The Institute for National Security Studies describes a scenario in which Israel will experience severe damage to major cities and strategic sites using precision missiles • Author of the report, Brigadier General (Res.) Udi Dekel: "The scenario is extreme but relevant";
"The home front is a weak point and there is not enough investment in preparation for such an event"
Cheap and unsophisticated development of missiles and rockets.
Missile drill in Oman Bay
Photo:
IPI
This is a warning: a missile attack that disrupts the defense and rehabilitation systems of the State of Israel is a difficult extreme scenario.
Despite this, Brigadier General (Res.) Udi Dekel deployed it extensively and without hesitation, as part of a report by the Institute for National Security Studies, the title of which speaks for itself: "Never resilience."
The threat of a powerful missile attack and widespread damage to the Israeli home front has so far had a relatively meager presence in the public and media discourse.
But already in 2020 and even now, in 2021, Dekel and the institute he runs rank him high on the updated map of threats to Israel.
Although the nuclear threat is more serious, in the short term, the more immediate threat is a war that could break out in the north and east, against a coalition led by Iran and involving Hezbollah, Syria, pro-Iranian militias and elements attacking us from western Iraq.
The extreme scenario that Dekel - who in his last position in the IDF was head of the strategic division in the planning department at the General Headquarters - defines as "absolutely relevant", describes a whole arsenal of weapons aimed at us, including: missiles and unmanned aircraft from Syria and Lebanon (Hezbollah), missiles Ballistic missiles and cruise missiles from Iran and Iraq, "and in a secondary scenario also" rockets, attack gliders and mortar shells from the Gaza Strip. " in Israel".
The preferred targets for attack in Israel are what the report calls "value-based strategic targets": "air defense batteries (in an attempt to neutralize), refineries in Haifa, power and relay stations and desalination facilities, warehouses of toxic materials, gas infrastructure, Prime Minister's Office, Knesset, The General Staff building, command headquarters, naval bases, air force bases, airports, seaports, army bases, the IDF headquarters in the Kirya, interception arrays ... "
" If the enemy succeeds in launching large barrages (hundreds of missiles) At the same time from different arenas "- which, according to Dekel, is" an unreasonable capability "-" Israel's air defense is expected to have difficulty dealing with the threat.
The result will be destruction, and in some circumstances even killing on a very large scale in the center of the population.
This is a terrible outline of severe damage to major cities and strategic sites using precision missiles - an outline that Israel has never experienced before.
"" No effective response "
The difficult scenario of the Institute for National Security Studies is here, after a successful trial of the Barak ER missile was completed last month. The airspace, and the official announcement of the development of the 4th generation Arrow system, both developments are intended to deal with the threat of ballistic missiles, and only recently (Maj. Gen.) Yitzhak Brick defined the State of Israel as "the most threatened country in the world." He believes that "Israel has no proper solution to this threat, neither on the offensive level nor on the defensive level." But Brick is recognized as an almost permanent professional opposition to the security establishment, while the horror scenario, to which an entire chapter was devoted in the report, was written by a body careful to clash with the establishment. this.
Anyone who reads the chapter that Dekel wrote will be impressed by the wide gap between the intensifying missile threat to Israel's and its residents, and the repression and complacency in front of it by the general public.
The Israeli home front is defined by Dekel and the institute in the outline in question as "a critical weakness in the state's ability to cope with prolonged combat systems."
"Israel," the report notes, "is investing in preparing the home front for war, but not enough and especially not in preparing for the outline described in the extreme scenario, which is based on trends that have long existed in the regional threat map.
The home front's ability to deal with damage and many casualties requires cohesion among the people and a sense of justice and trust in a responsible government that cares first and foremost about the future of Israel. "
Recently, in a conversation with us, Dekel estimated that the public is unaware of the heavy prices that could result from deteriorating into this bad scenario. "Support Bambam (the battle between the wars), even if its price will be a total war," he says.
The IDF is now known to be active in operations against Iranian targets in Syria. "But a similar rate," Dekel notes, "does not fully understand what the price of a total war is.
Someone needs to explain to the public what things are meant for.
"We have a big debate among the experts," he says, "against the background of the public's weakness, as revealed to us during the epidemic: whether even in the case of a difficult security incident of the kind we describe, the public will fall in spirit and resilience. "The public will once again show the same solidarity that has characterized it in the past during wars. This is especially important when it comes to discipline and compliance with instructions, which are essential elements in defending the home front against severe attack, in order to reduce casualties."
Dekel's loaded paper refrained from mentioning casualties and casualties, but noted that "the state avoids exposing the magnitude of the risk in order to preserve deterrence, reassure the public and keep quiet during normal hours ..." Dekel estimates that "if our deterrence capability is harmed, civilians will have difficulty He notes that in the arms race between the attacking enemy and defensive Israel, Israel is inferior in the first place because the development and production of missiles and rockets is cheap and relatively unsophisticated, compared to the development and production of air defense systems and interceptors ".
it also offers decision-makers to consider the abilities that develop powers, especially Russia, in areas such as cruise missiles, supersonic and ballistic missiles are difficult to predict in advance the flight and intercept them, can that could ultimately reach our region.
palm describes how Israel developed A multi-layered air defense system, against families of threats from different ranges: Iron Dome, magic wand and arrow, but he says, "This concept does not provide an effective response to the various advanced threats, especially in a multi-arena combat environment and attacking weapons of various types at the same time.
" Never resilience "there is
A long list of means of threat, from the most primitive and relatively simple that can reach a range of up to 40 kilometers, through Fajr rockets with a range of 90-50 km and Zalala rockets (200-100 km), to Fatah missiles 100 and if- 600 for ranges of up to 500 km.
Some of them carry accurate warheads and may be launched from Lebanon and Syria.
The list also includes Scud missiles of various models, with a range of 700-300 km. These may also be launched from Syria and northern Lebanon, Shihab missiles 3 and 4 for ranges of 2,000-1,300 km, which may be launched from Iran, and cruise missiles. Advanced with precise domestication capabilities that could be launched from Iran and Iraq.
Israel's Achilles heel in the event of a missile attack is the home front, but not only that: "By using combined barrages of all types of threats from different arenas, enemies may make it difficult for the IDF in its efforts to locate and intercept accurate missiles aimed at strategic and sensitive targets. "Of the IDF command and control system, as well as towards an infrastructure that is essential for the functioning of the home front: water, electricity and food supply."
A new balance of terror has
put another concern on the table, which others have not talked about publicly so far: "Intelligent use of enemy launching resources - for example, launching heavy and varied barrages - that could override the IDF's priority strategy and quickly erode its interceptor inventory.
'
Dekel also refers to the heavy cost of this type of confrontation and fighting: more than $ 30 billion, the cost of armaments alone, without calculating further damage to life and property.
What are the possible factors that could lead to such a missile attack on Israel?
"It is likely that an attack on Israel will develop in response to escalation events, which will strengthen the enemy's motivation to carry out missile and air strikes from the air and increase its regional and international legitimacy."
What escalation events are involved?
"Undercover Israeli attack - without accepting Israeli responsibility - on Iran's nuclear development infrastructure sites, which will severely damage infrastructure, Iranian scientists and other workers; Israeli attack on precision missile assembly sites and storage sites in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, causing heavy losses to Iranian and Quds forces Hezbollah; or "an act of terrorism by Jewish extremists that will destroy significant parts of the al-Aqsa Mosque and cause thousands of direct and / or indirect casualties in the riots that will ensue."
Dekel fears a sudden event, rather than a gradual deterioration. "When it comes to the process," he explains. He warns that we need to prepare for the worst, but also because in this case, the worst case scenario may simply come "as a result of a deterioration that no one wants."
The basic premise of the extreme scenario is that "Israel's enemies, especially Iran, are aware of the weaknesses and gaps in the Israeli home front's defense capability and direct their efforts to achieve the ability to conduct a long and multi-scene campaign, in which sites essential to military continuity will be attacked.
A. and the civilian.
The goal is to undermine Israel's functioning, disrupt its fighting capabilities, weaken its economic and social resilience over time, and present a picture of victory that will affect the public consciousness in Israel. ”
The report also devotes space to the“ precision revolution, ”which“ dramatically changes the attack capabilities of "The enemy's firing of several accurate missiles is far more effective than indiscriminate firing of dozens or hundreds of statistical missiles and rockets. The enemy's ability to achieve a 'victory picture' due to striking strategic sites or symbols of the State of Israel - has a new balance of terror."
Against the background of the talks between the US and Israel on the Iranian nuclear issue, and the demand that was included in these talks to include other issues such as the threat of ballistic missiles, Dekel mentions that Israel is the one that previously demanded to separate the nuclear issue from other issues. He may therefore consider carefully before changing this policy.
Joe Biden, by the way, promised before he was elected president that in consultation with its allies and partners, the US will negotiate with Iran not just on extending the agreement The nuclear but also its missile plans.Now, after Biden has become president, things are being put to the test.