Few people infected with corona infect many people with the corona virus.
A scientist from Stuttgart represents this thesis in the Covid 19 pandemic in Germany.
Munich / Stuttgart - The probabilities and dangers related to the coronavirus can be calculated mathematically.
At least there are several such approaches in the corona pandemic in Germany to make the almost incomprehensible a little more tangible.
The latest mathematical thesis comes from Stuttgart, the city where corona deniers without face masks and distance rules caused a lot of excitement on Saturday (April 3).
Professor Christian Hesse teaches mathematics at the University of the state capital of Baden-Württemberg.
Corona pandemic in Germany: the risk of infection with the corona virus is greater indoors
With regard to the new corona infections and the Covid-19 numbers, Hesse says: "Even if the large majority behaves in an exemplary manner, that does not mean that the increase in the number of cases will be slowed down."
The scientist bases his thesis on the so-called Pareto principle.
As the basis of his probability calculation, he takes infections in closed indoor spaces.
“The difference between inside and outside is actually very serious.
So outside in the same setting, the probability is only a twentieth of the probability that it would be inside, "explains Hesse in an interview with
Welt.de
(behind a payment barrier):" In other words: a meeting indoors is 20 times more likely to lead to the same setting for an infection as when it takes place outside. "
Corona infections in Germany: applicable to the virus?
This is what the Pareto principle says
Pareto principle
: also called the 80-20 rule
Named after
: Economist Vilfredo Pareto (Italy)
Definition
: With 20 percent of the effort you usually achieve 80 percent of the result.
For 20 percent of the remaining result you would need 80 percent of the effort.
Corona example according to mathematician Hesse
: 80 percent of new coronavirus infections (including in Germany) can be traced back to 20 percent of those infected.
Hesse's conclusion
: 20 percent of those infected with corona are enough to infect another 80 percent with the corona virus - under certain conditions.
Source: youtube, economy simply explained, as of April 4, 2021
But that's not all: According to Hesse, a comparatively small proportion of those infected, around 20 percent, and the majority of those infected, around 80 percent, are infected with the virus.
He goes into more detail on the Pareto principle, which is also called the 80-20 rule.
Corona infections in Germany: mathematics thesis - few infect many with the corona virus
"By this I mean, even if the vast majority of people behave in an exemplary manner in the sense of what the ordinances provide, i.e. avoiding contact and so on, this does not mean that the increase in the number of cases will be slowed down and ultimately reversed", says the mathematician from Stuttgart, "because the wave is not based on the majority of the population, but actually follows the so-called Pareto principle".
20 percent of those infected are responsible for 80 percent of new infections.
Christian Hesse, professor of mathematics in Stuttgart
According to the theory, for example, 20 percent of motorists cause 80 percent of traffic accidents, and 20 percent of buyers would buy for 80 percent of sales.
“And it is the same in the pandemic.
20 percent of those infected are responsible for 80 percent of new infections, ”the scientist continues.
Coronavirus pandemic in Germany: mathematician from Stuttgart suspects "intensive spreader"
In this respect, it does not depend on the majority, on the majority behavior, "but much more on the behavior of this small minority of intensive spreaders who start the pandemic," he says.
But what is the solution to counteract this initial situation in the corona pandemic?
According to Hesse, there is only one answer to this: vaccination.
“The vaccination rate has stagnated for a while.
Now it has picked up a bit of speed again.
(...) The pace would actually have to be doubled in order to achieve herd immunity by October ", calculates Hesse and explains:" And that consists in the fact that 60 to 70 percent of the population are immunized.
Only then can one expect life to return to a kind of normalcy for all of us. ”And no longer infect relatively few relatively many.
(pm)
