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Iranian nuclear: five minutes to understand an explosive situation

2021-04-13T15:46:53.633Z


Iran accuses Israel of sabotaging its uranium enrichment site in Natanz on Sunday and called for revenge. And wave the threat


Tensions rose a notch in Iran after an alleged attack on the uranium enrichment plant located in the city of Natanz (center of the country).

Tehran said on Monday that Israel was responsible for the sabotage and pledged revenge against its rival.

In the process, the official Irna agency announced on Tuesday Tehran's intention to enrich "uranium at 60%", against 20% currently, well beyond the limit of 3.67% set by the international Iran nuclear deal concluded in Vienna in 2015, but torn apart by Donald Trump.

In parallel with this escalation, new talks are being held in Austria to reintegrate the United States into the Vienna Agreement, which therefore provides for a limitation of enrichment in exchange for a lifting of sanctions, an agreement that the neighbor Israeli takes a dim view.

What happened ?

The Natanz uranium enrichment plant, one of the most closely watched in the country, was the victim of a "power failure" on Sunday April 11, the origin of which remains suspect.

An investigation was opened to determine the exact causes of this "accident", which was blamed the next day on Israel by the Iranian authorities.

According to an official statement broadcast by national television, it would be an act of "anti-nuclear terrorism".

Iran has promised its Israeli enemy that it will take revenge because the attack has damaged the new centrifuges just inaugurated in Natanz.

However, these recent installations are not allowed to exist under the 2015 Vienna Agreement which deals with Iranian nuclear power and the limitation of its use by Iran.

"It is quite logical" that Iran accuses Israel, explains Thierry Coville, researcher at Iris and specialist in Iran.

“A year ago this factory had already been targeted by Israel,” he continues.

In July 2020, the Iranian authorities had indeed denounced a "terrorist sabotage" without revealing the conclusions of their investigations.

Through its Minister of Defense, Benny Gantz, Israel at the time replied that if it wished to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, it was not "necessarily linked [to] any event that happens in Iran ”.

A few months later, the death of Mohsen Fahrizadeh, Iranian deputy defense minister and nuclear physicist, was also attributed to Israel by Tehran.

Regarding the attack against Natanz, it is "normal" that Iran wants revenge "but this is not their first concern according to Thierry Coville.

"Iran has to face a serious economic crisis, the Covid crisis where there is even talk of a fourth wave in the country and it is in the midst of negotiations with the United States so that they return to the Vienna Agreement », He develops.

What is the context of this attack?

This attack on the Natanz plant comes in fact in the midst of the resumption of negotiations around the 2015 Vienna Agreement, which relates to Iranian nuclear power.

They mark the possible return of the United States to the discussions almost three years after its withdrawal unilaterally decided by the then president, Donald Trump, who had reinstated sanctions against Iran.

One year to the day after this announcement, on May 8, 2019, Iran counter-attacked by declaring that it would no longer meet certain commitments that were included in the agreement, such as limiting the reserves of heavy water and enriched uranium.

"The negotiations with the United States, Iran have been waiting for them for a long time," explains Thierry Coville.

He had bet on a defeat of Donald Trump ", in the presidential election of 2020." In the 2015 agreement, there was a kind of return of Iran in the global discussions.

It was the first diplomatic agreement where the United States and Iran were side by side since the revolution (of 1979, note), ”explains the researcher.

The resumption of exchanges between the two powers on a coordinated return of the Americans to the agreement "is a good start", believes Thierry Coville.

For this, the United States must accept a gradual lifting of the sanctions taken by the previous administration against Iran and the latter must lift the measures decided in retaliation since 2019. “It is nevertheless the first time that the United States and Iran have been discussing together in the same meeting (they participate together in the negotiations but the United States does not take part directly, editor's note), since 2018. It is positive ”, explains the specialist on Iran.

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Concluded under the aegis of the United Nations, the Vienna Agreement stipulates in particular that Iran must respect the rule of 3.67% of enriched uranium, a production which is limited exclusively to Natanz and this for a period of fifteen years. .

In return, the United States and the European Union were obliged to end certain sanctions targeting Iran, such as those on transport or finance.

The agreement was signed by the P5 + 1 countries (China, United States, France, United Kingdom and Russia plus Germany).

Two days after the “sabotage” of its factory, the Iranian press announced the country's intention to enrich uranium to 60%, marking a clear departure from the terms of this agreement.

How are the international powers reacting?

Faced with recent events in Natanz, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on Monday that "what we are hearing from Tehran at the moment is not a positive contribution (to the discussions in Vienna, nldr), in particular recent developments concerning Natanz ”.

"Any attempt to undermine the ongoing discussions in Vienna must be rejected," said Peter Stano, spokesperson for the head of European diplomacy.

As for Russia, it gave its support to Iran on Tuesday during a press briefing in the Iranian capital.

"We are counting on the fact that we will be able to save the agreement and that Washington will finally return to [its] full implementation," declared Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, on a visit to the country.

"The United States was in no way involved" in the attack this weekend, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki reported on Monday.

Concerning a risk for world diplomacy after Iran's call for "revenge" against Israel, this is a "question that everyone is asking", recognizes Thierry Coville.

"It is a great concern that we see everywhere: that the action of Israel will lead Iran to leave the negotiations but it does not really intend to do so", specifies the researcher of the Iris.

"From the start, Israel has had no confidence in Iran's civilian nuclear power (which it is authorized to produce, editor's note) and is against the 2015 agreement," explains Thierry Coville.

Israel would thus seek to send a message to the United States "to tell them to be careful" because "it is against their return" to the Vienna Agreement, he concludes.

And now ?

New discussions are scheduled for Wednesday in Vienna, still with a view to the United States' soon return to the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement.

Abbas Araghchi, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, has, according to Iranian state television, left his country on Tuesday for Austria in order to attend this new round of negotiations.

Source: leparis

All news articles on 2021-04-13

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