03/25/2021 10:14 PM
Clarín.com
Opinion
Updated 03/25/2021 10:14 PM
Argentina will not have an agreement this year with the IMF and will go through the entire electoral period
without Washington's exchange protection
.
This is a strong bet: between April and June many dollars will enter, but the second semester will be dry of bills.
Clarín
anticipated Argentina's intention two weeks ago.
It was the confidential decision that Cristina Kirchner was pushing by firm hand and the exclusive information handled by the "wolves" of Wall Street.
This week, trading with the Fund entered a “point of no return”.
The coup de grace was given by the vice president herself: enraged by the rejection of her impractical refinancing ideas.
It was after Kristalina Georgieva did not accept a survey made by Martín Guzmán.
The minister transferred Cristina's proposal to Washington: to make a "light" agreement for a 20-year term and with an interest rate of 1% per year.
Luis Cubeddu and Julia Kozak had anticipated it to Sergio Chodos.
And Georgieva confirmed it clearly and forcefully:
"Impossible
.
"
Washington officials used the manual of the good bureaucrat: They claimed that there is no such credit in the rigorous regulation of the IMF.
Without saying so - so as not to escalate the fight - the IMF
treated the vice president as "ignorant"
.
Guzmán looked for a shortcut to the issues.
He agreed with Kristalina to pay this year's maturities with the extra money that the IMF will deliver to Argentina.
The IMF will send 4.45 billion dollars to Argentina.
An international aid to fight against Covid.
That money, instead, will be used to pay the unpaid maturities.
Dollars that are squandered to
build the anti-IMF electoral narrative
that Cristina falls in love with.
In other words, it will serve to make electoral politics and not - its true destiny - to buy vaccines, stabilize the dollar or encourage reactivation.
Now, Guzmán will travel to Europe in mid-April and there he will ask to postpone the payment of the Paris Club.
Before traveling to Buenos Aires yesterday, the minister managed to put a "pulmotor" on the negotiation.
Guzmán said in Washington that he shares Cristina's position.
But unlike the vice president,
the minister wants an agreement
.
Even if it's for after the elections.
The head of the Treasury is concerned about the lack of dollars.
Cristina and Guzmán had a frontal and sincere meeting in El Calafate.
The minister told the vice president that to win the elections it is necessary to control the dollar and that for that an agreement - or coverage - of the IMF is key.
Washington decided not to confront Argentina.
Georgieva will avoid answering Cristina.
On Thursday, therefore, the IMF auditors issued a statement where they speak of "technical coincidences" with Guzmán.
They always use the potential.
The "wolves" of Wall Street say that this text was made to keep alive the possibility of a deal.
Guzmán had a reserved meeting with bondholders in NYC: He promised
a deficit of only 3% this year
.
Guzmán -he said- bet on the economic revival and the price of soybeans.
The construction index does not stop growing and the works plan implemented by Gabriel Katopodis accelerates the activity.
The "sharks" of Manhattan - anyway - have qualms with Guzmán.
There is
a very adverse climate towards the Casa Rosada
.
Axel Kicillof was also added to the criticism.
The Ad Hoc Group's lawsuit against Buenos Aires is due to a conviction among the “wolves” of Wall Street: that Kicillof refuses to negotiate over an electoral political issue.
This Thursday there was a very strong crossover between Minister Pablo López and the bondholders.
A statement from the Ad Hoc Group was exaggerated and aggressive: it
tried to render the minister and Kicillof inoperative
.
The “papelón” –almost simultaneously- that Alberto and Cristina starred in exacerbates the ultra.
The vice said that Argentina does not pay the debt and the President - at the same time - that he is going to honor his obligations.
Alberto's threat
Cristina and Alberto in a ceremony in La Plata at the end of 2020
Both come from strong disagreements.
All collaborators deny it, but in the "red circle" they insist that there was a serious altercation between the two.
They claim that
Alberto threatened to leave and Cristina –in a bad way– had to back down
.
Therefore, Georgieva backed and came to the rescue of Guzmán.
He knows that he is "under friendly fire", but acknowledges that he is the most rational minister to negotiate.
It happened in the meeting that both had in Washington.
One part was alone.
According to IMF spokesmen, Georgieva - at that time - questioned him about the political situation in Argentina.
The head of the IMF had a dossier prepared by her political analysts.
This work - from the Department of the Western Hemisphere - speaks of
the doubts generated by the fights between Alberto and Cristina
and the President's turn to the radicalized positions of the vice president.
Also, the weakness of the Cabinet.
In Washington, in addition, there are criticisms of the poverty of the opposition's proposals.
Argentine bonds are already in a free tailspin.
But Cristina's words made the country risk record hit the record: 1,600 points.
It is about the impact of the “Cristina effect”.
Every time he thinks about the economy and refloats his old proposals, Argentine assets are pulverized.
The vice president knows it, but she can't help it: a lot of ego and contempt for Alberto's softness.
In November 2018, Cristina evaluated being a candidate for president.
He had a floor of 30% of the votes and Mauricio Macri made water everywhere.
At that time he asked Alberto Fernandez to do a poll on Wall Street.
I wanted to know what the "wolves" would think if she won and was president.
Alberto entrusted the task to an economist he trusted: Guillermo Nielsen.
The report was terse.
Nielsen himself communicated the conclusions to him in a long conversation alone with Cristina.
That test concluded that a re-election of Cristina was going to
cause distrust and a financial collapse against Argentina
.
That report was the first thing that led Cristina to rethink her candidacy and look for a replacement for President: that was the genesis of Alberto's projection.
This idea has now re-emerged among the "wolves" of Wall Street.
The more Cristina influences the Casa Rosada, the worse the government's international financial credibility.
Thus, the “Cristina effect” directly harms Alberto.
Now the Casa Rosada had an international victory: the head of the Andean Development Corporation was displaced.
CAF manages a financial package of 14,000 million dollars.
Its owner, Luis Carranza, had a hundred complaints of workplace harassment and unjustified dismissals.
Among them the prestigious Argentine economist - he acted in Cavallo's time - Ricardo Sigwald.
Disgust cost him his life.
Gustavo Beliz's team was the one that promoted and added to the claim of many countries against the Peruvian Carranza.
The issue was evaluated at the UIA and AEA.
The priests of the powerful Business Association summoned Jorge Remes Lenicov.
This is a storm pilot.
The meeting will be on Monday.
Remes drew up a proposal to try to get out of the "slide" of Argentine decadence.
It is a "memo" of 25 pages.
It had a
strong impact on the "red circle
.
"
The former minister does not say so, but it follows from the text.
He proposes to do the opposite of what Cristina, Macri, and Alberto did.
Look also
Cristina Kirchner against reality, a battle that begins and ends every day
Hebe de Bonafini: "The President and Minister Guzmán were deceiving us all the time"