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Laschet and Söder in conversation (archive)
Photo:
Sven Hoppe / picture alliance / dpa
It has been bitter weeks for Armin Laschet recently.
Mask affair, election slips, corona chaos, survey crashes: Laschet was actually supposed to lead the CDU into a glorious future.
But in his barely three-month term as party chairman, he has to deal primarily with crises - in the country, in the Union, personally.
Can this still be the case with the presumed candidate for chancellor?
The Christian Democrats have long since started to slide.
The fear is about going bankrupt in the federal elections.
More and more CDU politicians are taking the side of CSU boss Markus Söder.
The fact that the chairman of the Bavarian sister party leads the Union in the election campaign has always been an historic exception.
But Söder is much more popular with the population than Laschet.
Everything seems open these days.
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Laschet when visiting a vaccination station in North Rhine-Westphalia: mainly dealing with crises
Photo: Political-Moments / imago images
Also because Söder has so far made no move to leave the field to Laschet without a fight.
On the contrary.
The Bavarian Prime Minister has just outlined his visions for the Union and the Republic in SPIEGEL.
It was the appearance of a candidate for chancellor.
There are many indications that a decision between Laschet and Söder is imminent.
Not just because the Greens put pressure on.
On April 19, the eco party wants to reveal the secret of its candidacy for chancellor.
Above all, there is a noticeable growing nervousness in the Union.
And on the weekend there will be a big show between the two opponents.
Laschet and Söder both take part in the retreat of the executive group committee.
It's a highly explosive date, a showdown - at least if there is no agreement by then.
Is everything going very quickly now?
Three scenarios.
Scenario 1: Laschet pulls through
In the past few days, Laschet has apparently sought contact with several CDU top politicians.
That's what you hear from the Union.
The rumor got around that Laschet wanted to push for a decision at the weekend - and convince Söder to give up.
Internally, party friends are said to have signaled to him that Laschet must now show leadership as quickly as possible if he was serious about the K question.
There were indignant reactions from the CSU to Laschet's alleged plans.
State group leader Alexander Dobrindt told the »Bild« that he did not hope »that an attempt is being made here to create one-sided facts«.
One thing is clear: if Laschet cannot easily persuade Söder to take his side with good persuasion, he would have to try a crowbar - and, for example, exert pressure on the parliamentary group and the party's top bodies.
However, such a maneuver involves great dangers.
In any case, it should not contribute to pacifying the Union.
Too many CDU politicians have already publicly positioned themselves against Laschet.
Scenario 2: Laschet leaves the candidacy to Söder
The withdrawal movements are obvious.
Many parliamentarians recently distanced themselves from Laschet.
Seven MPs from Baden-Württemberg alone recently spoke out in favor of Söder.
The federal government’s commissioner for the East, Marco Wanderwitz, once again referred to Laschet’s lousy polls: “You simply have to take note of that and then act accordingly,” said the CDU politician to the “Sächsische Zeitung”.
In the meantime, even former supporters of Laschet are quietly expressing doubts as to whether he is still the right person for the candidacy for chancellor.
Is the pressure getting too big?
Laschet apparently still believes in his chance - but if he also comes to the conclusion that the Union would have better chances in the federal election with Söder, he basically has no choice: Then he has to withdraw and leave the task to his opponent.
For Laschet it would be an almost unprecedented crash within a few weeks at the top of the CDU.
Scenario 3: Open showdown in the faction
If neither Laschet nor Söder give up their own ambitions, a "process," as leading Christian Democrats call it, will be needed to resolve the matter.
The only problem is: What exactly is meant by this is completely open.
There is clearly no plan in the Union.
In any case, the longer the decision drags on, the louder the demands from the parliamentary group to simply take matters into their own hands.
On Friday, 50 MPs signed an appeal, organized by Christian von Stetten, the head of the middle class parliamentary group of the Union parliamentary group.
"As members of a self-confident CDU / CSU parliamentary group, we expect that before a determination of this scope is announced, it will be discussed in a cross-party parliamentary group meeting of the CDU and CSU and, if in doubt, a decision will be made there," it says.
Above all, this is one thing: no vote of confidence in Laschet.
While the situation in the party committees looks even better for him, the faction has long been seething.
He would by no means be sure of a majority.
One thing is certain: an open battle between Söder and Laschet in front of the parliamentary group would continue to weigh heavily on the Union.
On Friday, CDU presidium member Norbert Röttgen, one of Laschet's competitors in the race for party chairmanship, also spoke on Twitter.
Laschet and Söder, according to Röttgen, would have to name the person who "has the best prospects" for an election victory.
Otherwise one would have to "decide in the parliamentary group."
There has been such a case before in the Union. In 1979, Franz-Josef Strauss prevailed in a vote of the parliamentary group and became the Union's candidate for chancellor. As a CSU man.