Rafael Correa, the absent politician who defines the election in Ecuador

Rafael Correa, former president of Ecuador, in 2019 Mario Guzmán / EFE

• The political rift splits in two Ecuador

• The Government of Ecuador dismisses the Minister of Health four days before the elections

• The latest polls point to a technical tie in Ecuador's presidential race

Rafael Correa is a very present absence in Ecuador.

The former president has lived in Belgium, the country of his wife, since 2017, when he handed over power to Lenín Moreno, his candidate and vice president.

The break with Moreno was brutal and Correa ended up sentenced in absentia to eight years in prison for bribery.

He was also disqualified from holding public office.

Correa then repeated Moreno's electoral experiment: for these elections he pushed the presidential candidacy of Andrés Arauz, a 36-year-old politician who was his Minister of Knowledge and Human Talent, from a distance.

On Sunday, Ecuadorians will vote under Correa's shadow, in a kind of referendum on the former president's legacy.

Correa owes much of his political survival to his enemies.

In particular to President Lenín Moreno.

"We have lived four years of a government coalition whose unifying element has been that Correa does not return," says political analyst Jacobo García.

"Lenín Moreno always put Correa as a political actor in his narrative, he keeps him alive by blaming him for everything," agrees Pedro Donoso, director of the Icae consulting firm.

The Ecuadorian justice finally convicted Correa in April 2020 and blocked his political rights.

But his candidates managed to register the Union for Hope platform, led by Arauz.

A good part of the Arauz voter is nostalgic for the golden years of Correísmo.

At that time, Latin America was living off the

boom

in commodity prices and “21st century socialism” shaped redistribution policies in countries such as Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Brazil or Argentina.

The Correa government promoted the doctrine of "good living", distributed money among the poorest and developed the infrastructure with works that have been recorded in the collective memory.

"I vote for Arauz to bring Correa back," say his voters.

"Correa is back," reads a campaign pamphlet.

The vote for Guillermo Lasso, Arauz's rival, is also structured, to a large extent, by the correista inheritance.

It is a vote for "that Correa does not return," while any material legacy of his presidency is reduced to "monuments to corruption."

This fracture orders the electoral board today and will determine the result of Sunday.

To what extent Correa will be a burden for Arauz or the key to victory remains to be seen at the polls.

Jacobo García says that the former president "makes you competitive, he gives you a floor for votes, but also a ceiling."

“It makes the whole wave of rejection that it produces move.

Correa has not managed to decipher the new Ecuadorian society, the one that voted for Yaku Pérez ”, the indigenous candidate who came out third in the first electoral round, with 19.4% of the votes, less than 0.3 points behind Lasso.

"These are people tired of those leaderships and of politics in general," says García.

The challenge of "Correa returns"

Correa will also be a powerful presence should Arauz arrive at Carondelet on Sunday.

Satisfying the expectations synthesized in the "Correa returns" will be a challenge for a new correista government.

Pedro Donoso trusts that the leadership of the former president will be from a distance.

"Arauz is going to play with a symbolic presence of Correa, with bringing him to the debate as a symbol and not as an actor," he explains.

His eventual presidency, in addition, will face an internal transition in the correísmo, with groups that entered with Arauz and others that were relegated.

“Arauz is not a constituted leader and will be subject to fluctuations and internal pressures.

Correa will be the one who is ordering there, ”says García.

The firm convictions against Correa will intensify tension to this inmate, both with the faithful electorate and with the Judicial Power.

Donoso recalls that the former president has already anticipated that he will bet on resolving his situation "in international courts", a strategy that could avoid an open war between powers of the State.

"There is another important factor: the judges who handed down a sentence against Correa are temporary judges and there is already an action to resolve whether their rulings are constitutional or not," he says.

In the event of an adverse ruling, all proceedings against Correa will fall, thus clearing the way for a return without a record.

What if Lasso wins on Sunday?

This former liberal banker will also have to deal with the political legacy of Correísmo, but will have the support of business elites and other power groups for this.

Jacobo García even cites as an advantage the origin of Lasso, linked to the sectors that have made fortunes with the banking system.

“The rational interest in being president of this country is zero.

That Lasso wants to be president is important, because from the comfort of being someone who has nothing to lose, he can generate some governance, "he says.

Correa, meanwhile, continues to arouse extreme passions.

And he knows it.

This Thursday, in a recorded message that was issued during the closing of Andrés Arauz's campaign in Quito, the former president left a clear message to Correísmo: "We will discuss any disagreement the day after the victory."

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