Valérie Pécresse is not yet officially a candidate in Île-de-France, but she is already given a favorite.
With less than three months of the regional elections scheduled for June 13 and 20, the president (formerly Les Républicains) of the region is at the top of the voting intentions in the first and second rounds, according to a BVA poll for Orange and RTL, in a campaign against a backdrop of Covid-19 where the specter of abstention resurfaces.
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The potential presidential candidate, whose regional record is hailed by a majority of Ile-de-France residents (59%), would obtain 31% of the votes in the first round - a level similar to her score in the 2015 election, at the end of which she had delighted the region to the left.
Behind her, the lists led by MEP Jordan Bardella (National Gathering, RN) and by MP Laurent Saint-Martin (La République en Marche, LREM) would be on an equal footing, at 16%.
Left elbow-to-elbow
The divided lefts are neck and neck, between journalist Audrey Pulvar (Socialist Party, 12%) - the survey was carried out before it sparked a controversy over “racial single-sex” meetings -, the number one in Europe Ecology-The Greens, Julien Bayou (11%), and the Insoumise Clémentine Autain (9%).
The deputy would not cross the threshold of 10% to be reached to qualify for the second round, just like the Debout la France (3.5%) and extreme left (2.5%) lists.
Their first five competitors could for their part continue their campaign in this flagship region of 12 million inhabitants.
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In the second round, in the event of a merger between the Socialists, the ecologists and the rebels, reducing the number of candidates to four, Valérie Pécresse would be well placed to be re-elected.
The president of the Free party!
is credited with 37% of the voting intentions, ahead of the left "bloc" (28%), the RN (19%) and LREM (16%), in a campaign where security is prioritized by nearly a Paris region in two (49%), ahead of health and public hospitals (39%).
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The scenario of a weak mobilization is plausible, a year after municipal elections marked by a record abstention.
Only 30% of Ile-de-France residents called to vote are certain to go to the polls, one in three (32%) explaining that the health situation could dissuade them.
What to make weigh a major uncertainty on the results of the poll.
Methodology: Study carried out by BVA for Orange and RTL, with a sample of 1231 people, representative of the population of Île-de-France, interviewed online from March 18 to 25, 2021, according to the quota method. Voting intentions based on people certain to vote and having expressed an intention to vote, i.e. 499 individuals in the first round and 387 in the second round. Margins of error for a percentage of 20%: 3.6 to 4.6 points more or less.
