If the president (Libres!) Of Ile-de-France Valérie Pécresse is a big favorite in the regional ballot in view of the poll that we are publishing, it is in particular because she benefits from the low level of water on the left and its explosion three almost equivalent blocks.
Its candidates are found in a pocket square.
The number one of EELV Julien Bayou like the rebellious deputy Clémentine Autain are credited with 11% of the vote, overtaken by a short head by the candidate supported by the Socialist Party Audrey Pulvar who, with 12%, does not widen the gap .
An expected score two times lower than that achieved by the socialist candidate Claude Bartolone in 2015.
Worse, the ex-journalist appears to be divisive.
If she enjoys a high notoriety, 45% of respondents have a bad opinion of her and 34% a good opinion.
What to raise doubts in his own camp, where we have not forgotten the controversy aroused by his remarks on the “single-sex” meetings of the UNEF.
"The sequence strongly annoyed Anne Hidalgo, who must bite her fingers for having imposed her as a candidate," says a PS executive.
The low level of Audrey Pulvar does not do the business of the mayor of Paris, who relied on a performance of his deputy to better launch his possible candidacy for the presidential election.
Officially, the candidate's team is not worried.
“In the health context, Valérie Pécresse benefits from her outgoing status.
This is why Audrey will continue to campaign on the daily life of Ile-de-France residents, notably with her flagship promise of free public transport, ”underlines Dieynaba Diop, spokesperson for the Ile-de-France en Commun list.
However, as it stands, the union of the three left-wing candidates seems essential to hope to weigh in the second round.
A merger of the lists necessary but, in view of the estimates, still insufficient to tilt the region, in the case of triangular as of quadrangular.
regional survey intentions 1st and 2nd round
The lack of leadership seriously complicates the situation and risks exacerbating the competition between the three contenders, whose voters nevertheless share, according to our study, the same concerns (environment, social inequalities, unemployment, housing, etc.) Supported by the Communists, Clémentine Autain judges the dynamics on her side: "I started the campaign at 7%", recalls the Insoumise.
Who at the same time continues to call for the rally.
“I was the first to do so in November and my door remains completely open,” she says.
We need to give left-wing voters a perspective: if they feel the game is over, they won't even want to move.
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Regional in Ile-de-France: with 19% in the second round, little hope of victory for the RN, according to our survey
Not even two at Julien Bayou, who says he is "convinced that the environmental project can bring together Ile-de-France residents and constitute a locomotive for the second round".
While explaining having offered discussions to its competitors "to agree on major ecological and social priorities".
"I received an end of disallowance from Audrey Pulvar, whose act", he regrets.
"We will eventually find a way to union", wants to believe the spokesperson for Ile-de-France en Commun.
A path that promises to be long and winding.
Methodology:
Ipsos / Sopra Steria survey, carried out for Le Parisien-Today in France and France Info on a sample of 1000 people registered on the electoral lists of Ile-de-France, constituting a representative sample of the inhabitants of Ile-de-France aged 18 and over, surveyed online from April 5 to 7, 2021.