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British Prime Minister Johnson: Risky Vaccination Strategy
Photo: Jeremy Selwyn / AP
From the point of view of the EU Commission, the timing could not have been more appropriate.
On Wednesday morning they decided to control the export of coronavirus vaccines even more strictly.
Minutes before the public announcement came the first breaking news from Italy: Investigators had found 29 million pre-packaged doses of AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine in a warehouse in Italy - from the British-Swedish manufacturer that has been breaking its delivery commitments for months.
The commission knew about the Catalent warehouse in Anagni, a town between Rome and Naples, at the end of last week.
On Saturday, she asked for an inspection, a statement from the Italian government said.
Health Minister Roberto Speranza ordered the inspection.
The amount of vaccine discovered is enormous - it corresponds to almost half of all doses that have so far been vaccinated in all 27 EU countries together.
The find raises several questions: Why is AstraZeneca hoarding millions of vaccine doses in the middle of the EU while the company falls dramatically below its delivery commitments to the EU?
Where did the vaccine come from?
Where should he go
AstraZeneca could miss next delivery target
The answers were initially contradicting on Wednesday.
The Italian press said the vaccine came at least in part from the factory of Dutch AstraZeneca contractor Halix and was supposed to go to the UK.
The Italian authorities said the vaccines were intended for Belgium - but apparently not for its residents, but possibly for an AstraZeneca distribution center.
Whether that was true and where the vaccine was to be delivered from there remained unclear.
An AstraZeneca statement said 13 of the 29 million cans were made outside the EU and intended for export to poorer countries.
16 million should be sent to EU countries after a quality control - ten million in the last week of March, the rest in April.
In the EU Commission, however, AstraZeneca has now gambled away all trust.
According to the contract, the group should deliver 120 million cans to the EU in the first quarter.
Then AstraZeneca reduced the commitment to 80, later to 40 and finally to 30 million.
Even this amount will probably not be reached by the end of March, the commission suspects.
The promises made by AstraZeneca "change practically every hour," say the Brussels authority.
"Nobody believes you anymore."
Millions of cans unused in the warehouse for months?
This now also applies to the assertions made by AstraZeneca about the vaccines discovered in Italy.
This is by no means a "supply".
The process of manufacturing vaccines is "very complex and time-consuming," and after filling you have to wait for quality control.
In the EU Commission, on the other hand, one finds it “extremely unusual” that pre-packaged vaccine doses are stored in such quantities.
There are also doubts about the claim that 16 of the 29 million cans should go to EU countries.
AstraZeneca did not announce a larger delivery recently, says a commission spokesman.
Rather, it is "very plausible" that at least a significant part of the vaccines are destined for Great Britain - because there they are urgently waiting for an AstraZeneca delivery from the EU.
A British government spokeswoman said on Wednesday that her country was not expecting a delivery from Catalent from Italy - but admitted that a delivery from the Dutch manufacturer Halix is expected.
The Commission believes that a large part or even all of the vaccines stored in Italy come from this company.
If that's true, there may have been millions of vaccine doses in the warehouse for months, while people are dying of Covid-19 all over the continent.
Because the Halix plant in Leiden, the Netherlands, only emits an estimated five million cans per month.
But not a single one of them has so far gone to EU countries.
The relevant approval from the EU Medicines Agency EMA is missing - more than six months after the contract with the EU was signed.
It is now assumed in Brussels that AstraZeneca is deliberately taking its time so that the vaccine that has been produced in the meantime can be exported - to Great Britain, for example.
The EMA would also check the Leiden plant after an application for approval "from the basement to the roof", as one of the commission employees put it.
The suspicion: AstraZeneca may have hoarded vaccines not only in Italy, but also in Leiden that are supposed to remain undetected.
Federal government wants to use vaccine fund for the EU
For the EU Commission, the Halix affair comes at the best possible time.
It was only at the end of January that it decided on a mechanism that would force pharmaceutical manufacturers to approve exports of corona vaccines.
The tightening decided on Wednesday stipulates that not only the deliveries of non-contractual companies can be targeted, but that justice should also be a criterion: Countries that do not let vaccines out of the country themselves should in future no longer leave any vaccines from the EU to get.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is clearly targeting Great Britain.
The country is way ahead of the EU when it comes to vaccinating its citizens - also because it has received at least ten million doses from the EU.
In contrast, the British have not yet delivered any to the EU.
Von der Leyen wants to present her plan to the EU heads of state and government at their video summit on Thursday.
Although the Commission could use the sharpened mechanism on its own, the approval of the member states would be important - and the discovery of the vaccine warehouse in Italy should now make it more likely.
One was "pleased" with the find in Italy, said a high-ranking official in the federal government, which has so far been extremely cautious about export bans.
In the case of the vaccine from Italy, on the other hand, one can obviously imagine accessing it - especially since AstraZeneca fell short of its delivery commitments many times over.
"Perhaps there is now an opportunity to increase deliveries," said the officer.
Johnson's vaccination success could collapse
It could then be uncomfortable for the British.
Because Johnson's vaccination success is based on a risky strategy: incoming vaccines are used immediately, there is hardly any stock for the necessary second vaccination.
The result: almost 42 percent of the British have already received a first dose of vaccine, in the EU it is only nine percent on average.
However, only 3.5 percent of the British received the second dose and thus the full immune protection - even less than in the EU, where it is 4.1 percent.
The dangerous thing is that there shouldn't be too much time between the first and second dose - according to the World Health Organization, a maximum of 42 days.
Should larger deliveries fail, millions of British people could lose their vaccination protection.
Apparently people have become cautious in London.
A spokeswoman said that "there currently does not seem to be any authorization to export the vaccine from the Netherlands."
After the tightening of EU export controls decided on Wednesday, London was unusually conciliatory, suddenly emphasizing common ground again.
"We are all facing the same pandemic," said a statement by the British government and the EU Commission that was disseminated on Wednesday evening.
Try to find a "mutual benefit" relationship.
Almost at the same time, however, Johnson appeared in the London Parliament - and warned of "arbitrary blockades" of exports.
Companies would then check whether it makes sense to invest in such countries.
That, according to Johnson, was "just one careful note."