Germany is in the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic.
If Berlin scientists have their way, this will unfold its force by May.
Coronavirus pandemic in Germany
: Due to the high number of Covid 19 cases, there is a lockdown until April 18.
The
corona mutation B.1.1.7
continues to
cause
great concern
and predominates as a coronavirus variant.
Scientists make
a spectacular forecast
for the
7-day incidence
for April and May
.
Munich / Berlin - The statement does not only make people sit up and take notice in the coronavirus pandemic in Austria.
Vienna's Mayor Michael Ludwig (SPÖ) said on March 25th with a view to the third Corona wave: "We still have to get through the next eight to ten weeks until a larger part of the population is vaccinated."
Austria (around 8.9 million inhabitants) and Germany (around 83 million inhabitants) are now close to each other.
And, as is well known, the insidious corona virus knows no national borders.
The Covid 19 crisis is far from over in both countries.
This confirms the statement made by the Vienna City Hall chief.
Another example: SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach is calling for even tougher lockdown rules like a prayer wheel.
Corona pandemic in Germany: "Despite the emergency brake, the third wave will lead to higher incidences"
If, however, Berlin scientists have their way, a spectacularly high 7-day incidence between the capital and Bavaria, between Hamburg, North Rhine-Westphalia and Baden-Württemberg can no longer be prevented.
Specifically, this emerges from a modeling carried out by the Department of Traffic System Planning and Traffic Electronics at the TU Berlin.
Corona infection events: |
Contribution to the R-value: |
Contacts in your own household |
0.5 |
mutual private visits |
0.6 |
Contacts at work |
0.2 |
Contacts in school |
0.2 |
Source: MODUS-COVID report by the Transport System Planning and Telematics Division of the TU Berlin (March 19, 2021)
"Despite the emergency brake, the third wave will lead to a maximum of higher incidences than the second wave, since the mutation B.1.1.7 is significantly more contagious than the previous virus variants," says the summary of the scientific paper.
The model experiment assumes that unprotected contacts in private households, at work and in schools in particular contribute massively to the infection process.
Previous lockdown rules and protective measures as well as the current speed of vaccinations are taken into account.
But: According to the study, the "emergency brake will not be sufficient to keep the third wave smaller than the second".
To classify: According to federal and state resolutions, the emergency brake is provided regionally from a respective 7-day incidence of 100 and more.
Germany in the third corona wave: high incidences expected due to mutation B.1.1.7
The TU Berlin report goes on to say: “Our simulations show that even with the restrictions from January, the third wave will have higher incidences than the second.
This is due to the significantly higher transferability of the mutation B.1.1.7 compared to the wild type. "
The corona vaccinations and the warmer weather would not have enough effect to prevent the third wave in Germany.
“The dampening effect that we expect from the warmer season from April onwards has already been taken into account in our model;
without this, the third wave to be expected would be twice as high, ”is explained.
The results refer, among other things, to the support of aerosol researchers at the TU Berlin.
The model henceforth asserts that the closure of the retail trade will have no effect on containment.
Furthermore, a night curfew is seen as unsuitable because it is assumed that “the population will switch to earlier visiting hours in the medium term”.
Coronavirus pandemic in Germany: How severe is the third corona wave?
Instead, the researchers advise that “unprotected contacts must be reduced”, ie those in private spaces.
The other piece of advice is to put it simply: test, test, test.
Otherwise, “a strong third wave, with exponential growth already at this point in time and incidences of over 2,000” is forecast.
+
The expected corona incidence curve in Germany in April and May according to the MODUS-COVID report from the Department of Traffic System Planning and Traffic Telematics at TU Berlin.
© Screenshot of the Transport System Planning and Telematics Division / TU Berlin
A “higher hospital burden” than in December is also unavoidable.
And: Without a “bundle of measures”, the peak of the third wave is expected in mid-May, whereas a decrease in the number of infections will not occur until July.
The scientists put this into perspective: the extreme incidences would only occur if the schools were to reopen completely after Easter and politicians decided to relax far-reaching.
In summary, the report advises not to do so.
Otherwise, the large-scale incidences shown here are over 1000. Bitter prospects - for Germany and for neighboring Austria.
(pm)