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Tornadoes and extreme conditions threaten the southern United States.

2021-03-17T00:28:27.882Z


Severe weather conditions, including tornado risks, will threaten more than 50 million people this week in the United States.


Tornadoes and bad weather forecast in the US 1:08

(CNN) ––

Severe weather conditions will threaten more than 50 million people this week in the US, from the southern plains to the southeast of the country.

"This Wednesday a wide area of ​​possible significant severe weather is forecast, including the risk of large hail, destructive winds and multiple strong tornadoes," warned the Storm Prediction Center (SPC, for its acronym in English).

https://dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com/cnn/animations/w_1100,ac_none/210316075014-desktop-severe-threat-wednesday-20210316.mp4

Long-track tornadoes may form, due to the forecast weather pattern and environmental conditions.

This was explained by the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Mobile, Alabama.

This is the class of tornadoes that consistently stay on the ground for an extended period, as opposed to typical tornadoes that stay on the ground for only a few minutes.

There is also the risk of tornadoes at night and in the early morning.

The darkness makes it difficult to observe a tornado on the ground.

Also, these are the most dangerous and deadly type of tornadoes.

The system that will be responsible for these severe storms currently affects the Southwest.

Then you will make your tour through the Rocky Mountains and hit the plains mid week.

This will allow atmospheric conditions conducive to the formation of dangerous storms.

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  • The La Niña phenomenon could worsen this year's tornado season, as it did in the deadly 2011 season.

“We have warmer and more humid air over the Gulf of Mexico that will rise rapidly to the north.

Those large-scale conditions are quite favorable for severe storms.

We believe that some of the smaller details that we often see on busy days, especially with significant tornado potential, will also be present, ”explained Bill Bunting, head of forecasting operations at SPC.

"This is a very strong system that we've been tracking the potential for severe storms as it develops and moves northeast from the plains into the Ohio Valley," meteorologist Jason Holmes of the bureau told CNN. of the National Weather Service in Birmingham, Alabama.

Before the storms hit, Alabama Governor Kay Ivey declared a state of emergency for all 67 counties.

The president urged residents to be prepared for the possible severe event at a general level.

The risk of storms and tornadoes

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The threat of thunderstorms begins Tuesday night in much of Kansas, Oklahoma and northeast and central Texas.

However, the greatest risk will likely be concentrated in the hours of Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning, extending into the morning.

An isolated tornado is possible, especially in central Oklahoma.

However, the main dangers will be large hail and destructive winds.

There is also an additional risk of some strong storms in the south this Tuesday, including parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.

“Our real focus day right now is Wednesday.

We could have a fairly widespread severe weather threat and potentially some severe high-level thunderstorms, ”warned Bunting.

All Wednesday into the night is forecast to be the busiest day in terms of severe thunderstorms this week.

There is currently a "moderate risk" for severe weather in five southern states, according to the SPC.

A level 4 out of 5 is considered "moderate risk" in terms of its possible severity.

The measure includes Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee.

The SPC also explained that a "moderate risk" implies that "widespread severe storms are likely."

In that sense, all threats are possible due to the conditions of this Wednesday: tornadoes, large hail (at least similar to a golf ball) and intense winds of at least 93.3 kilometers per hour.

The components for severe weather are so discouraging that the SPC warns that the hazard may be upgraded to "high risk", something highly unusual, for this Wednesday.

High-risk days are not used lightly.

On average, they only occur once or twice a year.

In fact, no 'high risk' days were recorded in 2020. The last was in May 2019.

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Currently, a morning round of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to sweep across parts of the Gulf of Mexico coastal states.

Some of these storms can be intense.

However, the main threat increases in the afternoon and continues until Wednesday night.

During the afternoon hours, some states –– especially at “moderate” or “enhanced” risks –– could experience the development of supercell thunderstorms.

It is a discrete, individual type of storm, known for unleashing tornadoes.

Not all of these storms produce tornadoes.

However, due to the favorable environment for tornadoes, some of them may generate tornadoes.

“With these discrete storms, all severe weather modes will be possible, including some tornadoes.

And perhaps a significant one, ”the NWS Memphis office said during the morning discussion on Tuesday.

Then there will be a final line of storms along the cold front that will intensify overnight near the Mississippi River and head east through these southern states.

Storms on this front will need to be watched for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.

"This wave of severe storms (in the early morning) will likely have the greatest potential for the strongest long-trajectory tornadoes," according to the NWS office in Birmingham.

Long-term damage from winter storm in Texas 3:34

There could be "potentially some waves of severe weather, starting in the morning, then in the middle of the day, and then later in the evening when the cold front hits," Holmes explained in discussing the forecast for central Alabama, a region which is currently at 'moderate risk'.

By this Thursday, the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will shift to the east coast of the US The SPC is currently monitoring the region from central Florida to central Virginia to detect this risk.

Some areas are currently at a level 3 out of 5, "enhanced risk," according to the Storm Prediction Center.

At this time, the specific timing and threats of the storms are unknown.

Severe storms typical of the south

Severe thunderstorms are not unusual in this part of the country or during this time of year.

Historically, strong tornadoes in mid-March have been more frequent in northern Mississippi and Alabama.

Which aligns closely with this week's storm forecast.

This graph highlights the areas most likely to have severe tornadoes (EF-2 or greater) during the mid-March period.

Darker shades represent a higher likelihood of tornadoes based on historical records from 1982-2011.

“Details will play an important role in how severe conditions are and where storms hit.

I think the important thing is to know that it is a typical severe weather situation in the Southeastern US at the beginning of the season.

This in the sense that the storms will move quickly and continue after dark, "Bunting said.

“One dangerous aspect of tornadoes in the south is that they can occur in the middle while people are sleeping.

Unlike storms known as 'tornado ally' which are generally severe after sunset, "explained CNN meteorologist Chad Myers.

Whenever severe conditions threaten your area, it is important to be prepared.

"It's really important to heed the warnings and not wait until you have a visual confirmation (of the storm)," emphasized Bunting.

“This is the time for people to have a plan to receive the warnings in multiple ways.

This includes setting up weather alert notifications on your phone.

Many weather apps offer alerts based on your location, but your device also allows you to turn on tornado warning notifications in the settings part.

Knowing where to shelter in case a tornado warning is issued is also important, Holmes said.

He says you should go to the lowest floor of a sturdy building, not a mobile home, and put as many walls as possible between you and the outside.

Along with tornadoes, there will also likely be large hail and frequent lightning.

So it is important to stay indoors during the storm.

StormTornado

Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2021-03-17

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