Eduardo Paladini
04/12/2021 8:36 AM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 04/12/2021 8:36 AM
Statistically it would be a triple tie.
But the cold number leaves the
undecided at the top
and the two large
representatives of the rift above
, barely separated by tenths.
With that surprise, the last national survey of
Reale Dalla Torre
(RDT) Consultores was published, which
Clarín
announced this Monday.
It is a study of
2,150 cases
, with different entries and perhaps the same conclusion for the 2021 elections: the scenario is still moving and open.
Originally from
Mendoza,
RDT
is one of the pioneering firms in social media measurements.
He had several successes in local elections in 2019 but, like the vast majority, he fell far short of his presidential prognosis.
His last poll was done
between April 1 and 3
.
This newspaper anticipated a section linked to the new restrictions due to the coronavirus.
The report of results and conclusions is broken down into five chapters.
The electoral, in turn, is subdivided into three scenarios, according to different measurements faced by the consulting firm directed by
Martha Reale
.
The first scenario is the one that they have been monitoring since July 2020, and where they ask respondents: "If the
legislative elections
were tomorrow,
who would you be closest to voting for
?"
Five variants are offered in response:
v 1.5
National electoral survey
Based on a survey of 2,150 cases
Tap to explore the data
Source:
RDT Consultores
Infographic:
Clarín
1) A candidate of
Alberto Fernández
and
Cristina Kirchner
.
2) A candidate from
Larreta
,
Macri
,
Vidal
,
Cornejo
,
Lousteau
,
Carrió
.
3) A candidate of the libertarians (
Espert
,
Milei
).
4) A candidate from
the Left Front
.
5)
Don't know
.
As explained at the beginning of the note, in the April measurement
the undecided won, with 30%
.
Glued, less than two points down, were the variants of
Frente de Todos
(
28.8%
) and
Juntos por el Cambio
(
28.4%
).
They completed the
libertarians
with
8%
and the
FIT
with
4.8%
.
Compared to July
of last year, the first parameter that
RDT
shows
, the "don't know" ones fell more than 12 points and the official option, slightly less than four.
In contrast, Together for Change grew to about 10, the libertarians four and the FIT two.
In
comparison with December
, the measurement most recently the Frente de Todos fell more than four points (had touched a peak of 33%), Together for Change and libertarians fell almost nothing (six and three tenths respectively), left up 1.2 point and the undecided increased 3.9 (they had reached a floor of 26.1%).
Then the consultant measures a second scenario, to take the
pulse of polarization
.
"
If you could choose only between the following options
for the next election, would you say that you would vote for ...?"
There the opposition takes some advantage:
v 1.5
National electoral survey
Based on a survey of 2,150 cases
Tap to explore the data
Source:
RDT Consultores
Infographic:
Clarín
1) A candidate from
Larreta, Macri, Vidal, Cornejo, Lousteau, Carrió
:
42.6%
(up 2.5 points compared to December).
2) A candidate of
Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner
:
34%
(down 2 points).
3) Don't know:
23.4%
(fell 0.5 point).
As additional data,
RDT
clarifies that about
65% of libertarian voters would favor Together for Change
and only 3.5% for the Front of All.
The game of binomials
The third scenario that the firm raises is a
statistical and political game thinking about 2023
.
He offers the same respondents a series of presidential pairings to test.
With combinations of all kinds.
People could choose between
four variants of the Front of All, four of Together for Change
, plus one libertarian.
They completed with "other" and "does not know."
The result was the following:
Alberto Fernández and Sergio Massa, in February of this year.
A consulting firm measured them as a presidential formula.
1)
Alberto Fernández - Sergio Massa
: 20.2%.
2)
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta - Rodolfo Suarez
(Governor of Mendoza): 13.5%.
3)
Mauricio Macri - María Eugenia Vidal
: 13%.
4)
Cristina Kirchner - Sergio Massa
: 12.3%.
5)
Patricia Bullrich - Martín Lousteau
: 9%.
6)
José Luis Espert - Javier Milei
: 8.4%.
7)
Alfredo Cornejo - Mario Negri
: 3.2%.
8)
Máximo Kirchner - Sergio Massa
: 1.5%.
9)
Sergio Massa - Máximo Kirchner
: 0.6%.
10)
Other
: 12.5%.
11)
Don't know
: 5.8%.
- Total
Together for Change
: 38.7%.
- Total
Front of All
: 34.6%.