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Saber noise in the seas of China

2021-04-04T04:53:43.604Z


The Asian giant increases its pressure on Taiwan as rivalry with the United States intensifies The Philippine air force has been patrolling the waters of the Whitsun reef —or Julián Felipe—, in its Exclusive Economic Zone, daily for weeks to monitor the “threatening” flotilla of about 200 Chinese ships, according to the Philippine government. Beijing assures that the vessels are fishing vessels, but Manila and Washington defend that they are maritime militias docked there or on other islets


The Philippine air force has been patrolling the waters of the Whitsun reef —or Julián Felipe—, in its Exclusive Economic Zone, daily for weeks to monitor the “threatening” flotilla of about 200 Chinese ships, according to the Philippine government.

Beijing assures that the vessels are fishing vessels, but Manila and Washington defend that they are maritime militias docked there or on other islets in the area.

In addition, this week, Japan and Taiwan have denounced Chinese aircraft flights in their air identification zones;

In the case of Taipei, on Friday, March 26, there was the largest Chinese air raid in one day to date.

Once again, the area of ​​the South and East China Sea, considered the most likely scene of a hypothetical war between China and the United States, is heating up again as the rivalry between the two countries with the largest military budget in the world intensifies .

Washington appeals to its allies and tries to reinforce the so-called Quad, the informal defensive alliance that groups it with Japan, Australia and India.

Both sides flex muscles and warnings are sent in the form of military maneuvers.

Beijing has just started some in the South China Sea and France and the Quad countries will start others tomorrow in the Bay of Bengal.

French ships are expected to join joint exercises between US and Japanese forces for the first time next month in the Kyushu area of ​​southern Japan.

In part, the Chinese activity may be due to the celebration, next July, of the first centenary of the Communist Party of China, a momentous date for Beijing, which wants to show how far it has come in these hundred years.

And he is not willing to let anything, or anyone, spoil that party.

But this time, the noise of sabers finds Washington more concerned than on other occasions.

The outgoing head of the US command in the Indo-Pacific region, Admiral Philip Davidson, has warned that the US is losing the advantage it enjoyed in the regional military balance.

The modernization of the Chinese Armed Forces means that it already has more ships than its rival, 360, about 50 more than the first power.

China represents "the greatest long-term threat to security in the 21st century," Davidson declared March 9 at a hearing in the US Congress.

In the US military establishment it is especially frightening that the noise could be the prelude to the worst of its nightmares: that China tries to take Taiwan, the self-governed island (and world power in the fundamental sector of semiconductors) that Beijing considers an inalienable part of its territory and its primary strategic interest.

For the government of Xi Jinping, taking it would complete Chinese national integrity and break the belt of allied islands of the United States that closes the exit to the Pacific for China.

"We accumulate risks that could prompt China to unilaterally change the status quo in Taiwan, before our forces are able to respond effectively," Davidson added.

"Clearly, Taiwan is one of their ambitions ... and I think the threat will be real throughout this decade, in fact, in the next six years."

China considers it preferable to achieve unification - its great objective - by peaceful means, but it has never renounced the use of violence to achieve it and even Xi has referred to annexation as a sine qua non part of the "Chinese dream" of making the country one great power.

But a military attack would force Washington to intervene: its laws force it to come out in defense of Taipei.

Taiwan "is becoming the most dangerous point in the world for a possible war involving the United States, China and possibly other great powers," warns the study United States, China and Taiwan, a strategy to prevent war, published in March by the Council on Foreign Relations.

  • USA vs China: scenarios of the new cold war

  • US warns Beijing of its maneuvers in the South China Sea

The reason is that there has been a series of “structural changes” that move away the possibility of a peaceful unification and bring that of a conflict closer, explains Robert Blackwill, one of its co-authors, by videoconference.

The repression in Hong Kong "has destroyed the idea that a benign unification was possible, under the principle of one country, two systems between China and Taiwan."

The Taiwanese population is increasingly skeptical of China and develops a sense of identity of its own;

on the other side of the strait, nationalism grows in a country on the rise;

and Taipei has shown "renewed interest in military modernization such as has not been seen in 25 years."

Last week, a score of Chinese military aircraft, including bombers, entered the Taiwanese air identification zone, the largest incursion so far.

On Monday, another dozen Chinese planes returned to the island's air defense zone of 23 million people.

These kinds of incursions around Taiwan that put pressure on the

Sino-skeptical government

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen have become more frequent over the past year.

According to the Taiwanese Defense Ministry, they recorded 18 air raids in March, 17 in February and 27 in January.

A situation that supposes a huge economic wear - about 765 million euros until last October - and physical for the small Taiwanese army, with a budget of only 9,350 million euros, compared to the 212,000 million of its neighbor.

Its planes have stopped keeping up with the Chinese, who are now targeted by anti-aircraft missile systems on the island in an action that the Taiwanese military describes as a "war of attrition."

To protect their positions, they unveiled plans this week to buy an advanced version of US Patriot surface-to-air missiles.

But experts like Cui Lei of the Chinese Institute for International Studies are skeptical about the possibility of an invasion.

"The political stakes are very high if the use of force is unsuccessful," he writes in the

East Asia Forum

magazine

.

Lonnie Henley, a former East Asian specialist in US military intelligence, speaks in a similar vein.

China, he believes, would only become older if it came to the conclusion that future unification was impossible by peaceful means.

Otherwise, it would not risk "suffering the disasters that it would inevitably suffer in everything that it is trying to achieve at the international level: in its economy, its trade, its international perception."

The Chinese authorities, he believes, have other, more pressing internal priorities.

Although that does not mean that the saber noises are going to stop.

Or that Beijing is going to give up keeping its pressure in the area.

This February it passed a law allowing its coastguards to open fire on foreign ships in disputed waters.

The Philippines, in addition to the presence of boats, denounces new illegal Chinese structures in the vicinity of the Whitsun reef.

"These constructions and other activities, economic or otherwise, harm the peace, order and security of our territorial waters," the Philippine Army declared in a statement.

Diplomatic pressures from the US

On Monday, the United States, which has repeatedly expressed its support for Taiwan, sent its representative in Palau as a companion on a visit to Taipei by the president of that state in the Pacific, one of the 15 diplomatic allies that the island maintains.

He was the first American ambassador to set foot on Taiwanese soil in the last 40 years, in a gesture of support for the government of Tsai Ing-wen.


Throughout these months, the United States has sent several warships and completed military exercises in the South China Sea, near the Taiwanese coast.

He has also lobbied his allies in the area, especially Japan, in support of the island.

At their meeting in Tokyo last month, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Japanese counterpart Toshimitsu Motegi "underscored the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait," an official statement said.

For her part, the Taiwanese President, Tsai Ing-wen, has reiterated her desire to reinforce the local armed forces with weapons: "we cannot give up an inch of our soil," she urged during a visit to a naval base.


Source: elparis

All news articles on 2021-04-04

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