weekly
Written by: Yang Yingwei
2021-04-12 19:35
Last update date: 2021-04-13 15:29
– Incorporating into the dual cycle – the
deep-seated contradictions will cause "side effects" after the barriers are repeatedly broken?
As China's most internationally open highland, Hong Kong is not only unable to protect itself from the current international environmental crisis, but it has long been "encouraged by the enemy."
The National People’s Congress formally adopted the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for the National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China and the Outline of Long-Term Goals for 2035" (hereinafter referred to as the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan"), which is a blueprint for modernization. "Double Cycle" strategy to meet the complex challenges of major changes in the world unseen in a century.
For the Mainland, the dual-cycle strategy has undoubtedly become the main axis of the medium and long-term; but for Hong Kong, the dual-cycle strategy is still a question mark.
The "Double Cycle" emphasizes the need to form a new development pattern in which the domestic and international double cycles are the mainstay and the domestic and international double cycles are mutually promoted. The domestic demand potential of the Chinese market can be used to stimulate China's economic growth. It can be seen that the country's development prospects are broad, but what about Hong Kong?
As the "super liaison" between China and the world, under the new normal of international politics in which China and the United States are competing, Hong Kong's external circulation hub function will be the first to be affected and hit by external risks.
Hong Kong urgently needs to re-define its international political and economic positioning, find the right direction of development, and be prepared to meet the general trend.
When the central government proposed a dual-cycle national strategy focusing on internal cycles, focusing on internal economic reforms, if Hong Kong does not actively integrate into the overall national development situation, it will miss the many dividends of the national strategic transformation process and be "marginalized" under the country's top priority. ".
Is this a crisis or a turning point?
The right to choose lies in Hong Kong itself.
"Double Loop and Hong Kong" Series Report No. 42
Continuing from the above:
Double Cycle·Crisis | drastic changes in the international situation, China's strategic adjustments, Hong Kong,
After the analysis, it is not difficult for us to come to this direction: Hong Kong should seize the dual-cycle opportunity and actively integrate into the internal cycle to find opportunities.
This is actually the central government's expectation of Hong Kong.
During the interview, Zhang Yuge and Liao Qun coincidentally mentioned that "Hong Kong should take the initiative to integrate into the overall situation of the country."
From a political point of view, Zhang Yuge pointed out that this is a "special emphasis" on Hong Kong and Macau in the "14th Five-Year Plan". "This term has only appeared in recent years. It was not in the "13th Five-Year Plan"." He added, " The 14th Five-Year Plan sets up a special chapter for Hong Kong and Macau, which is sufficient to demonstrate the weight and status of Hong Kong in national development. "The appearance of a city in the country's highest-level development plan is a major event." Liao Qun added from an economic perspective, " If you look at the internal cycle, there are 1.4 billion people in the country. How many people are in the European Union? 700 million people, 300 million people in the United States, and all the West can be compared. If the internal cycle is truly cycled, it must be a bigger market than overseas Market."
Under the framework of "one country, two systems," it is not easy for Hong Kong to "actively integrate". It requires the SAR government to take the initiative to engage in "internal relations" and break the current barriers to integration between the two places.
Liao Qun pointed out that there are currently three barriers in the two places: capital barriers, institutional barriers and ideological barriers.
At present, the funding barrier is the lowest.
He said that under the appropriate relaxation of restrictions, Hong Kong's financial industry has been very prosperous. This can be seen from the wave of Chinese concept stocks coming to Hong Kong. "The domestic financing demand is large and the capital market is relatively small, so a large number of companies come to Hong Kong to raise funds." Zhang Yuge added, Hong Kong's Funds are very supportive of the real economy in the Mainland. "Including some angel investments in Shenzhen Science and Technology, they also come from Hong Kong."
Liao Qun pointed out that there are three barriers between Hong Kong and the Mainland.
(Profile picture)
Although system barriers exist, they have improved in recent years, such as promoting social security such as housing and medical care for people living in dry Hong Kong.
However, the certification of professionals such as doctors, teachers, and accountants in both places is still temporarily shelved due to the epidemic.
Zhang Yuge pointed out that on the occasion of the 40th anniversary of the establishment of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, the central government proposed that the construction of the Greater Bay Area should "promote the integration of economic operation rules and mechanisms", but he believes that even if there is a "Qianhai Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Service Industry Cooperation Zone" In the pilot project, the industrial cooperation between dry ports still failed to find a suitable path. "In the past, the model of "front store, back factory" was the cooperation between manufacturing and service industries, which was very complementary. But now dry port cooperation is gradually shifting to service industries. , And the competition between the service industry is relatively strong, and it is difficult to cooperate if it is not handled well."
Liao Qun is the least optimistic about ideological barriers. After the social movement last year, the gap between mainlanders and Hong Kong people has further widened. "Hong Kong doctors may not want to go to the mainland to practise; people from the mainland who come to Hong Kong to see a doctor will not be like "sports." So much before.” Zhang Yuge also believes that in recent years, Hong Kong’s “politicization” tends to hinder cooperation between the two places. “In February 2019, the "Greater Bay Area Planning Outline" was proposed. In June, there was an anti-revision law movement to jointly build The atmosphere of the city has been greatly affected. Now when I talk about "Building the Greater Bay Area", there is no sense of "following the trend"."
"Proactively integrating into the overall situation of the country's development" is a necessary move for Hong Kong's future development, but it does not mean that it can solve all Hong Kong's problems.
At the moment when barriers are eliminated, Hong Kong must also consider the "side effects" of integration: whether it is to maintain its role as an external circulation hub under pressure or integrate into the domestic cycle, it may further solidify Hong Kong's industrial structure.
What needs to be clarified is that the source of "side effects" is not in integration, but in Hong Kong itself.
Hong Kong has long been struggling with structural economic problems. The four pillar industries of financial services, tourism, trade and logistics, and professional services account for 60% of the local GDP.
Deng Xiwei once stated in the "Hong Kong Economic Policy Green Paper 2021" that in the past two decades, "only the financial industry has recorded wage growth" among the four pillar industries, while the other three industries have maintained stable or even negative growth.
The "financial dominance" Hong Kong has fallen into the initial imbalance of "high value-added and low employment, low value-added and high employment", which has superimposed housing problems, resulting in a serious disparity between the rich and the poor.
"Hong Kong is not as simple as income inequality, but wealth inequality, which is one of the most serious in the world." Deng Xiwei sighed.
Professor Tang Xiwei of the School of Economics and Management of the University of Hong Kong pointed out that Hong Kong’s wealth disparity is one of the highest in the world.
(Profile picture)
On the positive side, Hong Kong’s financial and professional services have advantages that the Mainland cannot catch up in the short term. Of course, the central government is happy to see Hong Kong actively integrate into the dual cycle with two advantageous industries.
On the negative side, the financial industry and professional services will only continue to grow under the integration, which will further aggravate the inequality of distribution and the disparity between the rich and the poor.
"Market-led development has developed regional comparative advantages. It is obvious that Hong Kong's comparative advantage is finance. Under the dual cycle, financial opportunities are endless. However, the problem of disparity between the rich and the poor has not been solved, and it may become more and more serious." Deng Xiwei said.
"Serious to a point, I don't know if it will be a risk to the development of the Greater Bay Area."
When the reporter raised this question, Zhang Yuge quoted the concept of Lu Dale, the vice president of the Education University of Hong Kong, to answer: "Hong Kong is a "globalized city with borders." This concept comes from the paper "A Boundary with Boundaries" published by Professor Lu in 2014. A Global City: Hong Kong's Situation in Transition after 1997", the article opened: "As a global city, Hong Kong's situation is a bit embarrassing." Then it explained that this embarrassment comes from the contradiction between system division and globalization. : On the one hand, globalization emphasizes the free flow of resource elements. As a globalized city, Hong Kong will exert a dominance effect on surrounding cities, and develop a regional economy centered on Hong Kong. In the 1990s, the "front shop and back factory" were Examples; but on the other hand, the separation of systems and borders makes the resource flow between Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta "extensive flow of capital and limited flow of people", coupled with the government’s superstition of "market omnipotence" and lack of planning, leading to Hong Kong In the process of sharing the economic development dividend of the Mainland, only "no upgrade and no transformation" growth can be achieved, and there is no real economic development.
Hong Kong is a "globalized city with borders." Although capital flows widely, the mobility of people is very low.
The picture shows the MTR staff closing the channel connecting the Lo Wu port and the station after the outbreak.
(China News Service)
"The mobility of Hong Kong people is actually very low." Deng Xiwei said sharply, "No one has ever questioned what is wrong with New York being a financial center. Because if I was in New York, I could go to New Jersey or Massachusetts. , But in Hong Kong, this choice is not so easy.” Zhang Yuge also has the same view, “If you only make more than 10,000 yuan a month in Shenzhen, and you can’t even rent a house, then I’ll just go back to my hometown. But Hong Kong There is no country in the country. Where do you go?” Zhang Yuge pointed out that it is not realistic to rely on integration to solve Hong Kong’s internal problems. “The salary level in the Mainland is currently not up to Hong Kong’s salary income. The Greater Bay Area must be used to digest Hong Kong’s employment. Demand is not something that can be done.” But Zhang Yuge also pointed out that Hong Kong can loosen the solidified industries by integrating into the Greater Bay Area. This also “imposes higher requirements on the SAR government” because “the SAR government is in There are shortcomings in industrial planning."
The above excerpt is from the 260th issue of "Hong Kong 01" Weekly (April 12, 2021) "How does the Hong Kong version of the "vaccine passport" land again in the vaccine battlefield? ". If you want to read the full text, please
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Selected content of the 260 issue of "Hong Kong 01" Weekly News:
Perspective of the National Double Cycle Strategy to Face Hong Kong's Crisis and Opportunities
How will the Hong Kong version of the "vaccine passport" land in the vaccine battlefield again?
Are global students tired of Zoom?
Educational technology welcomes the golden age
Post-epidemic era: How long can the virtual oasis under construction last?
Double circular economy Sino-US trade war Sino-US relations disparity between the rich and the poor deep-seated structural contradictions Greater Bay Area
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