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Solving Iran's dilemma

2021-03-26T04:20:02.777Z


To avoid the risk of a nuclear confrontation in the Middle East, the United States should promote an agreement that includes the control of the weapons of the Islamic Republic and the lifting of sanctions


Rachel Marin

Former US President Donald Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran has clearly failed to improve regional or global security.

His successor, Joe Biden, must not make the same mistake.

The centerpiece of Trump's policy toward Iran was his unilateral withdrawal by the United States from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JAPAN) - known as the Iranian nuclear deal - in 2018. This measure, promoted directly and aggressively by the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu allowed the United States to reimpose severe sanctions on Iran.

At the time, Iran was fully compliant with the conditions of the JCPOA, which it continued to do for a full year after Trump's decision went into effect, to give Europe a chance to honor its promise to circumvent US sanctions.

But Europe did not comply, so Iran began to break the rules.

  • Editorial |

    Negotiate with Iran

Now, as an outgoing Mossad deputy chief recently observed, the situation is worse than it was when the PAIC was signed.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken believes that Iran is only months away from being able to produce enough material to build a nuclear weapon.

If the country continues to exceed the limits imposed by the PAIC, it could reach that stage in "a matter of weeks."

Yet far from learning the lesson, Israel - along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - wants Biden to uphold Trump's failed policy.

In January, Israel's military chief, Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, warned the Biden Administration against rejoining the JAPAN, even if its terms were tightened.

He also announced that Israeli forces are redoubling preparations for possible offensive action against Iran this year.

For Iran's neighbors, a relaxation of tensions between the United States and Iran that ignores the Islamic Republic's ballistic missile program and its support for organizations across the Middle East is a terrifying scenario.

They fear that once tensions with Iran ease, the United States will likely stop paying attention to the Middle East.

The forthcoming Global Posture Review, which is being prepared today by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, is likely to reaffirm this perspective.

In this context, it would be unwise to put into practice French President Emmanuel Macron's suggestion that Saudi Arabia and other regional players get involved in any new negotiations on the JCPOA.

Of course, Saudi Arabia - which, together with the United Arab Emirates, has demanded the participation of the Gulf states - has welcomed Macron's request.

But, as Iran recognizes, this is a sure path to diplomatic failure and the perpetuation of the conflict.

If these countries do not act as spoilers, there is a chance for success.

To be sure, domestic politics will limit Iran's ability to accept changes to the original agreement.

Years of devastating sanctions - along with the assassination by the United States of General Qasem Soleimani, Iran's most powerful military commander, in January 2020 and Israel's covert operations within the country - have driven Iran's hawks to who did very well in last year's parliamentary election.

In fact, days after the attack on Soleimani, Iran launched missiles at US forces in Iraq, wounding more than 100 soldiers.

Similar missile strikes have been launched this month, after US attacks on Iranian-backed militias on the Syrian-Iraqi border.

This, coupled with persistent attacks on Saudi Arabia by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, suggests that Iran has no intention of allowing the confrontation over the JCPOA to hamper its regional power plays.

All great revolutions aspire to guarantee their legacy through expansion.

For Iran, the imperative is to protect the credibility of the Islamic Republic not only among its citizens, but also among the organizations it supports and that channel its influence in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.

This is why so many powerful voices in Iran will oppose returning even to the 2015 agreement: nuclear capabilities are the guarantee of the regime.

The United States does not wage war against nuclear powers.

However, Iran has not closed the door to the JCPOA.

On the contrary, it recently signaled its persistent willingness to agree, agreeing to keep recordings of monitoring equipment installed at nuclear sites by the International Atomic Energy Agency for three months.

If the United States revokes the sanctions within that time, the recordings will be released.

(Iran had previously decided that unless US sanctions were lifted on February 21, intrusive controls on its nuclear facilities would be banned.)

The Biden Administration should use this window of opportunity to secure a direct deal: The United States lifts sanctions in exchange for Iran complying with JAPAN restrictions on its nuclear activities.

This would significantly boost President Hasan Rohani's dovish stance vis-à-vis his hardline contender, Hosein Dehghan, in the June presidential election.

But this would not be enough to mitigate the risk of a conflagration on a regional scale.

To do this, the United States would have to negotiate a “two-phase” agreement that addresses Iran's ballistic missile program and the backing of non-state actors throughout the Middle East, in addition to the “suspension clause” of the JCPOA, which would lift restrictions on Iran's nuclear enrichment program after 2025.

Given its huge investments in the Middle East - and its energy dependence on this region - China could be a useful ally in this effort.

In fact, it has already proposed to establish a forum in which the countries of the Persian Gulf can address regional security issues, including compliance with the JCPOA.

There is reason to think that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - which, despite their large military budgets, cannot afford an all-out war with Iran - would be willing to reach some kind of regional agreement negotiated within the framework of a forum of this nature. .

As the two countries set their sights on nuclear power, a non-proliferation plan may also be a possibility.

Israel, however, would be excluded from this forum.

In any case, it is highly unlikely to enter into negotiations with Iran.

The responsibility for putting a brake on it, therefore, rests with the United States.

To that end, Biden should address Israel's security issues and expand the multilateral process to address Israel's core strategic interests in Syria and Lebanon.

None of this will be easy.

But a two-phase deal is the best bet for the United States, the region, and the world.

Shlomo Ben-Ami

was an Israeli Foreign Minister and Vice President of the Toledo International Center for Peace.

Author of

Scars of War, Wounds of Peace: The Israeli-Arab Tragedy.

© Project Syndicate, 2021.

Source: elparis

All news articles on 2021-03-26

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