The Limited Times

Now you can see non-English news...

Corona: will herd immunity never be achieved? Researchers provide reasons for this assumption

2021-04-02T11:11:59.658Z


Vaccinations and the resulting herd immunity are considered to be the key to overcoming the corona pandemic. But researchers consider them unrealistic.


Vaccinations and the resulting herd immunity are considered to be the key to overcoming the corona pandemic.

But researchers consider them unrealistic.

Munich - How can you master the situation?

Scientists all over the world asked themselves this question when the corona pandemic broke out a good year ago.

The approach back then: when 60 percent of people in a country have been vaccinated against the Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus or have survived the disease, herd immunity has been achieved and the virus cannot be transmitted any further.

Today, experts estimate the herd immunity threshold at around 80 percent.

The hope that it will be achieved and that people will be able to lead normal lives again grows with each passing day.

The reason for this is the global vaccination campaign, which in some countries - such as Germany - is rather slow, in others - such as Israel - is progressing quickly.

Corona: Scientists doubt the postulate of herd immunity

But we may never achieve herd immunity.

Some scientists are already saying goodbye to the idea.

The independent data scientist Youyang Gu, known for his Covid-19 forecasting model,

recently

renamed it, according to

Nature

, from "The path to herd immunity" to "The path to normality".

The epidemiologist Lauren Ancel Meyers of the University of Texas at Austin is quoted in the journal as saying: "We are just saying goodbye to the idea that we will reach the threshold of herd immunity and that the pandemic will then go away for good." Five reasons are given in

Nature

stated why herd immunity can be questioned.

Researcher: Even the flagship vaccine country Israel has problems achieving herd immunity

First, corona vaccines are unevenly distributed.

For example, while Israel leads the way when it comes to vaccination, not even one percent of the population is vaccinated in the surrounding countries of Egypt, Lebanon or Syria.

This discrepancy means that there is constant potential for new outbreaks in Israel too, says Shweta Bansal, a mathematics specialist in biology at Georgetown University in Washington DC.

To make matters worse, according to data analyst Dvir Aran from the technological institute in Haifa, the fact that young people refused to be vaccinated.

So more adults would have to be vaccinated.

Second, immunity necessary for herd immunity might not last long enough.

In the second year of the pandemic, one cannot say how long one will be immune after surviving an infection.

Likewise, it is not yet known how long the protection provided by the vaccination will last.

Coronavirus: Variants can compromise herd immunity

Third, new virus variants could endanger herd immunity.

The scientists cited the example in Manaus.

In the Brazilian city, 60 percent of people were infected before variant P1 spread.

Fourth, the ongoing vaccination campaign would make people believe they were in a false sense of security and increasingly disregard the AHA rules.

Fifthly and finally, it is not yet known whether vaccinations will prevent the spread of the coronavirus at all.

(mt)

List of rubric lists: © Frank Rumpenhorst / dpa

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2021-04-02

You may like

Trends 24h

News/Politics 2024-03-28T06:04:53.137Z

Latest

© Communities 2019 - Privacy

The information on this site is from external sources that are not under our control.
The inclusion of any links does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them.