In Tehran, Mossad officials are sure that they have managed to hit their backyard again - this time at the uranium enrichment facility • The Iranians can restrain themselves and try to complicate Israel with the Biden government, but if a response comes, it will most likely leave Syria - or target Israeli targets around the world.
The damage to the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz yesterday seemed more like a deliberate sabotage, and less like a malfunction as initially alleged.
Publications in Iran and abroad have not been able to detail the extent of the damage caused to the sensitive facility, which was damaged for the second time in less than a year.
PM Netanyahu after the incident at the Netanz facility: "The fight against Iranian armaments is a huge task" // Photo: Roi Avraham / GPO
Assuming that the reports of sabotage are correct, it can be estimated that the damage caused by it may be significant.
Such a complicated operation, with great risk on its side, is not carried out carelessly, nor with the aim of achieving only marginal injury.
Since it requires an exceptional investment in preparation and execution, it is likely that the required achievement is, at the very least, a serious injury that will deprive it of capabilities for a long period of time.
This was the case in two previous cases in which the facility was damaged by Natanz.
The first in an operation attributed to Israeli-American cooperation, about a decade ago, in which the computer virus "Staxent" caused a centrifuge to collapse and prevented uranium enrichment for several months,
The details of the sabotage are likely to be clarified shortly.
Although the Iranian security forces have closed the area and it is claimed that the matter is under investigation, it is a facility where thousands of people work and everything that is done there is filmed and monitored 24/7 by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Iran itself may also have an interest in publishing the details, if it decides to point the finger of blame at some factor responsible for the sabotage.
Avoid taking responsibility
In this context, the immediate suspect is Israel, or more precisely: the Mossad - which has already demonstrated an impressive ability to act against various targets in the heart of Iran.
Examples of this are not lacking.
Israel took responsibility for a minority (the theft of the nuclear archive), and most did not, but others attributed it to it (from the previous explosion in Natanz and the assassination of nuclear project manager Muhsan Fahrizadeh, to the assassination of a senior al-Qaeda figure and a host of other actions).
Various publications have been able to tell that these actions of the Mossad (and others, such as the assassination of Hamas members in Tunisia and Malaysia) were carried out by emissaries.
This is a relatively efficient and safe method of operation.
Assuming that the required distance is maintained between the operators (Israelis) and the (foreign) operators, even if the operation fails and the operations are caught - it is difficult to link them to the person who sent them.
If Israel is indeed responsible for the sabotage of the enrichment facility, it is likely that a report was passed, as is customary, to the Americans.
In recent weeks, the administration in Washington has shown growing resentment in the face of Israeli activity against Iran, especially in the naval arena.
This led to a series of leaks of sensitive information about some of the operations to the American media, apparently in order to signal to Israel that the US does not want Israel to interfere in its attempts to open a new page with Tehran. It is unclear how the Biden administration will respond to the current sabotage. In his speech yesterday, immediately after his first working visit to Israel, the new US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin refrained from addressing the Iranian issue, but there was no doubt that the issue was on the agenda in closed talks with his counterpart, Bnei Gantz, and other senior officials. In government and the defense system.
In these talks, Israel seeks, first and foremost, to "align" with the new administration on intelligence issues related to the Iranian nuclear program.
The next step is a debate on the details of the agreement, when Israel wants the new agreement to include changes compared to the original agreement signed in 2015.
This is especially true at the time of the expiration of the agreement, as well as issues related to international oversight of the Iranian nuclear program and various issues related to research and development in the nuclear fields.
Iran opposes any change to the original agreement, and demands that a return to it also include the complete and unconditional removal of the US sanctions imposed on it.
In recent months, Tehran has even taken a series of defiant measures, openly violating the original agreement it signed.
Among other things, Iran accumulated a much larger amount than the permitted level of enriched uranium to a low grade of 4.5 percent, and even began to enrich uranium to a medium level of 20 percent.
On Tuesday, Iran reportedly installed advanced centrifuges - which were also banned from use in the agreement - at the Natanz facility, which was damaged yesterday.
It is unlikely that the sabotage yesterday was an immediate response to these Iranian violations, chief among them the operation of the advanced centrifuges.
As mentioned, such operations require time and careful preparation, and it is likely that if this is indeed a deliberate action as hinted at yesterday in a variety of media, and if it is Israel and an institution, the intention was to convey a double message: first physical - to cause real damage to the Iranian nuclear program, and second conscious - To prove once again that not only is Iran infiltrated and vulnerable, but also to signal to the world that Israel will continue to defend its vital interests itself.
This chain of events returns the ball to the Iranian court.
After recovering from the (additional) blow it received, Tehran will be required to decide how to respond.
One option is to restrain, and try to complicate Israel with the US and the powers that burn the region and in fact sabotage the possibility of a return to the nuclear agreement. A third option is to respond directly. Iran knows how to act secretly, and Israel has a variety of assets and targets around the world that can be harmed.
Time for intelligence vigilance
This requires Israel to have a high level of intelligence and operational vigilance, and at the same time - to decide how it intends to continue this escalating campaign, which is complicated by the faltering relations with the Biden administration.
In order to ensure that, at least on the Israeli side, the conduct is correct, it is required that at least on these issues, government hawks lay the axes and conduct a coordinated front, even before a new government is formed.
An orderly meeting and serious discussions of the Political-Security Cabinet will be a worthy start to this.