Mali: five minutes to understand the suspicions of blunder hanging over the French army

Word versus report.

While France has claimed for months to have neutralized a group of jihadists in central Mali in early January, the thesis of the blunder is becoming clearer.

The conclusions of a UN investigation unveiled on Tuesday support the version defended by local witnesses: the Barkhane force would in fact have struck a wedding party, and killed 19 civilians.

What happened on January 3?

The military maintains an official version since the strike.

According to La Grande Muette, after several days of surveillance, on January 3, a drone detects a motorcycle with two individuals, who joined some forty men, "formally" identified as an "armed terrorist group".

After more than an hour of observation to avoid the presence of women and children, the order is given to a patrol of fighter planes to attack.

Three bombs "neutralize" about thirty jihadists, the available elements "make it possible to exclude the possibility of collateral damage", then underlines the staff.

But local witnesses quickly undermine this story.

According to the first testimonies collected on the spot by journalists and associations, the strike actually affected a wedding party and killed a majority of civilians.

What does the UN say?

Between January 4 and February 20, investigators from the UN Mission in Mali (Minusma), "deployed a special fact-finding mission" to try to decide between these two versions.

And, according to the conclusions of this report, the Minusma is "able to confirm the holding of a wedding celebration which gathered at the scene of the strike a hundred civilians among whom were five armed people, presumed members of the Katiba Serma (Editor's note: affiliated with the Support Group for Islam and Muslims - GSIM, or JNIM in Arabic - a jihadist alliance itself linked to Al-Qaeda) ”.

Of the 22 people killed, three were suspected members of the Katiba Serma and 19 civilians therefore died.

If, as the French army says, it was a jihadist group, "it appears difficult to exclude the presence of civilians in the group of men in such a short time", notes the Minusma on this subject. .

What does the French government respond to?

The French ministry has expressed "many reservations as to the methodology" of the Minusma.

He considers "impossible to distinguish credible sources from false testimonies of possible terrorist sympathizers or individuals under the influence (including the threat) of jihadist groups".

If this risk exists, for Caroline Roussy, head of the Africa division at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations, France's position is difficult to maintain.

"The methodology which is described in the report is more than credible", estimates the researcher.

The experts were able to speak directly with 115 people, by telephone to a hundred others, not counting the group meetings.

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“We are going to have a problem because, in front of this report, we have a speech from France which challenges credibility against a background of information warfare, just with words, without proof.

The balance is tilted in favor of the UN, ”she insists.

The images of the strike, viewed by the Minister of the Armed Forces, Florence Parly, according to Le Monde, have not been made public and the executive categorically brushes aside the accusations of smearing.

In what framework was France intervening?

The strike of January 3 was the first of an operation called "Eclipse", launched at the end of 2020 and carried out jointly with the Malian army.

It targeted the Douentza-Hombori sector in central Mali, one of the hotbeds of the polymorphous violence that is plaguing the Sahel.

“It is an area of ​​extreme security volatility.

Five French people have recently died, and the peacekeepers have also suffered losses, ”confirms Caroline Roussy.

Since 2013, France has deployed the “Barkhane” military force in the Sahel to fight against jihadist groups.

Have there been any precedents?

France, which engages around 5,100 men in Barkhane, has already been the subject of suspicion of a mistake, but never yet to such a detailed report from the UN, notes AFP.

“In the Sahel there have been many communiques from Operation Barkhane claiming that they had neutralized jihadists, and these statements have always surprised.

On what basis was the fact that they were jihadists based?

These questions will now arise and the suspicion is there (…) This will create mistrust, hence the very firm reaction of France ”, according to the specialist.

What follow-ups are possible?

The report makes several recommendations, such as launching an "independent and transparent investigation to examine the circumstances of the strike and its impact on the civilian population of Bounty" and another on "possible violations of international law. humanitarian (...) ”.

For its part, the French military force in the Sahel, already at the heart of criticism, risks once again being singled out.

"The pressure will increase further," concedes Caroline Roussy.