Eduardo Paladini
04/05/2021 11:13
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 04/05/2021 11:13
While the ruling party and the opposition, national and provincial, debate what to do with the PASO and the general legislative 2021, a similar uncertainty appears in the anticipated
war of polls
in the face of that mid-term fight.
Clarín
now agreed to a new electoral study that brings the latest numbers at
the Nation, Province and City level
.
With a polarization that has not yet settled and a predictably high level of undecided.
The survey that addressed the issue is from
Opinaia
, a pioneering consultancy in online measurements.
After several successes in 2015 and 2017, in the presidential 2019 he was far behind with his forecasts, like most of the firms.
Between March 10 and 25, it surveyed
1,800 cases
, with a margin of error of +/- 2.2%.
This is a
national study
, but with cuts by district.
For example in voting intention.
Opinaia's
"Citizen Thermometer"
starts with a summary of the general results of the March survey.
- "The
positive evaluation
of
Alberto Fernández's
management
falls for the fourth consecutive month
, reaching 42% of general approval. Although he manages to maintain a good part of his electoral base, he loses ground among the independent electorate."
- "For Argentine public opinion, the
economy still shows no signs of recovery
. The assessment of the current situation continues to be markedly negative, while expectations continue to decline. As time passes, the
government
of Alberto Fernández is seen as the
main person responsible
for this situation ".
- "As in the last two editions of the Thermometer,
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
and
María Eugenia Vidal
are the two best-positioned leaders, with a favorable image balance".
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, Axel Kicillof and Alberto Fernández at the Quinta de Olivos.
People will audit their efforts in the next legislative sessions.
- "There is a
slight recovery
in the general approval of what the
Government has been doing with the pandemic
, exceeding 50% acceptance. Specifically, the management and handling of the coronavirus is the best evaluated aspect of the Government, compared to the economy, security, poverty and transparency ".
- "The
predisposition to be vaccinated
against Covid-19 reaches a
majority consensus
, registering the highest value since October of last year. Again, the Sputnik-V vaccine would be the most chosen, while the vaccine of Chinese origin awakens the lowest level trustworthy ".
- "
Only three out of ten
people
would support the return to a strict quarantine in the
face of a possible second wave of the virus. However, the need to take some type of restrictive measure of activities and / or circulation is recognized."
National voting intention
The first question of the electoral chapter addresses the issue in a binary way and with the Government as the subject.
Similar to what other consulting
firms
, such as Giacobbe & Asociados, have been
doing
,
Opinaia
inquires: "Regardless of who you plan to vote for,
how would you like the government of Alberto Fernández to do in the next elections?
"
-
41%
would like me
to lose
(one point more than in February).
-
32%
would like me
to win
(two points more than in February).
- At the
27%
will not
care
(three points less than in February).
Then, the firm makes an interesting
"Political Segmentation"
, according to the probability of the vote.
-
Polo K
reaches
36%
(down one point compared to February), among
21%
of
"faithful"
who "would vote for sure for the FdT and would never vote for JxC", plus
15%
of
"
supporters"
who "could vote to the FdT and they would never vote for JxC ".
-
Polo C
reaches
43%
(up three points compared to February), among
20%
of
"faithful"
who "would vote for JxC and never vote for the FdT", plus
23%
of
"supporters"
who "could vote. to JxC and they would never vote for the FdT ".
- The
Independents
add up to
21%
, between
14%
of those who
"would not vote for either of the two"
and
7%
of those who
"could vote for both"
.
v 1.5
Nation electoral survey
Based on a survey of 1,800 cases.
In %.
Tap to explore the data
Source:
Opinaia
Infographic:
Clarín
Then he asks about the intention to vote for space at the national level, with the logic of the alliances of the last presidential.
And there is
almost a triple tie
between the
Front of All
,
Together for Change
and the
undecided
.
1)
"Don't know"
:
26%
.
2) "
Together for the Change
of Mauricio Macri and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta":
25%
.
3) "
Front of All
of Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner":
24%
.
4) "To
none
":
12%
.
5) "
José Luis Espert
Awakening Front
":
5%
.
6) "
Non-Kirchnerist Peronism
of Juan Schiaretti":
4%
.
7) "
Left Front of
Nicolás del Caño and Myriam Bregman":
2%
.
8) "
NOS Front
of Juan José Gómez Centurión":
2%
.
The polarization does not reach 50%, when in the general of 2019 it approached 90 points.
Buenos Aires voting intention
The consultancy also makes the cut in the
province of Buenos Aires
, where although
the Frente de Todos prevails
, it does so by a
clearly smaller difference than
that obtained in 2019 on Together for Change, both in the national categories (President) and in the provincial (Governor).
According to the latest
Opinaia
numbers
, the
ruling party
would reach
28%
, against
24%
of the main
opposition alliance
.
The
undecided
sneak into the middle, with
26%
, and set up another almost triple tie, with a polarization that is also light.
They complete:
v 1.5
Electoral survey Province
Based on a survey of 1,800 cases.
In %.
Tap to explore the data
Source:
Opinaia
Infographic:
Clarín
4)
"To none"
:
10%
.
5)
"Front Awakening"
:
4%
.
6)
"Non-Kirchnerist Peronism"
:
3%
.
7)
"Left Front"
:
3%
.
8)
"Front NOS"
:
2%
.
Compared to February, the
biggest changes
were a rise of four points in the undecided and a decrease in equal proportion of the "To none".
Buenos Aires voting intention
It is the
scenario where there
is the
most difference
between the two main forces.
Together for Change takes
10 points
to the Front of Everyone in the City: 36% to 26%.
In any case, the gap is smaller than the one achieved in 2019 (both in the presidential and for the head of government).
And compared to February, there was an improvement of five points in Kirchnerism and a drop of two in Macrismo.
In this case, the
undecided
did not intervene in the fight above: they fell five points in March, to remain at
15%
.
And the polarization is a little deeper: 62 points between the FdT and JxC.
v 1.5
Electoral survey City
Based on a survey of 1,800 cases.
In %.
Tap to explore the data
Source:
Opinaia
Infographic:
Clarín
They complete:
4)
"To none"
:
9%
.
5)
"Front Awakening"
:
7%
.
6)
"Left Front
":
3%
.
7)
"Peronism no K"
:
1%
.
8)
"Front NOS"
:
1%
.
