A government train still looks like a sudoku for the advanced • A right-wing chairman passed the holiday in the south, and his thoughts wander to a surprising coalition in which he joins the ultra-Orthodox and Smutrich into the bloc of change • Netanyahu's call for lost sons to return to the right was seen as no more political
In order to start the process, a waiver will first be required on the part of Lapid.
Bennett
Photo:
Joshua Joseph
The one most likely to form a coalition to replace Netanyahu is currently not Yair Lapid, but Naftali Bennett. In recent days, senior Likud figures have worked hard to prevent this scenario from materializing as much as possible. The one who is helping them from the side is Avigdor Lieberman, who is unwilling to hear about it and has vetoed the matter in Lapid's ears. Lieberman, by the way, denies. But the facts, what to do, prove the opposite.
Contrary to briefings as if Lapid was willing for Bennett to form the government first, Bennett himself or any of his men had not yet heard of it. It seems that Torch is already deep in the vortex that is supposed to bring him, for the first time, to be the one who receives the mandate to form a government, that he can no longer stop and think of a different scenario. After all, he had already given up the surrender of his life to Bnei Gantz - and not once, but three times. The gap between him and Bennett is a double-digit number of seats. His difficulty in giving up again this time is more than understandable.
Bennett is currently waiting, keeping the cards close to his chest.
Until after the holiday he is not expected to say anything significant.
Most of the time he is on a family trip in the Judean Desert.
Here and there he stops for crowded phone calls and WhatsApp messages, sometimes on the Lapid line, sometimes it's one of Netanyahu's men, but he did not tell any of them what he meant.
If you had to rank the preferences of the chairman of the right, it seems that he would have preferred to receive the mandate to try to form a coalition, and if not - do not go into other adventures, and join forces with Netanyahu. The problem is that Netanyahu comes to adventure. Even with him not yet 61. The
way of Bennett to form a government through butts is. But in this sense it is no different from Netanyahu's or Lapid's. Each of them will have to sweat 28 days, night and day, so that he does not have to return to the president intact, and announce in shame that he failed to form a coalition. The vacation and the quiet that prevails in the heart of the desert, Bennett thought a lot about the various options that will be available to him, if and when the task of finally forming the government train is
imposed on him.Early next week, when things become clear and party representatives begin the ceremonial parade to the President. In order for the mandate to fall in part, Lapid will have to give up, and call on all those who intended to recommend him to change their recommendation to Naftali Bennett. Gideon Saar already fully supports him. He even urged Lapid to get with a committee to withdraw his candidacy and pave the way for his former partner The brothers. "It is not certain that this will happen, but Bennett has already been formed.
The Coalition of Dreams
His will be built like this: right, new hope, there is a future, blue and white and the work without Abtissam Maraan.
So far the easy part.
To complete the puzzle, Bennett will prefer not to turn left, Meretz or one of the Arab lists, but rather the right - to the ultra-Orthodox and Bezalel Smutrich.
The task of disconnecting Torah Judaism, Shas and religious Zionism from Netanyahu will be a complicated, difficult and painful analysis. But with the existing alternatives, there are certain chances of success, and Bennett will turn every stone to exhaust them. The
task of transferring ultra-Orthodox factions to his side will be twice as difficult. From the Netanyahu, and then also convincing them to agree to sit with Lapid. The first part is probably more difficult. The ultra-Orthodox will leave Netanyahu only if they know for sure that he has no government, and only after they know with absolute certainty that Bennett does exist. Themselves while an election campaign with masses angrily pointing to the home front to the prime minister, may put them in paralysis and reject any proposal. This will not prevent Bennett from trying as hard as he can.
Moving the Prime Minister will prepare everything
after coordinating things with Lapid, Bennett will explain to them More than they received from Netanyahu.
That the media will turn its approach to them from the moment they give a hand to the removal of the prime minister, and no one will bother them anymore in matters of recruitment, conversion and their marking as spreaders of diseases, dodgers and leeches.
Netanyahu's removal is an instrument of everything.
Bennett will be able to point to Lieberman and tell them here, look at a good example.
As long as he cooperated with Netanyahu, he was portrayed as violent, extremist and racist.
From the moment he abandoned it, he became a bear that every studio is happy to embrace.
Even in the week in which the person closest to him was convicted in many corruption cases - Revav did not stick to it himself.
If he had been part of Netanyahu's coalition, one can only imagine how Lieberman would have been treated this week after the ruling in the case of Faina Kirschenbaum.
And Bennett will also be able to wave that Lieberman is not part of his government.
Swallow Lapid and I will vomit Lieberman for you, he will tell them.
The torch itself should not be a problem to sit with the ultra-Orthodox.
Even if he waives the draft law and promises them the outline of the Western Wall, his constituents will applaud him for ousting Netanyahu.
Even concessions in the field of the judiciary, which will be a condition of absolute certainty for Smutrich's joining, if he decides to make the move, Lapid will probably agree to allow it, for the great muffin of Netanyahu's move.
Smutrich will not be an easy story for Bennett.
He has already pledged to recommend Netanyahu and sit only under him in the coalition.
The personal relationship between Bennett and Smutrich is also not strong, to say the least.
There is no doubt that in Smutrich not only portfolios and positions will speak, but also guidelines and a coalition agreement with clear clauses that will justify the sharp transition, especially in the area of the justice system.
If that happens, Lapid and Gantz will have to choose between it and the continuation of Netanyahu's rule, and it is quite clear in which direction the fortunes will fall.
In exchange for replacing the prime minister, the two will also agree to sacrifice the High Court. By the way, the parties that make up Bennett's dream coalition will have enough seats (66) so that only Smutrich's part can be attached from the religious Zionist party, without Jewish power and .
If attempts to be stranded, and Bennett did not get the mandate, it is estimated that the second priority of his will to enter the Netanyahu government and try his best to bring along the Saar. so as far as whoever gets the mandate next week will be the torch, it seems that Bennett would rather stay on the sidelines more For a long time, he will not surrender to the head of the left-wing camp. While Saar locked himself in by pledging not to sit with Netanyahu, Bennett is free from all burdens. With Abtissam Maraan, Meretz and the joint list. For Bennett it is one step too far.
Saar is not available
. Designed to bring Saar, the lost son of the Likud, back home to the warm embrace of the camp
The nationalist he abandoned, but to prepare the ground for a completely different, storm-free government.
It is still not entirely clear how, whether through defectors or through the support of an outside PM, and Netanyahu may not yet have any plan, and all that is on his mind at this stage is just trying to torpedo the formation of a government from the other side.
Netanyahu's problem is that the speech was perceived in advance as such.
A statement that is full of cynicism that hides behind it a political conspiracy of mysterious plans to continue, whose chances of success are unknown.
Despite several attempts to send messengers and convey messages to the storm, the refusal on the other side was absolute.
At this point, the new chairman of Tikva clarifies, in closed and open conversations, that he is loyal to his central election promise not to sit under Netanyahu. Saar fears that his fate, especially the media, will be the same as that of Bnei Ganz, who went through a similar path and ended up under Netanyahu. They are two completely different worlds. Saar has pockets of support fortified in the mainstream media. Criticism will be heard, but it will not be as deadly and sharp as that of Gantz.
In addition, Saar and Gantz belong to a completely different base. Gantz was based on the left. His joining Netanyahu was difficult. Saar was based on the right. Although one who did not want Netanyahu in power, but right. That right wanted to see him as prime minister and not Netanyahu, but from here to Queen Lapid in their votes, there is a long way to go. would prefer yet Netanyahu.
when the masks fall
three elections, Netanyahu was unable to bring the renegades. therefore, the assumption of all involved is that this time the situation will be no different. In contrast, Netanyahu can time surprise. Moreover - this time opened a real possibility Collaborate with Mansour Abbas and lean a right-wing coalition on the fingers of the PM.
It's not easy.
First of all in essence.
It will indeed be possible to swear by a government, because the avoidance of the RAAM will give Netanyahu a majority (to the extent that the right joins). It may also be possible to function reasonably when the RAAM fingers move miraculously in the same direction as the coalition members' fingers are raised.
The problem will begin when the Arab national interest floats above the surface.
Like, for example, an operation in Gaza.
Despite the new civilian attire of Abbas and his friends, in wartime everyone wears a uniform.
It's just that their uniforms may be more similar to the colors of Hamas uniforms than IDF uniforms. And here a problem will arise.
And there is also the political issue. Smutrich will not be in a hurry to violate his commitment not to sit in such a government, unless it turns out beyond doubt A Zionist party, or at least the Arab national issue has been completely abandoned by it.
And perhaps he will come to the conclusion that the other alternatives - such as a left-wing government or a fifth election - are much worse in the eyes of his voters and rabbis.
Minister Ophir Akunis is apparently less stressed, and those around him said this week: "There is a clear right-wing government, clear as it has not been since Lieberman defected from the right-wing bloc to the left-wing bloc after the first elections in April 2019. Only personal whims prevent this."