What if social destruction was avoided at the end of the crisis?
The job market recovery is expected to be much faster than after the 2008 financial crisis, according to a study published by S&P Global Ratings.
“It then took the euro zone seven years to regain its pre-crisis level.
This time, it should only take four years, ”
predicts Marion Amiot, the organization's economist.
The 2019 employment level should therefore be caught up in 2023. In the meantime, the inevitable rise in unemployment would be limited to two points.
According to S&P, unemployment is not expected to exceed 8.7% in the euro area by the end of 2021.
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Corroborating this analysis, the Banque de France on Tuesday revised downwards its expectation of the unemployment rate to 9.5% at the end of the year, instead of the 10% previously expected.
We can see it in the comparison of the GDP and employment curves in 2020: the fall in activity was much more pronounced than that in employment.
The unemployment rate in the area
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