Coup in Burma: American and European, diplomacy speaks in a vacuum

On a huge esplanade of the capital Naypyidaw thousands of soldiers, tanks, missiles and helicopters follow one another.

On the occasion of "Armed Forces Day", this Saturday March 27, Burma is celebrating its own July 14 ... as if nothing had happened.

On the same day, however, the repression claimed 107 new victims, a record.

A total of 423 people have been killed since the coup on February 1.

For the military junta, however, this day is a strong moment: in the stands were seated foreign delegations, including those from China and Russia.

"It is absolutely scandalous", deplored Joe Biden, the President of the United States, on Sunday, denouncing the repression.

And on Monday, his administration will announce that it is suspending a trade agreement with Burma.

For his part, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, will deplore a "day of horror and shame", "an unacceptable escalation of violence" and "a senseless path" chosen by the military regime.

"It is absolutely unacceptable to see violence against people of such a level, so many people killed," UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres commented on Monday.

The United States as the European Union had nevertheless decided, in a coordinated manner, in February, to take sanctions against the Burmese generals ... without any effect.

"These sanctions have no chance of leading to a change, they are completely painless for the Burmese regime", explains to the Parisian Olivier Guillard, director of information at Crisis24 and researcher at Cerias, specialist in Burma.

“American and European behavior is relatively useless, if not counterproductive,” even denounces Sophie Boisseau du Rocher, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations.

"They have no impact because the generals are prohibited from going to the United States and the European Union but they did not intend to go there, and their assets are frozen except that they have little or nothing there", confirms David Camroux, researcher at the International Research Center.

A chessboard with several players

Neither the United States nor the European Union have, for the time being, planned general sanctions against the country.

However, they could have the means and support where it hurts: money.

Two large gas companies - the French Total and the American Chevron - have been established in Burma for decades.

Should we then brandish the threat that they cease their activities?

“In the next minute, answers an observer, the military regime would receive offers from China to take over the operations, and we can be sure that these companies would behave less well than the Western companies in place.

"

Around this crisis in Burma, the great world powers are evolving on a large political and diplomatic chessboard ... totally upset.

The game is already tense on other fronts: the United States, since the election of Joe Biden, has raised its tone against Russia while China is the target of the Americans and Europeans because of the situation of the Uighurs in Xinjiang.

"It is a shame that all this is happening in the midst of European sanctions against China," concedes David Camroux.

“The solution cannot come from countries with which Burma does not have economic relations,” explains Olivier Guillard.

China, Burma's first economic partner, does not speak of a coup d'état and simply refers to a "major cabinet reshuffle".

"China has considerable interests in Burma (

Editor's note: a pipeline brings together the two countries in particular

) and the country is integrated into the project of new silk roads," he continues.

“China needs a stable Burma, however qualifies David Camroux.

But it is hard to see her asking for the return of a democratic government when you look at what she is doing ...

Neighboring countries ... no more democratic

The Burmese protesters can no longer count on ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, of which Burma is a part, to hope for a solution ... "It may be the only organization. which could be important in the eyes of the Burmese regime, but it is divided, ”explains David Camroux.

Four of the ten countries in ASEAN have officially requested the release of Aung San Suu Kyi.

The others are, like China, consistent with their own policy: "Countries in which we operate as a single party cannot decently ask for the return of democratic life ..." Worse, according to David Camroux, " happening in Burma is a smokescreen and helps cover up what is happening in these countries ”.

"There is an implicit encouragement from China, Xi Jinping (

Editor's note: the Chinese president

) had clearly said that democracy had no future for him," recalls Sophie Boisseau du Rocher.

And the researcher evokes "a South Asian peninsula where the situation has become worrying", with autocratic regimes that reign in Cambodia, Thailand and Laos.

"There is a risk of contagion to neighboring countries, in Indonesia in particular", adds the researcher.

A stakeholder Russia

On the Burmese chessboard has been added Russia, which nevertheless has very few economic ties.

Since Western sanctions ban the export of arms, Moscow has become an economic partner of choice for the junta.

"Russia is a great supplier of arms," ​​recalls Sophie Boisseau du Rocher.

But that's not all: “Russia serves as an additional guarantee and allows the generals to be confident to cope.

The Russian intervention is in line with Putin's policy aimed at influencing the world and confronting the United States / European Union bloc.

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"We have long-standing and fairly constructive relations with Burma (...) which does not mean that we approve of the tragic events underway in the country", however defended, on Monday, the spokesperson for the presidency. Russian, Dmitry Peskov.

On Friday, in a statement from the Russian army, the Russian Minister of Defense also considered that Burma was "a reliable ally and a strategic partner" in Southeast Asia and said he wanted to "deepen" military cooperation between them. two countries.

For the Burmese population, therefore, it is still impossible to see the end of the tunnel.

"The soldiers are now engaged in a fight to the death," explains Olivier Guillard.

They know that they have crossed a point of no return and that, if they let go, they will be massacred by the population anyway.

A new UN Security Council is due to be held on Wednesday.

What will he be able to get out of it?

Under pressure from Russia and China, on March 10, the Council had to give up using the term "coup".

"We are facing a rivalry of systems," observes Sophie Boisseau du Rocher.

Diplomacy just sank a little deeper into the impasse ...