Final stretch for a climate change law challenged by lack of ambition

A decade ago, the Cortes asked Spain to have a climate change law.

And it is more than five years since the Paris Agreement against global warming was approved without Spain, one of the most exposed countries in Europe to the negative impacts of the climate crisis, having approved a specific rule to comply with that treaty.

But the Spanish climate change law has entered the final stretch and in the first weeks of April it is expected that Congress will give it the go-ahead to conclude the proceedings in the Senate.

At that time, the country will finally have an instrument with the force of law to help the economy as a whole to disengage from fossil fuels, the main responsible for greenhouse gases.

The overall objective of the law, in line with the Paris Agreement, is to achieve climate neutrality by 2050: that only gases that can be captured by sinks, such as forests, are emitted.

But the harshest criticisms against the norm made by some parties and green NGOs focus on the lack of ambition of the intermediate goals for this decade.

The law will establish, according to what has already been agreed by the parties - and except last minute surprise - that Spain will have to emit 23% less greenhouse gases in 2030 than in 1990. "It is a very low objective that is based on very conservative calculations" , says Inés Sabanés, deputy of Equo.

"It is not a clear and brave bet," adds Alicia Cantero, from Greenpeace.

Apparently, and if the objective of the Spanish law is compared with that of the EU and the European powers, there is no debate whatsoever: the goal set for 2030 taking 1990 as a starting point falls far short.

Compared to the 23% cut in Spain, the EU proposes a reduction of 55%, more than double.

But when you look at the place from which each one starts, reality becomes very nuanced.

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PSOE and Unidas Podemos, which together promote this law, intend to include in the regulation a clause so that the goals are periodically revised upwards.

And the first revision would be in 2023. But both parties defend the 23% cut.

"We have a very important delay that makes us be in a particularly difficult position," says Juan López de Uralde, deputy for United We Can.

"In 2018, while the European Union had reduced its emissions as a whole by 23% since 1990, Spain had increased them by 16%," he adds.

Or put another way: the problem is that the EU reached its peak in emissions in 1990, while Spain did not reach it until 2007 for a mixture of economic reasons and a lack of climate measures.

The 23% goal is an “important effort” because Spain “started at a disadvantage”, defends López de Uralde, whose party presented a bill in 2018 in which he advocated a 35% cut in 2030. “From the beginning of the processing we have understood that ambition had to be increased ”, says this deputy, who defends the upward revision system that the law will establish and other aspects such as the commitment to have a 100% renewable electricity system in 2050. And adds about the criticism from other parties: "the worst case scenario would be not having the law."

"The calculations to set the 23% target were made before the pandemic," says Sabanés, who recalls that European recovery funds will serve to accelerate decarbonization.

In addition, the covid led to a historic drop in emissions in 2020.

Hugo Morán, Secretary of State for the Environment, admits the influence that these factors will have in the future.

For this reason, he adds, the regulation has been conceived as something "dynamic" and the first upward revision of the goals has been brought forward to 2023.

"The law is born old and the objective is not very ambitious because it does not comply with science", criticizes Cantero.

But what does science say?

The Paris Agreement does not speak of intermediate goals, but of achieving neutrality of emissions in the world from the middle of the century to contain warming.

The safety limit is to ensure that the increase in temperature stays below two degrees with respect to pre-industrial levels.

And strive, so that it does not exceed 1.5 degrees, according to the pact.

In both cases, net zero emissions must be reached, but to achieve the 1.5 target it must be reached earlier, in 2050;

and a 2018 report from the IPCC - the scientists who advise the UN on climate change - indicated that this required that by 2030 global emissions of CO₂ - the main one of greenhouse gases - should have been reduced by 45% , but compared to 2010 levels.

The 23% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 that is contemplated by the Spanish law in process translates into a cut of almost 37.9% when 2010 is taken as a reference point, much closer to the 45% that it put on table the IPCC in its report.

"I do not agree that the objective of the law is not ambitious", argues Mikel González-Eguino, researcher at the Basque Center for Climate Change (BC3).

"The objective has to be ambitious, but it has to be able to be met," adds this specialist in energy transition, who recalls that the European Commission has applauded the energy and climate plan presented by Spain, in which the cut was already established. 23% of emissions by 2030. "We are well above the efforts required by the Commission," Hugo Morán stresses on this Brussels assessment.

But, is the Spanish objective very far from that of the EU and the main European countries?

European Union: a 55% cut

In December, the European institutions decided to increase their cut-off target for 2030 and went from 40% to 55%, always with respect to 1990. If compared with the EU emissions in 2010, the cut would be 47.8%, for above the IPCC recommendation.

Europe is now processing its climate law, which will be passed this year.

Germany: a 55% cut

In 2019, the country passed the Federal Climate Protection Law, which sets a 55% cut as a target for 2030 compared to 1990 levels. If compared to 2010, the reduction would be 40.3%.

France: less 40% of emissions

The country was the host in 2015 of the climate summit that approved the Paris Agreement.

The socialist François Hollande approved that same year his "energy transition law for green growth."

The standard sets as a target for 2030 a cut in emissions of 40% compared to 1990. If 2010 is taken as a reference, the cut will be 35.7%, two points less than the target for Spain.

United Kingdom: 68% less emissions

In 2008, the UK was the first country in the world to pass a climate change law.

A commission periodically sets haircut goals.

The last update, from 2016, established that by 2032 the country will have to reduce them by 57% compared to 1990. But in December Boris Johnson promised that the cut would be 68%.

If compared to 2010 levels, it would be a 58.3% decrease, well above what the IPCC called for.

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