It is estimated that 12 seats have not yet been distributed • Meaning: The turnout can change the picture of the seats and decide between the blocs • The next disappearance: the behavior of the elected representatives in the coalition negotiations stage
In recent weeks, the competing parties have been doing everything in their power to step up the campaign, sharpen messages and make final preparations for the field headquarters, which will begin operating in the next day at the height of their vigor.
However, two big question marks are still hovering over the candidates' heads, ones that may at the moment of truth decide the issue: what the undecided will do in the end, and what the voting rates will be.
In a battle where the small parties may decide the composition of the next government, these questions are intensified several times over.
In all recent polls one statistic has stood out: the high proportion of those who have not yet decided who to vote for.
The same data shows that about 12 seats are still on the table and have not been distributed to anyone.
That's a lot.
Their redistribution may lead to surprising results that no survey has predicted.
When the battle is so close and no one knows what the results will be anyway, any change here or there can cause real drama when the truth results start to flow.
A tour of the logistics warehouse of the Election Commission // Photo: Yoni Rickner
Four parties have waged the battle in the current campaign from the bottom, close to the blocking percentage.
Sometimes kissing a little above it or a little below it, sometimes moving away, and back for goodness sake.
The blocking percentage is found entirely in the statistical sampling error of regular surveys - hence the difficulty of predicting the result, not to mention last-minute changes that may also occur on election day itself.
But the most significant statistic for the fate of those parties - Meretz, Blue and White, Ram and Religious Zionism - is undoubtedly the blocking percentage. This is a statistic that no one knows how to expect. The turnout was actually the opposite. In the second election the turnout was higher than in the first, and in the third it was up again in the second. Now in the fourth, who knows. Netanyahu would very much like one of the left-wing parties not to enter, which would increase his chances of getting 61 seats for the right-wing coalition. On the other hand, if religious Zionism also falls, the chances of passing the 61 seats will be zero.
No promises - no violations
Just as the behavior of the undecided voters and the percentage of votes are not yet known, so too the behavior of the elected may be unpredictable.
The right is automatically counted in the right-wing bloc that will give Netanyahu the power if he achieves 61, but Bennett himself did not promise that he would do so.
Saar promised not to sit in the government under Netanyahu, but would his promise be relevant even if he achieved a much smaller number of seats than he estimated?
Nor did Benny Ganz say the last word.
Although he undertakes this time not to enter, he did so the previous time and did not keep his word.
And that's even before we talk about Mansour Abbas, whose intentions are vague from the first moment.
The election is still open and completely unpredictable.
Only one thing is clear - that there is nothing to be surprised if in the end very surprised.