They estimate that Brazil could have 100,000 more deaths from coronavirus in April alone

04/04/2021 16:10

• Clarín.com

• World

Updated 04/04/2021 16:10

, in the United States,

predicts 100,000 deaths

from coronavirus in Brazil only during the month of April.

According to a survey by the institution - which considers factors such as the spread of virus variants, the use of masks and respect for social distance - the number of deaths can jump from the 330,297 current deaths, registered on Saturday,

to 436 thousand. May 4.

The university designs three scenarios for the country, and the numbers refer to the worst of them.

That total could drop to 429,000 deaths if 95% of the population wears a mask in public.

The university also projects that at the end of the first semester, Brazil will

reach the 595,000 death mark

in the worst case scenario.

In the case of the adoption of masks in public by 95% of the population, that number can drop to 507 thousand.

The Vila Formosa cemetery, in San Pablo, collapsed due to the deaths.

AP Photo

The three scenarios

1- Current scenario

Total deaths in the pandemic up to the next 30 days: 436,151.

Total deaths in the pandemic at the end of the first semester:

595,521.

In this scenario, the university considers: mobility of the unvaccinated following the pattern presented in the last year.

25% of those vaccinated move again as they did before the pandemic.

The British, South African and Brazilian variants spread between neighboring regions at the rate already recorded in the United Kingdom. 

Cases are declining

among those who were vaccinated 90 days ago.

2-

The worst case

Total deaths in the pandemic up to the next 30 days: 434,702.

Total deaths in the pandemic at the end of the first semester: 519,018 In this scenario, the university considers: Displacement of those who have not yet been vaccinated, remaining as they were in the last year.

All those vaccinated return to pre-pandemic levels.

 The Brazilian and South African variants are

beginning to spread in places they have not yet reached

;

Vaccination efficacy is lower compared to the South African variant;

Use of masks among those vaccinated.

3 - Scenario with the use of masks in public by 95% of the population

Total deaths in the pandemic up to the next 30 days: 429,634.

Total deaths in the pandemic at the end of the first semester: 507,113.

Mobility of the unvaccinated

following the pattern presented in the last year.

25% of those vaccinated move again as they did before the pandemic.

The British, South African and Brazilian variants spread between neighboring regions at the rate already recorded in the United Kingdom.

The correct use of the mask is being adopted by 95% of the population.

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