Who will lead the Union to the Bundestag election?
The Chancellor race between Söder and Laschet is coming to a head.
Political scientist Ursula Münch classifies it for us.
Munich / Berlin - Laschet wants, Söder wants.
And now?
The political scientist Ursula Münch speaks about the sensitive issue of the candidate for chancellor in the Union.
Prof. Münch, six months until the federal election.
Would you trust the Union to win in its current state?
Yes, on one condition: if the pandemic situation improves significantly by then and the majority of the population has been vaccinated, I assume that the mood can improve in favor of the governing parties, above all the Union.
And if not?
If the impression of Corona * mismanagement continues, especially with vaccination and testing, it will be difficult for the Union.
The constant back and forth between opening and closing, the chancellor's displeasure with individual prime ministers, including those from her own party, all of this is hugely damaging.
You forget the bumpy search for a candidate for chancellor ...
One shouldn't overestimate that.
The majority of the population is much more interested in fighting the pandemic than in the question of who will be declared candidate for chancellor and when.
But the Union is electrified and everyone wants to have a say: from individual members to parliamentary groups.
Who is actually legitimized to decide that?
This is not regulated anywhere, but so far there has been consensus that the party leaders of the CDU * and CSU * clarify this with each other.
The Union only has a problem if neither or both want to run.
In that case one could go back to 1980, when the K question was decided in the group.
Helmut Kohl was clever at the time: he did not figure out any chances for himself and knew that the Union would not have a coalition partner even if he won the election.
So he sent Ernst Albrecht over.
As is well known, the parliamentary group chose Franz Josef Strauss as a candidate.
It could be similar today.
Armin Laschet and Markus Söder * apparently both want to compete ...
I'm still not sure about Söder.
It is irritating that although he is constantly fiddling with Armin Laschet *, he does not stand up and say: I would be ready to do it.
Of course, he can turn down the opposing candidate, but that may have an impact on the reputation of the entire Union.
If this half-baked competition between the two goes on for a long time, the frustration of the electorate grows.
So you need a quick decision?
From the point of view of the population, this would have the advantage that the issue would be dealt with.
But I think that Söder is more interested in postponing the decision.
So the attention stays with him and he can nag a little further.
As soon as the matter is decided - possibly against him - he would have to join the Laschet supporters.
Söder would like to let Angela Merkel * participate in the decision-making process, who has always emphasized that she does not want to interfere.
Does this make sense?
It doesn't make sense, nor will it.
The Chancellor will hold back, I'm sure of that.
The polls speak for Söder.
His chances?
The CDU * has to weigh up where the greater danger lies for its electoral success: with a candidate Laschet who may be further damaged until the decision is made, including through his own efforts.
Or with a candidate Söder who is not leading a particularly fair, because unexplained competition.
And how would this Söder be received by the electorate?
In contrast to 1980, there is a CDU chairman who wants to run for office.
In my opinion, that weighs relatively heavily.
With a candidate Söder, the CDU would damage Laschet as party leader and prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia.
Before the CDU takes the risk with Söder, a lot has to be said against Laschet.
There is still Union parliamentary group leader Ralph Brinkhaus as a third option.
Then someone would just have to explain who this Ralph Brinkhaus is.
Seriously, I can't imagine that.
You have just seen with Christian Baldauf in Rhineland-Palatinate that a candidate can be viewed internally, but is therefore far from being able to mobilize voters.
The interview was conducted by Marcus Mäckle.
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