Just before the polls open, Netanyahu's dream scenario is still a long way off - but no longer impossible • Bennett and Saar may also make their own surprise, but the winning card may be in the sleeve of Mansour Abbas.
The leaders of the parties in the 24th Knesset elections // Photos: Yehuda Peretz, Moshe Shai, Elad Gutman, Yossi Zeliger, Oren Ben Hakon, Arik Sultan, Yehoshua Yosef, Elad Malka, Yonatan Zindel, Flash 90 and Kfir Ziv
A majority of 61 to the right
This is a scenario that so far Netanyahu has not been able to fulfill in the three previous election campaigns, and the prime minister's super task in the current election.
So far, according to the poll, it seems that this is a borderline goal, and although few polls have indicated that this is possible, it is a novelty compared to previous rounds of elections, in which there was no poll that showed that Netanyahu has a coalition of 61.
Netanyahu to Bennett: "Commit to the government without Yair Lapid and without rotation"
What works against Netanyahu in realizing the desired scenario for him is the fact that Naftali Bennett, who in all previous rounds of elections was an integral part of the right-wing bloc headed by him, has positioned himself in the current election campaign as a Libra that is not committed to either side.
In any situation, Netanyahu will need Bennett to form a coalition, and it is impossible to form a right-wing government without him.
If a right-wing coalition is formed, it will be the most homogeneous coalition possible, of parties that have already sat together in the past, and will have no problem cooperating even later if they win the necessary majority together.
Chance of success: Medium.
A coalition of 61 against Netanyahu, without the Arabs
In the previous three rounds of elections, Netanyahu's opponents, who in two of them succeeded in creating a blocking bloc and preventing it from forming a government, failed to form a government themselves when they were given the mandate to do so.
Lapid: "Netanyahu escapes confrontation, the proposal stands" // Photo: From Yair Lapid's Facebook
What is different in the current round of elections compared to its predecessors is the entry of Gideon Saar into the field as head of an independent party, and the decision of Naftali Bennett not to explicitly belong to one of the blocs.
Another thing that puts the bloc in jeopardy is the fact that left-wing parties have reached the current split elections more than ever - while they are in danger of not passing the blocking percentage.
If they all pass, the bloc may grow beyond its current strength.
This fact could eventually lead to the opposition bloc growing and gaining a majority in the coalition to oust Netanyahu without the Arab factions.
If so, it will be a non-homogeneous coalition that will find it difficult to function over time, as it will include significant left-wing parties on the one hand, and right-wing parties on the other.
The chance of success: very low - no survey showed that this is a reasonable scenario.
Naftali Bennett and Gideon Saar connect
Yair Lapid's plan to receive the mandate to form the government from the president depends on having a future led by him to be the largest party in the left-wing bloc.
In such a case, if Netanyahu fails in the work of forming a coalition, he may receive the mandate from the president.
But it will be difficult for Lapid to form a government due to the boycott of the ultra-Orthodox, and due to Naftali Bennett's commitment not to sit under Lapid as prime minister under any circumstances.
To get around the hurdle, Gideon Saar and Naftali Bennett may unite after the election, which could create a joint list that will exceed Lapid's number of seats in its number of seats - and get the mandate to form the government in its place.
In such a case, there is a chance that the government train work that will leave the Likud out will succeed.
Depends, of course, on the number of seats each of the relevant players will receive.
The ultra-Orthodox factions may also join such a move and explain that after Netanyahu's failure to form a government, and since this is a right-wing government, there is no impediment to dismantling the alliance with the prime minister and preventing fifth elections.
The problem with this scenario is that beyond the ability to obtain the required number of seats, it is unclear whether the ultra-Orthodox will agree to sit with Lapid, even though he is not the prime minister, and whether they will agree to cooperate with Avigdor Lieberman.
It is also unclear whether Lapid will agree to serve under Bennett and Saar.
If such a coalition is formed, the only thing it will have in common will be the desire to oust Netanyahu from power.
On all other things, the parties are expected to disagree, and this is a coalition that will be very difficult to operate over time.
Chance of success: Medium to low.
Surprise with the scales - Naftali Bennett or Mansour Abbas
Only two parties did not belong to any camp throughout the election campaign: the right of Naftali Bennett and the PM of Mansour Abbas. As such, neither will break any promise if he decides to go with Netanyahu, or join those who oppose him. There is a chance that the government train work that will leave the Likud out will succeed.
Photo: Courtesy of Channel 20
Netanyahu has no coalition without Bennett.
If 61 are not achieved with him, it is estimated that Netanyahu's chances of forming another coalition are zero.
Really?
Quite a few elements in the political system believe that the alliance between Netanyahu and Abbas is stronger than it seems, and when necessary the prime minister will be able to present a coalition based on the votes of the PM faction. Netanyahu said he would not, For him to do so - however in the end, it will all depend on alternatives.
Bennett may also surprise and not join, for example, the right-wing coalition of 61, which is only possible with him.
Bennett will do this only if he concludes that there is another coalition.
It is estimated that if his non-joining leads to another election, Bennett will prefer to come under Netanyahu and not be responsible for another election, fifth in number.
Chance of success: difficult to estimate - depends solely on numbers.
Fifth election
Four times there was no decision.
Although this time it seems that both sides are more determined and eager to form a coalition at all costs, including with the Arab MKs, it may still be possible that neither of them will be able to form a coalition this time either.
Netanyahu is more determined that the date of the rotation will take place in November, and Bnei Gantz will take over as prime minister.
The opposition also arrives more determined and ready for any vehicle that will oust Netanyahu from power.
Chance of success (or rather, failure): Not bad at all, with all the sorrow involved.
