Less growth, but more inflation: this is the paradox that Germany could face this year.
The Committee of Wise Men advising the Berlin government has revised its forecast for GDP growth to 3.1% this year, against 3.7% previously.
The government, it anticipates 3%, after a fall of 5% last year.
This slowdown is due to the decline in activity in the first quarter, by around 2%, after the surge in Covid infections and the reinstatement of restrictions.
The report of the wise men advocates a 50% increase in the daily rate of vaccination to hope to achieve collective immunity by the end of the summer.
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Still, experts worry about a rebound in inflation to 2.1% at the end of the year.
In February, the rate reached 1.6%, reflecting in particular the rise in VAT after a temporary cut decided in June to revive consumption at half mast.
It experienced a historic plunge of 4.9% last year, unprecedented.
Along with Austria or the Netherlands, Germany is in a group of countries where inflation is above the euro area average.
It reached 0.9% in February, stable compared to January, according to data released Wednesday by Eurostat.
After a 0.5% drop in prices in Germany last year, this rebound can be explained in particular by the rise in energy prices, due to the introduction of a carbon tax and the increase in prices. of oil over a year.
These price pressures are worrying in a country allergic to inflation.
There are increasing calls for an end to the accommodating policy of the European Central Bank.