According to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, this is the most serious situation since Russian military ships attacked Ukrainian vessels in the Sea of Azov at the end of 2018. Saturday, Ukrainian soldier lost his life on the front line.
A situation which is becoming more and more frequent on the border between Ukraine and Russia, in the Donbass region.
Ten soldiers have been killed since the beginning of March, while the number of deaths recorded since the beginning of the year on the Ukrainian side has risen to 21. According to the OSCE, ceasefire violations have increased 30% between the months of February and March.
The majority of Ukrainian soldiers who died were reportedly shot dead by sniper fire.
We take stock of the situation.
What has happened in the last few days?
Ukraine accuses Russia of accumulating thousands of soldiers on the northern and eastern borders, as well as in Crimea, a peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014. According to Kiev, Moscow can now count on the presence of 28,000 separatist fighters and more than 2,000 Russian military advisers and instructors in rebel-controlled territories in eastern Ukraine, as well as 33,000 military personnel in Crimea.
Ukrainian military intelligence therefore accused the Russians of preparing the "entry" of its "regular armed forces" into the separatist territories "on the grounds of protecting" its citizens there, Russia having distributed hundreds of thousands of its passports in these regions.
The Kremlin has not formally denied the troop movements, noting that Russia "moves its armed forces on its territory as it sees fit".
He again denied any Russian presence in the Donbass.
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These tensions come after a record-breaking truce in the second half of 2020 in Ukraine.
But since January, clashes have multiplied between separatists and Ukrainian forces, each side blaming themselves.
In question, the paralysis of the peace talks bringing together Ukraine and Russia under Franco-German mediation.
While the 2015 Minsk peace accords resulting from these four-party negotiations significantly reduced violence, basically no progress has taken place.
The last summit in December 2019 in Paris was not followed by concrete political progress.
No new meeting is planned.
Why does Moscow maintain such pressure?
Vladimir Poutine undoubtedly sees many interests in doing so, which go beyond the sole question of relations between Ukraine and Russia.
The Russian president knows perfectly well that he is thus forcing the West to take a position on the issue.
Foremost among them his American counterpart Joe Biden.
Russia indeed considers its relationship with the West to be at its lowest, and seems determined to show its muscles against the new US president, who has called his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin a "killer" and vowed to do "him". pay ”for interference in the US elections.
"The Russians show that they are not afraid of anyone," notes Oleksandr Lytvynenko, director of the National Institute for Strategic Studies.
Another advantage: Moscow is putting "Ukraine in its place", he continues.
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For Kiev, insisting on the growing Russian threat is an opportunity to mobilize its Western support and in particular to see Washington, after the Trump presidency, reaffirm its alliance.
Washington has also reacted by placing its forces in Europe in a phase of enhanced surveillance against a "potential imminent crisis".
The Ukrainian authorities, who claim to have had to retaliate repeatedly against the Russians, say they hope for a diplomatic response.
"We are not looking for escalation, we are fundamentally attached to a political and diplomatic resolution of this conflict," assures the Minister of Foreign Affairs.
We only open fire if there is a threat to our soldiers on the ground and if they are attacked ”.
What is the international community responding to?
On Thursday, Russia warned that an escalation of the conflict in the Donbass could "destroy" Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov added on Friday that Moscow would take "all necessary measures" in the event of Western military interference in Ukraine.
In Paris, it is stressed that they do not "believe in an escalation", according to the Secretary of State for European Affairs, Clément Beaune.
“There are obviously movements of troops.
We do not yet know what that means ”.
President Joe Biden spoke on the case on Friday. "President Biden affirmed the unwavering support of the United States for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression in Donbass and Crimea", during a telephone exchange with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, according to the White House report. The Ukrainian leader hailed the "crucial partnership" with Washington at the end of this exchange.