Emmanuel Macron, Xavier Bertrand and Valérie Pécresse would win against Marine Le Pen in the second round of the 2022 presidential election, but Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Yannick Jadot would be beaten and Anne Hidalgo would be on an equal footing, according to an Ifop-Fiducial poll for the Journal du Dimanche and Sud Radio *.
Prospects, however, hypothetical one year before the election, since according to this survey, the first round would be clearly dominated by Marine Le Pen (25 to 27%) and Emmanuel Macron (23 to 28%) in each of the eleven scenarios tested by the institute .
The two finalists in the 2017 presidential election, very close in voting intentions regardless of the configuration, would be tied in the first round in two cases.
Ms. Le Pen would come out on top in seven cases and Mr. Macron in two.
Regional elections survey: Valérie Pécresse starts the race in the lead in Ile-de-France
For this first round, Ifop-Fiducial first assesses the voting intentions of four possible candidates for the right.
Xavier Bertrand would take the best, in order, over Valérie Pécresse, Laurent Wauquiez and Bruno Retailleau.
Thus, in the event that they compete in the first round facing, on the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI), Anne Hidalgo (PS) and Yannick Jadot (EELV), Mr. Bertrand would obtain 16% of the votes, Ms. Pécresse 11%, M. Wauquiez 7% and M. Retailleau 6%.
Mélenchon in the lead on the left
On the left, Mr. Mélenchon would obtain the best score, in a range going from 10 to 13.5% of the vote.
Ifop questioned respondents on several possible configurations, with or without a joint application for the PS and EELV, the candidates tested being respectively Anne Hidalgo, Arnaud Montebourg, Yannick Jadot and Eric Piolle.
Even in the case of a joint PS-PCF-EELV candidacy, none of these candidates exceeds 10% of voting intentions.
In the event of a second round against Marine Le Pen, the best score would be achieved by Xavier Bertrand who would obtain 59% against 41% for the president of the National Rally.
Valérie Pécresse would obtain 55% against Ms. Le Pen, a little better than Mr. Macron who would collect 54% against the far-right candidate.
On the left, Anne Hidalgo would be on a par with Ms. Le Pen, 50/50, but Jean-Luc Mélenchon would be largely beaten with 40% of the vote against 60%.
Yannick Jadot would also be beaten by 47% of the votes against 53%.
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(*) Survey conducted using the quota method with a sample of 1,730 people registered on the electoral rolls, taken from a sample of 2,003 people, representative of the French population aged 18 and over.
Margin of error of 1 to 2.2%.