Eduardo Paladini
03/19/2021 13:01
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 03/19/2021 1:01 PM
Beyond the fundamental contribution that
Sergio Massa
made
when dividing Peronism, analysts have no doubts: part of
Mauricio Macri's
victory
in 2015 can
only be explained by the anti-Kirchner vote
that he brought together.
It wasn't so much that they loved him, but rather they didn't love her companions.
Moreover, there are those who still believe today that the former chief of staff could have been the president if he took a clearer stance in the campaign against his former and current ally.
Doubt for the story.
And in the present what happens?
Will there be a useful vote this year too?
A consulting firm that has been measuring the electoral scenario got fully involved in the issue.
And
Clarín
advances these data this Friday.
It is not just any pollster:
Pérez Aramburú & Asociados
officially worked for the
Cambiemos
government
.
This newspaper anticipated days ago a first cut of its last survey (1,409 cases throughout the country, from February 23 to 25): how many are the "No crack" and how could they vote this year.
First conclusion regarding the useful vote: the trend continues and today it would exceed 20 points of the total.
It may be key for
Together for Change
, but it would not yet be enough to beat
Frente de Todos
, which maintains a high rate of hard support.
The full 47-page study report begins with an
"Analytical Summary
.
"
These are some of its main conclusions:
- "Regarding the
perceived social situation
, Argentines recognize that
inflation has become the
country's
main problem
, increasing six points compared to the measurement of November-December 2020. Secondly, there is insecurity."
- "
52%
of the population evaluates that the
general situation of the country
is
negative
(four points less than in November). In any case, this improvement does not translate into a better evaluation of the
current situation
. Likewise, the retrospective evaluation is deteriorates: 59% consider that the country is worse than a year ago ".
- "The current
economic situation
is evaluated
negatively
by almost
60%
of those surveyed and regularly by 25% of them. In these cases, the main cause of this economic panorama is associated with the measures taken by the current government (43%). Then the inheritance of the previous administration (23%) and the impact of the pandemic worldwide (21%) are mentioned ".
- "In relation to the
Government's evaluation
,
Alberto Fernández's
performance
is at similar values to that at the end of last year: he continues to show greater disapproval (51%) than approval (37%)".
According to the Pérez Aramburú poll, more people believe that Cristina Kirchner makes decisions in the Executive Power.
- "Regarding the issue of
who makes the decisions in the Executive Power
, the trend observed previously is maintained: about half of those surveyed (49%) point to
Cristina Kirchner
as the person who ultimately decides important government issues –In front of the 36% who consider that
Alberto Fernández does it
- ".
- "Regarding the
dispute over the opposition leadership
, the offer is without a clear winner. Almost a third of Argentines cannot mention which leader leads the opposition. Among the two people who stand out are
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
and
Mauricio Macri
" .
- "The
Head of Government of CABA
continues to be the
best evaluated leader in
the country (46% positive), followed by
María Eugenia Vidal
(45%). For their part, both Cristina and Macri increased their popularity in the order of 6% and 4% respectively ".
Trends for legislative
When the electoral chapter arrives,
Pérez Aramburú
measures the general trend from the start.
Are people more predisposed to vote for the ruling party or for the opposition this year?
Although they win the second by 11 points –with 21% undecided–, the
balance may leave the Government relatively happy.
Why?
Because while the health and economic crises do not give truce,
"the candidates of the ruling party" add up to 34%
;
far from the 48% obtained by the Fernándezes in the last presidential election, but not so bad for a legislative one where to win it can reach with about 40 points.
On
the opposing side
,
45%
will have to be divided into a varied offer.
And the consultancy specifically asks about those fronts:
Together for Change
captures about half of this unofficial trend (that is, it would be around
22
basis
points
).
The parties of the left, right and non-K Peronism come in a clearly lower echelon and with even numbers.
In the comparison with 2019, the
loyalty of the voters
remains high: 84% of those who opted for Kirchnerism would do so again this year and 81% of the macristas would continue on the opposition side.
Regarding the latter, and from a minority group, the most opposed are the right-wing militants (94%).
And then, yes, there is the question about the useful vote of the opposition: "Some people say that in these legislative elections they will vote for the
candidate they like the most
regardless of whether they have many or few chances of winning and others say that they will vote for the
candidate who has the best chance of beating Kirchnerism
. What are you going to do? ".
The analysis is made based on the 45% that would favor opposition candidates.
And of that group,
more than half (52%)
admit that their decision will be clearly
anti-K
.
It would be about 23 points of the total of voters.
A lot of.
In the finest analysis of the anti-K, the useful vote is clearly the
majority among those who define themselves as macristas
(75%) and radicals (53%).
On the other hand,
37% of the 45% opposition
(about 17 points of the total) would choose the
candidates they like the most
regardless of their chances of winning.
They complete the "does not know / does not answer".