In the radiant "classicissima", one of the five biggest one-day races, the equation remains the same although the course has been changed slightly towards the middle of the race: will the attackers manage to outrun the sprinters? in the Cipressa and especially the Poggio, the last climb whose summit is 5.5 kilometers from the finish on the Riviera?
Since 2017, the punchers have emerged victorious in this recurring match.
With a handful of seconds, the gap recorded on the line of Via Roma where the "staccato" of the race culminates in an intense, indecisive, exciting final.
This year, the soap opera begins again.
Five months after the Tour of Flanders, the last “monument” of a 2020 season with a disrupted calendar, and the domination of a trio that never ceases to rub shoulders and, on occasion, to compete.
To the advantage, for the moment, of van der Poel, winner of Flanders in the autumn and again superior in the Strade Bianche at the beginning of March.
At the recent Tirreno-Adriatico, all three have followed different paths.
Alaphilippe won a stage but then thought above all about the meeting in Sanremo, where he won in 2019. "I had no interest in giving myself fully on the clock," he said. About the final Tuesday of the "two seas race".
In contrast, van Aert, dazzling in form and strength, fought daily for the general classification, where he took second place behind the Slovenian Tadej Pogacar, the big absentee on Saturday.
"I am convinced that I will be in the game for the victory", announces the outgoing winner, who openly dreams of a solo arrival ("that would make the victory unique") or in a small committee.
For his part, van der Poel gave himself up intermittently.
But with what brilliance!
The Dutchman, whose final start at the Strade Bianche caused a sensation, was delighted with his two stage victories.
“I had a perfect week and I'm in good shape for Milan-Sanremo,” said “VDP”, whose Primavera experience is limited to his participation last summer when he was looking for his best condition (13th).
The essential patience
Alone, van der Poel, whose grandfather Raymond Poulidor won in Sanremo here ... 60 years ago, sums up all the ambivalence of the great Italian classic.
It can cause the selection from a distance of the finish, with the high risk of failing as the peloton is still supplied to the Cipressa.
“I don't think that's an option,” he also admitted.
Or, more likely, wait for the Poggio, this climb with 30 curves and four turns, especially selective in the last kilometer before the rapid descent, or bet on the final sprint.
But, for van der Poel, an instinctive runner, the main danger could well be having to show patience, a fundamental quality in the "classicissima" which favors composure and saving energy before the explosion. final.
The sprinters, who hide until the last 50 meters, know how to wait.
The French champion Arnaud Démare (in 2016) and the Norwegian Alexander Kristoff (in 2014) won in this way, where the Australian Caleb Ewan (2nd in 2018), the Slovakian Peter Sagan (2nd in 2013 and 2017) and Australian Michael Matthews (3rd in 2015 and 2020) only came close to victory.
All will still be at the start like the Irishman Sam Bennett, one of the three options of the Alaphilippe team with the Italian Davide Ballerini, or the Italian European champion Giacomo Nizzolo.
In the back of their minds, they have the idea of playing in a less random way than at the neighboring casino in the city of flowers.
After all, who imagined Vincenzo Nibali's solo victory in 2018?
Instructions for use of the 112th edition of Milan-San Remo
The route: 299 kilometers.
Departure at 10:00 am, arrival expected around 5:10 pm.
Passages at Colle del Giovo (516 m - Km 172), capo Mele (67 m - Km 247), capo Cervo (61 m - Km 252), capo Berta (130 m - Km 260).
Last difficulties: Cipressa (239 m - km 277.5) and Poggio (160 m - km 293.5).
Participation (25 teams of 7 riders): AG2R Citroën, Astana, Bahrain, BikeExchange, Bora, Cofidis, Deceuninck, DSM, EF Education, Groupama-FDJ, Ineos, Intermarché, Israel SN, Jumbo, Lotto, Movistar, Qhubeka, Trek and UAE (1st division), Alpecin, Androni, Arkea-Samsic, Bardiani, Novo Nordisk and Total DE (2nd division).
The favorites: Mathieu van der Poel (NED), Wout Van Aert (BEL), Julian Alaphilippe (FRA), Mads Pedersen (DEN), Michael Matthews (AUS), Davide Ballerini (ITA), Caleb Ewan (AUS), Arnaud Démare (FRA), Peter Sagan (SVK), Sam Bennett (IRL)
The big absentees: Tadej Pogacar (SLO), Primoz Roglic (SLO)
The victories: 111 editions contested since the creation of the event in 1907. 51 victories for Italy, 21 for Belgium, 14 for France, 7 for Germany, 5 for Spain, 3 for the Netherlands Low, 2 for Australia, Great Britain, Ireland and Switzerland, 1 for Norway and Poland.
Record wins: 7 for Eddy Merckx (BEL) between 1966 and 1976
The latest winners:
2011: Matt Goss (AUS)
2012: Simon Gerrans (AUS)
2013: Gerald Ciolek (GER)
2014: Alexandre Kristoff (NOR)
2015: John Degenkolb (GER)
2016: Arnaud Démare (FRA)
2017: Michal Kwiatkowski (POL)
2018: Vincenzo Nibali (ITA)
2019: Julian Alaphilippe (FRA)
2020: Wout van Aert (BEL)
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After his grandfather Raymond Poulidor, Mathieu Van der Poel wants to make cycling history