03/16/2021 19:02
Clarín.com
Opinion
Updated 03/16/2021 20:01
An unwritten rule but defined by the Government is that with soybeans at US $ 520 per ton, they believe they have room to
delay the dollar and avoid a
devaluation
of some magnitude until the elections.
The minister
Martín Guzmán insisted in a talk with the journalist Carlos Pagni that "
the depreciation rate is going to fall
and that is going to have an impact on prices."
Making the dollar rise less than inflation is the way the Government chose (once again) to face an increase in the cost of living, which remains between 3 and 4 percent per month and
is already winning the race in salaries. retirements.
As in 2011 and 2015 but with only US $ 3,500 / US $ 4,000 million of freely available reserves, the official adventure happens because the increase of US $ 160 of a ton of soybeans in the last five months allows the Central Bank this year to
buy about
US $ $ 9 billion
unexpected.
With that perspective and hand in hand with the idea that the backwardness of the dollar can outweigh the fiscal balance when it comes to putting a brake on the increase in food and the cost of living, the Government
throws itself into the pool to spend October .
The other side of this relative abundance is that, to start with, the Government
needs about US $ 6.2 billion
just to meet payments this year with the Paris Club and the
International Monetary Fund.
Regarding the expiration of the US $ 2,400 million in May with the
Paris Club,
the Government has already made the decision that
it will not pay them
and that it will request, at least, one year of extension.
"With the problems of the pandemic and the fall in activity last year, they will not deny us to postpone payment.
We will say the usual: we want to pay but we cannot
," said an official from the Palacio de Hacienda, who, like most of the men of the Government, they speak in off for fear of being retained.
Without paying the Paris Club, there remains
the US $ 3.8 billion with the IMF
that is due in halves in September and December.
Due to this postponement, Minister Martín Guzmán will travel to Washington to negotiate some type of agreement on the basis that the two parties have already made it clear that they do not assign him many chances of reaching a signature in May.
Reaching an agreement with the IMF, in addition to clearing the maturities of 2022 and 2023 that
add up to
US $ 44,000 million
, would allow economic agents to dream of a reduction in the country risk rate that opens the door to external financing.
But the markets continue to show a high level of distrust of the Government and the most palpable result is the weakness of public bonds and the maintenance of the country risk rate at 1,550 points.
Argentine bonds have been falling for seven months, when the debt was restructured.
After the exchange, they were
trading at
US $ 55
discounting a rate of 10% and
now it is at US $ 33
per sheet of US $ 100 with an average annual yield of 17.6%.
The consulting firm Quantum, run by economist Daniel Marx, says about Argentine bonds that current prices could be compared to "non-performing" bonds that "would have a relatively high weight incorporated" if they were
restructured again
.
The
strong dichotomy
that Argentina is experiencing in foreign matters between the greater amount of dollars due to the global rise in soybeans (liquidations for the sale of oil abroad doubled this year) and the disregard for dollarized bonds by investors , define the framework at the beginning of the year.
De-indexing the
official dollar and setting it at
$ 102.40 by the end of the year
constitutes the cornerstone of the new scheme based on temporarily delaying the exchange rate and the expectation of a tightening of the exchange rate in the event of tremors.
Another leg of the scheme is that the Central Bank has in its portfolio $ 2.8 trillion pesos absorbed in the famous Liquidation Letters (Leliq) that, if released, would push down an interest rate that is 38% annual and which is lower than inflation but seems to contain the surplus pesos of the financial system.
And the blue dollar?
At $ 146 it is at the same level as on September 19 of last year, looking down at $ 195 on October 23.
With the
"solidarity" dollar
at $ 158.81 (the quota of US $ 200 with the surcharge of 30% and which adds 35% of the profit advance), the Government put an end to the "mash" of buying in the official and selling in parallel, although it also imposed
a 74% gap.
What would happen if the Government decided to eliminate the 35% advance on Earnings on the solidarity dollar?
The gap would decrease
and therefore there would be less incentive for maneuvers to under-bill exports or over-bill imports.
Will the Government do it?
The question has no place in the Government.
Officials are convinced that any change in the current scheme on free dollars (stocks and Central Bank selling dollars through the sale-purchase of dollarized bonds) could
put at risk the financial stabilization
so costly achieved.
Between the
manifest shortage of vaccines
against Covid 19 and a government focused on attacking judges and the Justice to exonerate Vice President Cristina Kirchner, the delay in the dollar proposed by the Government is presented as a balm even though everyone knows that it is temporary.