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The fear: Iran will attack Israel - its territory Israel today

2021-04-07T20:49:59.038Z


| Security After a series of attacks on its naval assets, Tehran is likely to seek revenge • Iranians can attack with missiles, and more likely - on drones • Interpretation The ship that was attacked Photo:  IP In response to the latest series of clashes between the two countries, which culminated in yesterday's attack on an Iranian intelligence ship in the Red Sea, Israel is also preparing for the poss


After a series of attacks on its naval assets, Tehran is likely to seek revenge • Iranians can attack with missiles, and more likely - on drones • Interpretation

  • The ship that was attacked

    Photo: 

    IP

In response to the latest series of clashes between the two countries, which culminated in yesterday's attack on an Iranian intelligence ship in the Red Sea, Israel is also preparing for the possibility that Iran will attack its territory in the country.

The ship "Sabiz" was hit by naval mines attached to its sides.

Israel did not take responsibility for the incident, but foreign media reported that Squadron 13 was responsible for it, following a series of operations carried out by the unit in the past two years against Iranian targets. 

Unlike previous cases in which Israel reportedly disrupted weapons smuggling or oil smuggling intended to finance terrorism, this time the attack was intended to make it clear to the Iranians that the latest attacks on civilian ships belonging to Israeli businessmen were outside the rules of the game.

Although the damaged ship was operating under civilian disguise, it was a reconnaissance ship that regularly docked near Eritrea, and regularly collected intelligence on the movement of vessels in the Red Sea.

It can be estimated that Iran will not move to the agenda on the latest attack.

One option is to launch ammunition from Iranian territory into Israeli territory. Iranians can attack Israel with missiles, and more likely - with unmanned aerial vehicles (attacking UAVs) with a range of 2,000 km and more. Unlike regular rockets and missiles, the flight profile of This weapon - at a slow speed, close to the ground - is particularly challenging for interception for the Air Force.

As has been reported, the exchange of blows between Israel and Iran has intensified recently, including the Air Force's ongoing attacks against the transfer of advanced weapons to Lebanon and attempts to establish Iranian - sponsored militias in Syria, as well as extensive naval activity. It carried out dozens of operations, most of which resulted in tankers transporting illegal oil from Iran to Syria, and the money from the sale of the oil was intended in part to fund Hezbollah and other terrorist elements, which estimated that the Iranians had lost about $ 2 billion from the oil sale.

Other operations of the 13th Squadron were intended to disrupt the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Earlier this month, a seemingly innocent ship was hit, but it turns out that it was carrying sophisticated equipment designed for Hezbollah's missile precision project in Lebanon. Skimmer attributed to Israel in August 2019.

In response to the sequence of events, Iran attacked at least two Israeli-owned ships that sailed under a foreign flag.

The first attack was aimed at a ship owned by businessman Rami Unger, which was sailing in the Gulf of Oman.

It was hit by mines attached by Iranian commandos to the two sides of the ship.

In the second attack, a ship belonging to businessman Udi Angel was damaged about two weeks ago.

The ship was hit by missiles fired at it from an Iranian vessel.

In both cases, Iran has used a method similar to the one used by Israel: sabotaging ships, but without drowning them or causing casualties.

It seems, however, that the series of attacks suffered by Iran - to which the Mossad's actions can be added on its soil - may now lead to a decision to change policy, including the possibility of a direct attack on Israel not through emissaries.

It can be estimated that such a launch will not take place without the approval of the ruling elite in Iran, including that of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

From past experience it appears that those involved in such Iranian operations are members of the Air Force of the Revolutionary Guards, under the command of Amir Ali Haji Zada.

This is the strategic arm of Iran, which has under it advanced capability in the field of missiles and "air-breathing" missiles (cruise missiles and drones).

This force was also responsible for launching the cruise missiles and UAVs that hit the facilities of the Saudi oil giant Aramco on September 14, 2019, causing it extensive damage.

Iran has never acknowledged that the launch was carried out from its territory at the time, but Western intelligence sources have solid evidence to that effect.

Until recently, Israel estimated that despite the many casualties it had suffered, Iran would refrain from launching munitions from its territory - so as not to risk a direct Israeli response. Even through the Houthis in Yemen, this follows reports that attacking drones have been transferred by the Revolutionary Guards to the Houthis, which has also led to intelligence vigilance and heightened alert in Israel's air defense systems.

If Iran does act directly from its territory, it will, for the first time, shift the war with Israel to visible and direct lines.

So far this war has been waged in the shadows and secretly or on foreign soil and through emissaries, mostly the militias removed despite their presence in Syria.

In February 2018, an Iranian UAV launched from Syria was intercepted while crossing the border into Israeli territory. The IDF responded by attacking Iranian and Syrian targets, and during the attacks, an F-16A ("Storm") was hit and fell.

Three months later, Iran again tried to act against Israel, launching about 40 rockets from Syrian territory in the direction of the Golan Heights.

Most of the rockets landed in Syrian territory and some were intercepted, and in response, the IDF attacked dozens of Iranian targets on Syrian soil in an operation then known as the "House of Cards."

Round of visits to the West

In Israel, it was estimated at the time that Iranian activity was a response to the damage to their attempts to establish themselves in Syria, as well as to the theft of the nuclear archive by the Mossad, which was exposed a few days earlier.

In January 2019, rockets were fired at the Hermon site, which were intercepted by the air defense system.

Also in June 2019, rockets were fired from Syria at Mount Hermon, and one of them fell in Israeli territory without any casualties or damage.

In August 2019, Iran attempted to launch armed skimmers from Syrian territory toward IDF bases in the Golan Heights, but the IDF hit the launch pad prior to the intended attack.

This incident led to an escalation against Hezbollah, which sought revenge for killing Lebanese activists on the grounds that they were members of the organization.

Following the escalation in the campaign with Iran, Israeli security officials have in recent days embarked on a trip to several capitals in the West, to show the governments there the degree of Iranian danger.

The issue came up, among other things, in meetings held by the president and the chief of staff with the top echelons of government in Germany, France and Austria, as well as in a series of meetings recently held in Europe by the head of the Iran and IDF Strategy, Major General Tal Kalman.

Naturally, reports were also sent to the Americans, as well as to Russia.

Source: israelhayom

All news articles on 2021-04-07

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