Eduardo Paladini
04/05/2021 15:56
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 04/05/2021 16:00
The hook thrown in public by
Sergio Massa
to suspend the PASO or join them with this year's general election - to go just one day to vote - ended up setting up a board with
four variants
for the
midterm
legislative elections.
To the two mentioned by the head of the Chamber of Deputies, another pair will have to be added: that both days be postponed for a month or that the original schedule be maintained.
By law, the
primaries
must be held on the
second Sunday in August
, which in 2021 falls on the 8th. The
general ones
, meanwhile, remain for the
third Sunday in October
(it would be the 24th).
This was confirmed by the Electoral Justice weeks ago.
But with different spokesmen and intensity, from different sectors of the ruling party (Cabinet, governors, Congress) they made it known that
the least they would like to do is comply with the law
as it is.
Everything, of course, in the name of the pandemic.
Within the Frente de Todos, there are nuances and contradictions.
Máximo Kirchner
, for example, asks to
support the inmates
.
He believes that in that instance La Cámpora can continue to gain space.
I would then accept a postponement or unification, but not a suspension of the primaries.
The official governors were the ones who made the point by raising this last possibility.
But then, one of them,
Gustavo Sáenz
, from
Salta
, called to vote on July 4 in his province for local positions.
Wasn't the idea to avoid people crowding together twice in schools to prevent contagion?
Máximo Kirchner and Sergio Massa, at the end of March in Congress.
Photo Guillermo Rodríguez Adami.
Within the
opposition
there are also
bids and tension
.
A couple of radical leaders (
Gerardo Morales from
Jujuy
and
Gustavo Valdés from
Corrientes
) spoke out in favor of a suspension.
At one point, they follow the logic of their Peronist colleagues: they reduce health risk by mobilizing people for just one day and they trust their local government strength to win the election.
The position of
Horacio Rodriguez Larreta
is particular.
As local president, he could follow the trend of his provincial colleagues and endorse the suspension (he would not run the risk of defeat in his district with any scheme), but as an
opposition
national benchmark
his scenario changes.
The general reading that is made of the 2021 elections -particularly in the province of Buenos Aires- may leave it better (or worse) planted for 2023.
And what is good for
Together for Change
as an alliance?
The antecedents and the gaze of the bulk of the analysts coincide: within the framework of the crack, the PASO functioned (and could function again) as an
ordering body for the anti-Kirchnerist vote
.
Under that position, they would have to be kept (and separated).
What happened in 2015
Macri's presidential debut is perhaps the most powerful precedent.
The leader of the PRO won
24.5%
of the positive votes
in the
primaries
of that year
(with 3.3% from Ernesto Sanz and 2.3% from Elisa Carrió, Cambiemos totaled 30.1%).
It grew to
34.15%
in the
general
and ended up winning in the second round with 51.3%.
Beyond the fact that the victory was consummated in the ballot, the
key step was between the primaries and the general
, where there was a
clear anti-K wave
.
About two million new voters were added to the PASO and Macri captured the majority.
Daniel Scioli grew, but less, and thus he headed for a defeat.
The rest of the forces roughly maintained what they had obtained in the PASO.
For the triumph of Cambiemos, in this case,
the performance of Massa
was
key
, which contained a Peronist vote not K, around 20 points.
What happened in 2017
In this election, the case study is the
province of Buenos Aires
.
Not only because it is the most important district in the country, with about 40% of the total voters, but because in that fight Kirchnerism was represented by
Cristina Kirchner
.
And a precedent was given that may be a red alert for Together for Change.
In the 2017 primaries, after a slow and controversial provisional count, the final scrutiny gave the former president a meager victory for the category of Buenos Aires national senators: he beat Esteban Bullrich
by about 20,000 votes, two tenths,
(almost ) nothing.
But in the general election, Cambiemos grew again and ended up prevailing: there were about 250,000 more voters, but especially Massa deflated and a bulk of those voters left with Bullrich.
New anti-K phenomenon
between a STEP and a general one that favored a macrista.
With a fact for history: if only one election was made, Cristina would probably have won.
What happened in 2019
Although in this case
there was no happy ending
for Together for Change,
the trend repeated itself
.
Without internal rivals, Macri repeated in PASO 2019 what he had added in the first round of 2015: he dropped only one point (from 34% to 33% in round numbers).
But the union of almost all Peronism (Alberto and Cristina + Massa - Lavagna), reached the Frente de Todos to liquidate the party.
However, even with this very adverse result,
Juntos por el Cambio again made a big leap between PASO and general
.
With the same logic of 2015, although with a different purpose.
Again, about two million more voters joined and the majority voted in favor of Macri and against Kirchnerism.
The formula with Pichetto exceeded 40 points (7 more than in the primaries), but the 48 of the Fernándezes were enough to win without a ballot.
What can happen in 2021
For analysts, with the current crack, the phenomenon could repeat itself.
Especially if you look at the two districts that focus the most attention:
CABA and the province of Buenos Aires
.
In both, third figures / alliances appear that threaten to take a key portion of the fight.
In the City,
José Luis Espert's
Liberals
measure up to double digits in various polls.
It is basically a vote opposed to Kirchnerism and
could harm Juntos por el Cambio
.
But if there is a STEP and the polarization becomes more acute, would they stay with Espert for the general or would they take a leap to harm the Frente de Todos?
In the Province, those same liberals measure some points (Espert would appear there) and there are also movements to rearm non-Kirchnerist Peronism, with
Florencio Randazzo
as a figure.
Already in 2017, his performance (albeit regular) was key to favor a victory for Cambiemos.
What would happen now?
José Luis Esperti and Ricardo López Murphy.
The Liberals are going separately and threatening to draw votes from Together for Change.
With this background scenario, the main referents of Together for Change promise to define a common position this Tuesday.
The hard wing (with
Patricia Bullrich
at the head) asks to
reject any proposal from the Frente de Todos
and keep the calendar as it is.
He believes that even a postponement can end in a K move to -with the pretext of the pandemic- end up suspending the PASSES or unifying both rounds.
Governor
Morales
, who spoke out in favor of the suspension and will participate in the internal debate,
promised that he would join a consensual position
.
One of the doubts is Larreta
: with a slightly tougher profile against Kirchnerism than a few months ago, he would
reject a suspension or unification
.
Understand that the primaries help to add allies and align internal.
He emerged as a star figure in the PRO when he beat Gabriel Michetti in the City in 2015. Could you instead accept a postponement of the two instances if the cases continue to increase?
Will any of the referents introduce the single ballot variable to further thin the board?