Gustavo Petro, during a presidential debate in 2018.Gabriel Aponte / GETTY IMAGES
The first presidential poll came out 14 months after the elections.
Few surprises, very few, but the conclusions or the analyzes that are derived from these numbers are quite telling of the electoral map that Colombia currently presents.
There are six great conclusions:
1. Gustavo Petro, the leftist candidate, leads by far, with 23 points.
For the first time in the history of Colombia, a leftist candidate leads and for the first time the traditional establishment that has governed in the last century is afraid of losing power.
However, it is still a long way from 50%.
2. Serio Fajardo, the candidate who brings together part of the center-left, and even a small piece of the center-right, has 12 points, he is the second, he is very far from Petro.
But in the second round scenarios he is the only one who would beat Gustavo Petro.
This makes him a very attractive candidate for sectors of the center-right.
3. The candidates of the center collation, the so-called Coalition of Hope, collectively add 22 points, almost equal to Petro.
Although these types of sums are complex to do in politics, the truth is that the center has a wide space for growth.
Adding up the percentages of Fajardo, Juan Manuel Galán and Humberto de La Calle, among others, are close to Petro's numbers.
A query between all of them could overcome the query on the left.
4. Candidates from traditional and regional political clans score 10 points.
These clans, for the first time in the 20 years of life of Uribismo, would be separated from the candidate named by Álvaro Uribe.
This, among other things, would mean that the right would arrive divided in the first presidential round.
These clans always voted for the one Uribe said, but in the face of the current crisis in the ruling party, they began to jump from the sinking ship.
5. The two candidates from the Conservative Party add up to almost 11 points, this also means that they could put together a tent apart from the Democratic Center.
In addition, for more than 20 years this party has not had a presidential candidate and they have always been attached to uribism.
After 20 years, they claim to be the head and not the tail of the coalition.
It is even probable that the Conservative Party will go to the first round without participating in a consultation or that its main exponent, Vice President Marta Lucía Ramírez, will collect signatures and launch out of the party.
6. The Democratic Center has three points.
Two of them are added by the son of former President Uribe, Tomás Uribe.
Although a few years ago this percentage in an Uribista candidate did not mean much, because with the impulse of the ex-president he easily became a candidate of more than 30 points in a matter of months, this time it is different.
Álvaro Uribe has the worst image among many former presidents of Colombia, his multiple judicial processes and the crisis of the government of President Iván Duque suggest that Uribe's impulse will no longer be very important.
The crisis is evident and deep.
The survey confirms two basic things.
On the one hand, Colombia is in the era of posuribismo, the political game is changing and Uribismo should be second in the best of cases.
Posturibism means that all political forces are rearranged and this will mainly transform the spectrum of the right.
The second is the broad growth of the left and the center, their lists will be among the most voted in the Congress of the Republic, however, although it is easy to fall into triumphalism, the left is still very far from the 50% necessary to win the presidency.
Everything is open on the Colombian political board.