The plan to kidnap Israelis shows that Tehran will not give up revenge • Meanwhile, Natanz maintains ambiguity regarding the level of damage to the nuclear facility • And everything connects to discussions on a new nuclear agreement with the US, with the latest incident likely to harden the Islamic Republic's
The information that flowed yesterday from Iran and other sources did not present a uniform picture of the damage caused to the nuclear facility at Natanz.
Although reports in the West stated that the electrical systems in the facility had been severely damaged, which had put it out of service for many months, Iranian officials claimed that the facility was functioning and that in the coming days advanced centrifuges would be installed to replace those damaged.
Photo: Yad Vashem
This is not a theoretical discussion.
The attack on Natanz is intended, according to estimates, to delay Iran's nuclear program and deprive Iran of a significant bargaining chip in the negotiations it is conducting with the United States on a return to the nuclear deal.
If the facility is badly damaged - and all the thousands of centrifuges installed in it are damaged and out of use - it will take a long time, months, before it can operate again at full capacity.
The Americans will apparently be able to use this time to reach a better nuclear agreement than the one signed in 2015.
The central question now is how the Iranians will behave.
Both directly with Israel, and on the issue of the nuclear agreement.
The prevailing assumption is still that they will seek to return to the agreement, provided the US removes the sanctions from them. However, they may seek, for example, guarantees that Israel will no longer harm facilities on Iranian soil, a commitment that Israel will not agree to issue.
It is assumed that Iran will not agree to return to the agreement without complete and immediate removal of the sanctions.
On the contrary: it may try to take advantage of the last event to toughen its stance in the negotiations. The Supreme Leader Khamenei reveals already extremely suspicious of the Americans, and it is possible that choose to wait until their intentions are clarified.
At the same time, require Iran to decide whether and how to respond against Israel. Estimates in this case - and this is also the working assumption in the defense establishment - are that Iran will respond. in fact, Iran is looking for such a response has been since the assassination last November, the project manager nuclear Mohsen Fhrizadh attributed to the institution.
I gained the events since then, especially the naval battle of recently exposed, only sharpened the need for Iran responded well to calm the public opinion at home and trying to create a balance of deterrence new index with Israel. We can assume that Iran was looking for a goal to be worthy and moral enough, but even so that would not make cross-reactivity and more outspoken of Israel.
An example, disclosed yesterday, is The Iranian intelligence service's attempt to entice Israelis to reach the Gulf, where the Iranians planned to kidnap or kill them, is a well-known course of action that Tehran has already used against opponents of the regime, and is now targeting Israeli targets. Was to
Reached much more valuable goals.
The revelation of the plan was intended to warn Israelis that there might have been a potential target for harm, but also to make it clear to the Iranians that their current plot was thwarted.
One must not learn from the fact that the revenge case is closed, on the contrary;
Iran is angry, and is looking for a quick and painful response.
It requires Israeli security services to record vigilance, it requires every Israeli traveling around the world on a mission or privately to record caution, and it requires a clear message to Tehran that any harm, mild or severe, will not be on the agenda, leading to a resounding counter-reaction.
Only in this way will Israel maintain its upper hand and refrain from slipping into dangerous deterrence equations with Iran.