
wide winner in an eventual internship
.
A surprise and recent criticism of
Fernán Quirós
, the Buenos Aires Minister of Health and another that sounds for that position, will have to be understood with that logic.
He asked for more firmness to claim the Nation for vaccines.
In general, he asks everyone to be more assertive.
v 1.5
Buenos Aires image of Bullrich
Based on a survey in the City of 820 cases.
In %
Tap to explore the data
Source:
CIGP
Infographic:
Clarín
Clarín
accessed three studies with image data from Bullrich in the City.
1) For
Real Time Data
(a consultancy created in 2019 by a political scientist who worked in Poliarquía), the former minister has
54 positive points
in Capital.
It is
fifth
in a ranking of 22 leaders.
It is surpassed in the district by four teammates from Together for Change: Larreta (65), Carrió (60), María Eugenia Vidal (59) and Diego Santilli (59).
2) For
CIGP
(a small firm, which has been measuring for the last elections), Bullrich combines
52% positive image and 38% negative image
.
In this area, he surpasses all Kirchnerists, also Carrió, but is below Vidal (+ 56% and - 28%) and Quirós (+ 58% and - 9%).
The consultancy also evaluates the
probability of the vote
and there Bullrich appears
very well located
, basically because it concentrates the hard vote of JxC (41%, against 32% of Quirós).
3) For
Proyección
(a firm that is also small and with clients closer to the Government), the president of PRO has a differential against the City
(+ 42.3% and - 46.4%)
.
It shows worse values than Vidal and Quirós, but when the vote is measured, in an even context, it is again better positioned: 13.7% for Bullrich, against 13.4% for the former governor and 9.2% for the minister of Health.
Your national image
The former minister has long been included in national public opinion studies.
For his last position in Cambiemos and for the presidency that he went on to exercise in the PRO.
1) For
RTD
, among 22 leaders Bullrich was the second with the most positive image (48%) of the country, below Larreta (55%).
But due to the crack that her figure generates, the former minister has a balance against (- 2 points, for a 50% negative assessment).
v 1.5
National image of Bullrich 2
Based on a national survey of 950 cases.
In %
Tap to explore the data
Source:
Marketing & Statistics (M&E)
Infographic:
Clarín
2)
Marketing & Statistics
(a consulting firm more closely linked to the business world but also conducting political surveys) presents an interesting evolution of Bullrich's numbers.
And there you see an improvement: now it combines + 43% and - 34%, when at the end of 2019 it had almost the same numbers but inverted.
In their own way, both measurements (and also the Buenos Aires numbers) confirm the initial hypothesis: due to her high profile, the president of PRO generates love and hatred.
His image as an opposition leader
For those forays into harsh speech, Bullrich also began to be measured as an "opposition leader."
1) The consulting firm
Clivajes
(a small pollster, who also measured electorally) asked in its last poll who should lead the opposition: Larreta won with 37.2% and
Bullrich was second
, with
19.8%
, ahead of Macri (13, two%).
It is one of the consulting firms that attributes the worst national image to the former minister (24.5% positive, 15.6% regular and 56% negative).
2)
Management & Fit
, one of the best known in the market, inquired about the "main benchmark of the opposition" and the same podium was given with different numbers: Larreta 33%,
Bullrich 15.9%
and Macri 15.6%.
3)
Pérez Aramburú
, who officially worked for the Cambiemos government, repeated names, but the order and numbers varied.
In his case, he asked about the "main opponent of the Government": Larreta added 24%, Macri 22% and
Bullrich 10%
.
Asked by Clarín about the next steps of the former minister, in her environment they responded that "she is focused on political construction. On having Together for Change explain to the people that she represents for their interests. Until now, it was a good electoral project. , but in the Government it was more Let's continue to change ".
Regarding eventual candidacies, they assured - foreseeable - that "he is not thinking about something in particular now", although they
did not rule out any variant
.
Neither head of government 2023. Neither.
The data worries another referent of the space.
Radical Senator Martín Lousteau.
