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Written by: Ouyang Dehao Zhu Haiqi
2021-03-26 18:00
Last update date: 2021-03-26 18:00
The new crown pneumonia epidemic in Hong Kong has eased recently. The Hong Kong government reached an agreement with Singapore last year to establish an "air travel bubble". However, the fourth wave of the epidemic suddenly broke out in Hong Kong before sailing. The original plans of the two places had no choice but to stop.
However, looking at the information, the 7-day moving average of Hong Kong has been below the level of 5 since March 6. According to the agreement between the two places, the tourism bubble should be restarted.
The Commerce and Economic Development Bureau responded to "HK01" yesterday (25th) that the governments of the two places have been communicating on this, but the authorities have not responded to the timetable for the restart.
Travel agencies also do not have expectations for the tourism bubble, but instead focus on local tourism that is about to resume.
Yuan Zhenning, executive director of Freedom Travel, suggested that the government should regulate the price of air tickets, otherwise travel agencies and the public will become a group that suffers, "Yixian Airlines makes huge profits." He also estimated that the future of air tickets will rise sharply, flying to Japan or asking prices 5,000 yuan.
Respiratory specialist Liang Zichao said that Singapore requires strong tracking software in high-risk transmission sites, but Hong Kong has no relevant measures.
He suggested that relevant venues should require visitors to leave their names and contact information, and that visitors can still be contacted immediately in the event of an outbreak.
The 7-day moving average from March 6 to the present is below 5, which meets the conditions for restarting the tourism bubble
Hong Kong and Singapore collaborated to establish an "air travel bubble" last year, and residents of the two places can be exempted from the 14-day compulsory quarantine for travel.
In order to effectively control the epidemic, the two places have established a "fuse mechanism". If the 7-day moving average exceeds 5 cases of unknown origin per day, the arrangement will be suspended.
Until the last day of the two-week suspension, the 7-day moving average number of the two places fell to no more than 5, and it can be resumed the next day.
At that time, the two places planned to officially make their maiden voyage on November 22 last year. However, the fourth wave of the epidemic broke out in Hong Kong at that time. It was planned to stop before the voyage, and it was postponed until today and it has not resumed.
However, looking at the data, the 7-day moving average of Hong Kong has been below the level of 5 since March 6 and dropped to 1.43 yesterday, which has exceeded the two-period limit established by the "fuse mechanism". The two regions should be able to restart "aviation". "Travel Bubble", but to date (26th) there is still no relevant news.
▼Details of Singapore Tourism Bubbles in 2020▼
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Bureau of Commerce and Economics: The governments of the two places have been in communication
In response to "HK01" yesterday, the Bureau of Commerce and Economic Affairs stated that it has been striving for the establishment of tourism bubbles in areas that are relatively stable with the epidemic and have close economic and trade relations, and balance the strategy of preventing imports from abroad to protect public health needs.
Although the "air travel bubble" agreed with Singapore in November last year was delayed due to the epidemic, the governments of the two places have been in communication on this.
However, the authorities did not respond to the timetable for the restart.
Travel agency calls for regulation of air ticket prices: Yishai Airlines makes huge profits
The "air travel bubble" has twists and turns. Yuan Zhenning, the executive director of Freedom Travel, said frankly that the content of the agreement between the government and Singapore at that time was that the daily flights and the number of passengers were limited, and the passengers had to be tested three times in the process of arriving in the local area, which was prohibitive.
He believes that the government will add new provisions to the original plan, such as travelers must have been vaccinated.
He pointed out that there was a sky-high ticket price last year. It is recommended that the government regulate the price of air tickets, which is equivalent to the government's regulation of bus and MTR tickets. Otherwise, travel agencies and the public will become a group that suffers, and "airlines make huge profits."
However, compared to the tourism bubble, travel agencies are currently focusing more on local travel.
Yuan estimates that the Tourism Board will launch "Travel in Hong Kong" after Easter, and local tourism will resume again.
He hopes to open to the Greater Bay Area in the next step. He also emphasizes that the tourism bubble is welcome to resume at any time. Travel agencies have also been in contact with airlines and local staff.
Yuan Zhenning predicts that the price of air tickets will increase significantly, flying to Japan or asking for a price of 5,000 yuan, and it is estimated that free travel will be restored as soon as 2023.
(Photo/Photo by Luo Guohui)
Japan air ticket may rise to 5,000 yuan
Speaking of the tourism industry in the future, Yuan Zhenning hopes that the World Health Organization will formulate a list of approved vaccines. Travelers can travel abroad as long as they are vaccinated with one of them. Otherwise, under the current situation, "maybe you have to get four to five vaccines, and you can travel around the world first. "So he is pessimistic about the prospects, and he estimates that he can return to free travel only in 2023 at the earliest.
Yuan Geng believes that even if the local governments agree on vaccine passports, it does not mean that the problem has been resolved. He pointed out that it will take time for the air capacity to recover. It is expected that airlines will lose money in recent years, while the seats will be halved to maintain social distance. As a result, the price of air tickets will be greatly increased. To Japan or ask for 5,000 yuan.
Even local residents will worry that tourists will bring the epidemic, "You are shocking and shocking. Don't rule out that there will be restaurants that will not welcome foreigners."
▼Kexing, BioNTech/Fosun, AstraZeneca vaccine protection rate and side effects▼
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Liang Zichao worries about the lack of tracking software in Hong Kong: it's easy to leak if you don't keep it seriously
However, experts worry that the restart of the "air travel bubble" will once again create loopholes in Hong Kong's epidemic prevention.
Respiratory system specialist Liang Zichao believes that the Singaporean epidemic is more stable than Hong Kong and has not been ravaged by the mutant virus. The most important thing is whether the other party is willing to establish a "tourism bubble" with Hong Kong.
He also mentioned that Singapore requires high-risk transmission sites to have strong tracking software, but there are still no relevant tracking measures in places such as bars and fitness rooms in Hong Kong.
Liang Zichao suggested that the relevant venues should ask the attendees to leave their names and contact information. Once an outbreak occurs, visitors can still be contacted immediately. "If it is purely for the cooperation of tourists, he would want to go back to his place early and miss you. Isolation, relying on cooperation, it’s difficult to catch the fire. It’s like the deep throat saliva samples were kept at the airport, but if you don’t keep it seriously, it’s easy to leak."
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