In the face of the Biden administration, which is committed to returning to the agreement at all costs, there is an Iranian regime that repeatedly raises the price • Interpretation
Today, after several months of hot air carrying with it rumors, interpretations and parts of leaks, we are witnessing the opening shot of the official negotiations between the Biden administration and the Iranian regime on the nuclear issue.
The parties will meet in Vienna and hold indirect European-mediated negotiations to reach understandings on how to get out of the mess. After the Trump administration led the US withdrawal from the agreement the Obama administration signed with the Iranians in 2015, the Biden administration is trying to find a solution to Iran's wild progress toward a nuclear bomb.
The way to do this for both parties is clear and known in advance - Iran is fortifying its demand to return to the same agreement in full "without changing a word in it", a demand that Foreign Minister Zarif "is not open to negotiations". This demand is in principle acceptable to President Biden. , And this is also the official position of the administration on the eve of the talks: "We intend to agree on a roadmap towards a full return to an agreement between the two sides," said Robert Mali, the US special envoy to Iran.
But precisely because the result is clear, drawing the same roadmap will not be a simple craft at all.
The Iranians understood that the Biden administration was interested in buying the goods at any cost - and now they only had to raise it.
Indeed, the price is skyrocketing: the Iranians are demanding, for example, that the United States remove the sanctions it imposed before returning to its obligations under the agreement. The Biden administration, as expected, is already flexible and offers compromises for phasing out sanctions. More importantly, the old US position must be improved. and limitations on the missile program, now sounding not at all.
Meanwhile, the Iranian regime enjoys the image of the victim fostered by progressive trends in the US, and riding the wave of hatred towards the heritage Trump to present itself as a regime striving always to resolve disputes through diplomacy.
The common thought among these circles is that we will only roll back Trump's aggressive moves against Iran - we will return to the safe refinement of the 2015 agreement that promised us a peaceful Iran, which trades with the nations of the world and whose nuclear program is closely monitored.
But nothing can be further from reality.
Allegedly, the agreement offered a real remedy - stopping the development of a nuclear bomb in exchange for the removal of sanctions and economic pressure;
But the reality is that it was a placebo drug - a global misrepresentation.
The "tightest oversight mechanism ever established" turned out to be a very perforated and partial mechanism, the "sunset" clauses ensured that the agreement would gradually expire within 15 years and thus give Iran an open check to reach an entire nuclear arsenal, and the language was formulated in verbal art. The Iranians have the ability to abide by the agreement and develop a nuclear bomb at the same time.
This is a convenient arrangement for all parties - and no wonder the Biden administration is bringing it back to life.
The Americans and Europeans are gaining politically through a misrepresentation of diplomatic achievement, and the Iranians are enjoying the release of economic pressure while secretly breaking into the nucleus.
Convenient arrangement for everyone - except of course those directly threatened by Iran, namely: Israel and the countries in the region.
These have already made it clear that they will not allow Iran to sneak into the nuclear club under the radar, which many in the world are not interested in seeing.
The Trump administration has embarked on an important process of maximum pressure strategy, and it is truly the only way to curb a fundamentalist and murderous regime like the Iranian regime.
Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi called it a "credible threat": to put a gun on the table and make the Iranians understand that they have a simple choice between nuclear development and regime preservation. Through credible military deterrence, as happened during the assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani Re-Zadeh, and as Israel imposes on Syrian territory and throughout the region; through the arms of Middle Eastern countries like UAE, and through clarification American unequivocally that Iran should not try to Washington - will vest in the option least bad chess this diplomatic process.
the harsh truth is that the threat of reliable and stable deterrence They are the only way to deal with the Iranian regime's murderous ambitions, and not to turn a blind eye, false representations and conciliation. The previous agreement was also signed under the economic pressure of sanctions, and there is no reason to think that this time it will lead to a different outcome. time and place, establish a credible mechanism immediate return to sanctions in case of violations ( "snapback"), cancellation clauses "sunset" invalidate gradual and the issue of ballistic missiles in addition to the immediate resumption of the arms embargo - but also agreement improved not lead to a different outcome without a credible threat.
on Israel Continue to apply pressure p
To the Iranians through the shadow war - the elimination of scientists, cyber attacks and other disruptions - and to exert diplomatic pressure in Washington and the capitals of the West with the message that this time one should not be tempted to buy temporary and artificial silence, and sweep the real problem under the rug.
For Israel, this is not a diplomatic game or a competition for prestige - it is the number one existential danger to national security.
The goal is not the nuclear agreement paper at any cost - but the prevention of a nuclear Iran at any cost.
The reality is clear, and now only political courage remains in the West to look at it.
As Niccolò Machiavelli said in his immortal essay "The Prince": "He who deceives will always find those who let him be deceived."
Or Issachar is a national security researcher and a member of the "Security" movement