Soy in danger: drought affects key areas and alerts the field

Esteban Fuentes

03/15/2021 21:25

• Clarín.com

• Rural

Updated 03/15/2021 9:25 PM

The drought is once again the protagonist of the agricultural season with very negative effects on soybean cultivation.

Private estimates foresee a significant drop in production and project that it will be

the third lowest crop in the last 10 soybean seasons.

The Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange cut one million tons last week, from 45 million to 44 million tons.

While the Rosario Stock Exchange also lowered the projections more abruptly.

He estimated that soybean production will register a significant drop from 49 million tons to 45 million tons.

If these projections materialize, the current soybean harvest

would be the third lowest in the last 10 years,

behind the 2017/18 cycles, with 35 million tons, and 2011/12, with almost 40 million tons.

But from the institutions they do not rule out that

the estimates of the crop harvest continue to fall

as the harvest takes place in the coming days, despite the rains that are developing in the central area of ​​the country between yesterday and today, where they are expected to accumulate. 40 to 60 millimeters.

The technicians agree that for the first-class soybeans, which are about to be harvested, they arrived late, while for the oilseed sown after a winter crop it can help improve the development of the crop.

After a 2020 that the

“La Niña”

phenomenon had predominated

, affecting the wheat crop with lower production, during the beginning of the year hopes had been renewed.

Unusual rains in mid-January and early February had changed the outlook for soybeans and corn, even raising threshing projections a month ago.

However, as of mid-February, the rainfall was cut off and together with several days with high temperatures, they were a lethal combo for the crops.

First-class soybeans were "snatched" while second-grade soybean lots in "fair to poor" condition increased to more than 1 million hectares.

In this framework, considering the current FOB prices and maintaining the 2020 export shares of the different products of the soy complex, the Rosario Stock Exchange estimates a

low export potential of 2,262 million dollars

due to the loss of 4 million tons.

Soybean crushing would lose 1.5 million tons compared to the previous month's forecast, to 37.5 million tons, while bean exports would lose a similar volume to 5.5 million tons.

"The remaining million tons would be lost in productive reserves, so the level of inventories at the end of the cycle would fall by half a million tons with respect to the current season," said the Rosario entity.

v 1.5

Soy in the last decade

Source:

Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange

Infographic:

Clarín

In any case, the

currencies that would enter through the soy complex continue to greatly exceed those of last year

 In total, between beans, flour and oil, Argentina would export a value of 17,256 million dollars, 45% more than in 2020 .

"Due to the latest adjustments in production, we would no longer be at historical highs, placing us below 2015," they added from the entity.

This is mainly due to the

rise in values ​​in the international market.

The price of soybeans closed in the Chicago market at $ 521 a ton, which represents a 73% increase compared to $ 301 a year ago.

While in the local market, the rise was lower, reaching 53%, from $ 215 to $ 330.

The corn harvest is not immune to the lack of water and from the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange they have already discounted one million tons and a total of 45 million tons is calculated, 6.5 million tons less than the previous season.

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