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Joe Biden punishes Recep Tayyip Erdogan with silence - "Low point in American-Turkish relations"

2021-03-27T09:16:35.128Z


Relations between the US and Turkey were already strained under Trump, but Biden's pressure on Ankara raises questions about the relationship with a long-standing NATO ally.


Relations between the US and Turkey were already strained under Trump, but Biden's pressure on Ankara raises questions about the relationship with a long-standing NATO ally.

  • Recep Tayyip Erdogan and US President Joe Biden have known each other for years - but the Turkish President's phone remained silent after Biden took office.

  • The relationship between the USA and Turkey is considered tense.

    The tone of voice has worsened under Joe Biden.

  • Erdogan himself is currently politically vulnerable - Turkey needs good relations with the USA and the EU.

  • This article is available for the first time in German - it was first published on March 3, 2021 by the magazine "Foreign Policy".

Washington / Ankara: Joe Biden spent the first month of his presidency making routine calls to world leaders.

The Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan never received a call.

The silent telephone line became a big report in Ankara, despite - or perhaps because of - years of perceived insults between the NATO allies, from conflicts over Syria to Turkey's purchase of a Russian air defense system.

But interviews with more than a dozen officials, lawmakers and other experts make it clear that the US President's radio silence is a sign that the American tone has intensified towards Turkey: Ankara will continue to be given the cold shoulder if that turns out to be Country does not behave better - and fast. 

“There are major challenges in this relationship and we are not in a position where we can rely on Turkey as much as we can rely on other NATO allies in the past, or as we can trust other NATO allies for that, ”said MP Abigail Spanberger, a Virginia Democrat who sits on the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee.

Still, most agree that there are few good solutions to keep relations from deteriorating further - even if Biden's foreign minister and some of his top advisors are in contact with their Turkish counterparts - and limited political ones There are options for Biden that go beyond continuing pressure on Erdogan on human rights issues.

Biden's relationship with Turkey: US President did not call Turkish President Erdogan after taking office

"This is the low point in US-Turkish relations," said Aykan Erdemir, who was a former member of the Turkish parliament and now works for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank.

Biden and Erdogan are not unfamiliar.

As US Vice President, Biden guided relations through what was then a low point after an attempted coup against Erdogan in 2016, which the Turkish president has long blamed the United States for in one way or another.

But as Biden now navigates the diplomatic minefield of US-Turkey relations as "Commander in Chief", his overarching foreign policy agenda will be put to an important test, and will show whether he is both reestablishing ties with a longtime NATO ally and, increasingly, Erdogan's can moderate authoritarian tendencies. 

Turkey's aggressive foreign policy approach could represent another possible crisis for the Biden government in the future.

After the Turkish purchase of the $ 2.5 billion S-400 air defense system, Erdogan is in the clutches of Russian President Vladimir Putin and is at odds with US foreign policy in the Mediterranean, the Middle East and North Africa.

Turkey remains subject to US sanctions against buyers of Russian armaments, despite former US officials and experts saying the sanctions are not designed to harm the Turkish economy. 

"This is the second round for most people in the Biden administration," said Aaron Stein, research director for the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia.

“I just get the impression that people are fed up with it.

It is clear to everyone that this is not going well, but now it is Ankara's turn. "

When asked to comment on the matter, the Turkish Embassy in Washington said that Ankara attaches "paramount importance" to relations with the United States and will work to strengthen relations with the Biden administration.

Joe Biden and Recep Tayyip Erdogan have known each other for years - "any engagement must be on US terms"

“Turkey has been a member of NATO for almost 70 years.

The acquisition of the S-400 does not in any way represent a strategic change of course for Turkey. Turkey continues to be a responsible and reliable member of NATO, ”said the Turkish embassy.

"For more than two years, Turkey has been proposing to set up a working group involving NATO to address concerns about the S-400 systems."

So far, the Biden government seems to be looking for a balanced approach - but it does not seem willing to let Turkey's problematic behavior go unchecked. 

And if he decides to make a mess of Trump, there is no way Biden will look the other way after what happened in the US.

Soner Cagaptay, Director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy

“Of course you are not trying to completely ruin the relationship.

You are not hostile.

But neither are they submissive, ”said Nicholas Danforth, Senior Non-Resident Fellow at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy.

"They make it very clear that any engagement must be on US terms." Turkey has made a peace offer in which Defense Minister Hulusi Akar brought up a model in which Turkey could store the S-400 systems off the coast - the first recognizable sign of goodwill on the part of Ankara.

To some extent, this reflects Erdogan's growing political vulnerability, only compounded by US sanctions.

The Turkish economy, which weathered the COVID-19 downturn last year thanks to generous government lending, is subsequently suffering from high inflation, a plummeting currency and stagnating employment growth.

Erdogan's Justice and Recovery Party, which faces re-election in 2023, was defeated two years ago in the local elections in Istanbul, which highlights its political weakness in some parts of the country - provided it allows free and fair elections. 

Erdogan's political vulnerability: Turkey suffers from high inflation and a plummeting currency

"If there were elections now, he wouldn't win," says Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish research program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

"And if he decides to play Trump, Biden will definitely not look the other way after what happened in the US," he explains, referring to the baseless allegations of former US President Donald Trump of election fraud in the election campaign 2020. The trick for the Biden government is to keep putting pressure on Turkey while maintaining a decades-old military alliance.

Some former US officials are dissatisfied with the beginnings of the Biden strategy, as they still view Turkey as a major protective wall on NATO's southern flank and do not see Erdogan's political mess with Russia as a permanent trend. 

The United States and Turkey have close defense ties: the US Department of Defense is housing nuclear weapons at Incirlik Air Force Base, just under 60 kilometers from the Mediterranean Sea, and a NATO early warning radar system is being set up in Turkey to fend off ballistic missile attacks further east.

Turkey remains a major player in the Black Sea region, where tensions have risen between the West and Russia since Moscow illegally annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014.

A former senior US official, who

 spoke

to

Foreign Policy on

condition of anonymity 

, called Turkey a "natural enemy" of Russia and a potential barrier against Iranian expansionism in the Middle East. 

The Biden government insists that it can both hold Turkey accountable for the setbacks in democratic values ​​and maintain a close relationship as a NATO ally.

"We have common interests in fighting terrorism, ending the conflict in Syria and avoiding harmful influence in the region," said a US State Department spokesman.

"We can uphold our values, including human rights and the rule of law, and protect our interests, while ensuring that Turkey aligns with the transatlantic alliance on critical issues."

The Turkish embassy insists that the country uphold democratic values.

“The constitution guarantees fundamental rights and freedoms.

Turkey continues to carry out democratic reforms ", so the Turkish message." In this sense, a comprehensive action plan for human rights was announced yesterday, which underlines once again Turkey's will in this regard. "

US and Turkey have close defense ties - Under Trump, the relationship between the foreign ministries fell by the wayside

But the institutional relationships that used to help the two countries weather difficulties are falling apart.

“Institutions have traditionally played a major role in Turkish-American relations,” said Gönül Tol, director of Turkish studies at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

Tol notes that Turkey and the US foreign ministries have worked closely in the past even when their lines clashed.

That tradition fell by the wayside under Trump, when the State Department was sometimes marginalized by a president who distrusted career diplomats and passed over his advisors to forge a personal relationship with Erdogan. 

The frustrations began to boil over towards the end of the Trump administration, when the then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo slowly lost patience with Ankara, according to former officials under Trump, despite the personal relationship between Trump and Erdogan.

The former senior official said working with Pompeo's counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu was seen as difficult, which hampered relations - as did pressure from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to take the view of former officials that Turkey was due Erdogan's ties to the Muslim Brotherhood are an intimidating force in the region.

According to various officials familiar with the case, in late October 2020 the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was preparing a routine statement to be released on Republic Day Turkey, a major national holiday, but Pompeo's office prevented the statement ever published (State Department declined to comment.)

US military support for Kurdish groups further clouded relations

The same applies to the military, according to other experts and former officials, especially after Erdogan's government accused many in Turkey's military apparatus, which had close ties with the US and NATO partners, of having been involved in the attempted coup.

More than two dozen Turkish officers, including those stationed with a NATO command in Virginia, have sought asylum in the United States in recent years after facing such denial allegations.

US military support for Kurdish groups fighting the Islamic State in Syria further clouded institutional relations. 

In the past, "the US military always supported Turkey and was one of Turkey's greatest defenders when Congress or the White House turned against Turkey," says Merve Tahiroglu, Turkey expert at the Project on Middle East Democracy.

"This is no longer the case." Washington's tougher stance on Ankara, exemplified by Trump's approval of sanctions on the S-400 purchase after more than a year of deliberations, may have tightened with the new administration.

When asked who might hold pro-Turkish views in the new government, the former high-ranking officials could not name a single new employee whom they consider benevolent of Ankara. 

We are magnanimous as long as friends act like friends.

Otherwise we will do what we have done so far.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

However, this mistrust exists on both sides.

Erdogan has repeatedly railed against the West for supporting armed Kurdish groups in Syria.

Public opinion in Turkey increasingly rejects both NATO and the United States as allies, fueled in part by Erdogan's unsubstantiated claims that the United States played a role in instigating the failed coup attempt against him. 

Turkish President Erdogan: "We are magnanimous as long as friends act like friends"

Some Turkish experts point to other missteps by the US that heightened tensions from a Turkish perspective: the disputes over NATO's withdrawal of some Patriot missile defense systems when tensions between Turkey and Russia escalated in 2015;

US policy in the Syrian civil war and continued US support for Kurdish groups fighting the Islamic State - groups that Turkey has labeled terrorist organizations. 

“What kind of NATO alliance is it?

They are not interested in helping refugees.

They care about something else.

You are still acting in concert with terrorists.

We, on the other hand, are still fighting terrorism and terrorists everywhere and we will continue to do so, ”Erdogan said in a speech last month.

“We are magnanimous as long as friends act like friends.

Otherwise we will do what we have done so far. "

However, despite the bad blood, most experts say the relationship won't completely fall apart.

For the West, this is still a geopolitical question - as it was when Turkey joined NATO: Turkey is simply too geographically important and decisive for the position of the US armed forces in the Middle East.

Even American and European officials, angry about the Turkish escapades in NATO, never go so far as to seriously question whether Turkey belongs in the alliance.

For Ankara it is again about security and economy.

The Turkish economy needs ties with western markets and investments, and despite renewed tensions, Erdogan is unwilling to give up the deep ties between Turkey and the West for autocratic rivals in Moscow or Beijing. 

Turkey needs good relations with the EU and the United States

Some experts believe that Erdogan's pragmatism will ultimately outweigh his anti-Western platform.

"Erdogan has always been a pragmatist and he doesn't really have many options other than to maintain a working relationship with the United States," said Tahiroglu.

“Turkey is not energy independent, its economy is not booming, it is becoming militarily more independent, but its entire successful domestic military-industrial complex is still very much dependent on US licenses.

Turkey needs good relations with the EU and the United States

In between anti-Western tirades, Erdogan has made some friendlier diplomatic overtures to Washington.

"We on the Turkish side believe that our common interests with the United States far outweigh our disagreements," he said in a televised address on February 20.

"Turkey will continue to do its part in ways worthy of the allied and strategic partnership between the two countries," he said, but also noted that relations with Washington "are being seriously tested had been placed ".

On March 2, Erdogan also presented a package of reforms aimed at eliminating criticism of the country's democratic regression.

But even those in Washington who are most sorry for Erdogan do not take the relationship for granted and say that there must be opportunities for the two countries to work together so that Ankara does not finally turn to Moscow or Beijing.

"We have to set clear boundaries, but we also have to ensure that there is a way for Turkey to return to better relations with us and the rest of our NATO allies," said Spanberger.

“We definitely don't want the Turks to turn any further to Russia.

We don't want this relationship to get any stronger. "

by Robbie Gramer, Katie Lvingstone, Jack Detsch

Robbie Gramer

is a diplomacy and national security reporter for

Foreign Policy.

Twitter: @RobbieGramer

Katie Livingstone

is an intern at

Foreign Policy.

Twitter: @sassovivente

Jack Detsch

is the reporter for the Pentagon and National Security

for Foreign Policy.

Twitter: @JackDetsch

This article was first published in English on March 3, 2021 in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com” - as part of a cooperation, a translation is now also

 available to

Merkur.de

readers 

.

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