Kim Jong Un reappears after weapons test 0:28
Hong Kong (CNN) -
- Two ballistic missiles fired by North Korea fell harmlessly into the sea on Thursday, but experts say the launch is further proof that Kim Jong Un's growing military arsenal poses a significant threat to Korea. South, Japan and even the continental US.
"The United States and its Asian allies regard North Korea as a serious security threat," the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) stated bluntly in the first sentence of a lengthy look at Pyongyang's military capabilities updated in November.
Perhaps the most disturbing statement in the CFR report is this: "North Korea could have more than 60 nuclear weapons, according to analyst estimates, and has successfully tested missiles that could attack the United States with a nuclear warhead."
The ballistic missiles Pyongyang tested on Thursday, the second weapons test in less than a week, were of shorter range, North Korean state media reported on Friday.
North Korean state media images of Thursday's missile test.
The missiles were "new type and newly developed tactical guided projectiles" capable of carrying a 2.5-ton warhead and traveled 600 kilometers (372 miles), state news agency KCNA said.
After the test, Ri Pyong Chol, North Korea's chief of weapons development, said that the development of this weapons system "is of great importance to strengthen the country's military power and deter all kinds of military threats that exist in the country. Korean peninsula '.
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That would seem to indicate that these specific weapons do not endanger any US territory.
But Japan, America's most important ally in the Pacific and home to numerous American military bases that house tens of thousands of American personnel, was alarmed.
Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga described the launches, which were made in the direction of Japan, as "a threat to the peace and security" of his country.
Thursday's test came as the last stage of the torch relay began for this summer's Olympics in Fukushima, Japan.
North Korea has previously shown that it has missiles that can hit Japan.
In 2017, it tested two ballistic missiles that flew over the country before landing in the Pacific Ocean.
Later that year, Pyongyang tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Hwasong-15, which soared into the sky before splashing into the waters off the coast of Japan.
If it had flown on a standard trajectory, said David Wright, an expert with the Union of Concerned Scientists, it could have traveled 13,000 kilometers.
"Such a missile would have more than enough range to reach Washington and indeed any part of the continental United States," Wright said in a statement at the time, although he noted that range would probably not be possible. if the missile was equipped with a heavy nuclear warhead.
Still, even a small nuclear warhead can cause incredible carnage.
The atomic bomb detonated over Hiroshima, Japan, by the United States in 1945 killed 70,000 people with its initial explosion and left tens of thousands of people slowly dying from burns or radiation-related illnesses.
North Korea has successfully tested bombs the same size as the Hiroshima bomb and much larger.
North Korea's largest missile
Last October, North Korea displayed its largest missile yet - an updated version of the Hwasong-15 that thundered through the streets of Pyongyang on an 11-axis mobile launch pad during a military parade.
Speaking after the event, Harry Kazianis, senior director of Korean studies at the Washington-based Center for the National Interest, said the missile appeared to be a new liquid-fueled ICBM that "is much larger and clearly more powerful than anything else 'in North Korea's arsenal.
ICBM unveiled at a North Korean military parade in October 2020.
The CFR report notes, however, that as the massive missile displayed at the parade had not yet been tested, its actual capabilities remain unknown.
"Analysts said it could carry multiple nuclear warheads or decoys to confuse missile defense systems," the report says.
North Korea has successfully tested nuclear warheads six times, in 2006, 2009, 2013, twice in 2016 and in 2017, according to the CFR report.
"With each test, North Korea's nuclear explosions have increased in potential," the CFR said.
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According to a study by seismologists at the University of California at Santa Cruz, the 2017 test was by far the largest, with an estimated yield of 250 kilotons of TNT.
By comparison, the Hiroshima bomb had a yield of 16 kilotons.
Experts are also cautious.
Despite successfully detonating the bombs, North Korea has yet to show that it can effectively mount them on a ballistic missile.
Ballistic missiles work only during the initial stages of their flight, reaching a zenith at some point, and then falling by gravity on their targets.
Longer-range ballistic missiles leave Earth's atmosphere after launch.
To achieve their objectives, the warheads of these missiles must survive the heat generated when they re-enter the atmosphere, just as a manned spacecraft must when returning from orbit.
But with the advances North Korea has made, especially under Kim's missile modernization program, Pyongyang is likely to improve the technology at some point, experts say.
"We will have to learn to live with North Korea's ability to target the United States with nuclear weapons," Jeffrey Lewis, a researcher at the Middlebury Institute for Strategic Studies, said in the CFR report.
This January 14, 2021, the image shows what appear to be submarine-launched ballistic missiles during a military parade in Pyongyang.
North Korea is building more and more missiles, both conventional and nuclear-capable.
A 2020 technical report from the South Korean Defense Ministry said Pyongyang has 13 missile brigades.
At the October military parade, nine missiles were unveiled, including the massive ICBM and a submarine-launched ballistic missile, according to the document.
“North Korea is expected to continue to improve its nuclear and missile capabilities in the name of strengthening its self-defense capabilities and mobilize all its manpower and resources with the goal of improving the lives of residents by 2022, when the 110th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birthday, "said the report, referring to the founder of North Korea.
A million strong army
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While much attention is paid to North Korea's nuclear ambitions, its conventional weapons should not be underestimated.
Pyongyang's military has developed new multiple rocket launchers that can strike anywhere in South Korea, the Seoul Defense Ministry said, potentially endangering the country's entire population of more than 50 million people.
Mobile rocket launchers are displayed at the October 2020 North Korean military parade in Pyongyang.
In addition, nearly 30,000 US soldiers are based in South Korea at US military installations around the country.
North Korean special operations units could threaten any of those bases, along with South Korean infrastructure and industry, with a combination of commandos, light aircraft, helicopters and ships, the South Korean report said.
An overwhelming number in terms of manpower also favors North Korea.
The South Korean Defense Ministry estimates Pyongyang's army at 1.28 million people compared to 550,000 in Seoul.
North Korea's ground forces may also call on 4,300 tanks, 2,600 armored vehicles and 8,800 artillery pieces, according to South Korean estimates.
North Korean artillery show in October 2020.
The North Korean navy has 430 combat ships and 70 submarines.
And its air force has 810 fighter jets.
When it comes to conventional weapons, North Korea's are older and less advanced than those available to South Korean and US forces on the Korean Peninsula.
But North Korean firepower could be quickly applied to Seoul because South Korea's capital is just 50 kilometers from the 38th parallel that divides the Korean peninsula.
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Experts say there are many reasons why North Korea is unlikely to attack South Korea, not least because it could trigger a humanitarian crisis and the possible end of the Kim dynasty.
However, regardless of whether Pyongyang ever makes good on its threats, the CFR says the potential for attack cannot be ignored.
"The military position deployed by the (Kim) regime and missiles aimed at Seoul ensure that Pyongyang's conventional capabilities remain a constant threat to its southern neighbor," the CFR report said.
nuclear arsenal
