Unexpected war of polls: six consultants measured who is the leader of the opposition

Eduardo Paladini

04/13/2021 1:01 AM

• Clarín.com

• Politics

Updated 04/13/2021 1:01 AM

With a reduced and short-term look, it could be a parameter of

how the internal is in the dome of the PRO

.

In a broader analysis in time and space, I would anticipate a

projection for 2023

.

Clarín

accessed

half a dozen polls

in recent days

, each one from a different consulting firm, where they evaluate who is the main leader of the opposition.

An unexpected war of polls, which puts in numbers what the leaders themselves have been stressing with actions and words.

The bid is focused on three leaders: two "tough" -

Mauricio Macri

and

Patricia Bullrich

- and a "moderate" -

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta

-.

To which another dialogue writer could join -

María Eugenia Vidal

-.

First conclusion: the results

do not leave a single and immovable statement

.

Patricia Bullrich, during the act against violence in Patagonia.

Analysts' interest in this bid is perhaps comparable to that which aroused, even before they took office, the

relationship between Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner

.

There the central question was who was in charge -and in charge-, but the look is more coincidental: the influence of the vice president was piercing the figure of the formal boss.

The six consulting

firms

that the internal opposition now addressed are

Management & Fit

,

Opinaia

,

Taquion

,

Giacobbe & Asociados

,

Real Time Data

(RTD) and

Reale Dalla Torre Consultores

(RDT).

In addition to evaluating the images of the referents of

Together for Change

, they asked specifically about their role as leaders of the opposition, about their intention to vote for an eventual STEP and even for a presidential one.

The

underlying latent doubt

always seems the same: do non-official voters

demand a more extreme proposal

as embodied by Macri and Bullrich

or a more moderate one

as proclaimed by Larreta and Vidal?

If the doubt is one and clear, the answers are various and confusing.

Who is the main reference?

Five of the six national polls that

Clarín

accessed

asked about the main opposition leader.

For

Management & Fit

and

Reale Dalla Torre

, it is

Larreta

.

In the latter case, they asked all the respondents and among the voters of Together for Change.

In both, the head of government prevailed.

National Management & Fit survey on opposition leadership.

Here Larreta prevails and second was Bullrich.

RDT Consultores national survey on opposition leadership.

At a general level, Larreta prevails and second was Bullrich.

RDT Consultores national survey on opposition leadership.

Among voters of Together for Change, Larreta also prevails and second was Bullrich.

In the

Opinaia

numbers

, which also discriminated numbers according to the voter, in all cases

Macri

won 

.

The former president also came first among the opponents when

Real Time Data

asked which leader best represents his ideas.

National survey of Opinaia on the opposition leadership.

Here Macri prevails: in general and when discriminated by political affinity.

Larreta was second.

Real Time Data asked who best represents their ideas: within the opponents, Macri prevails, followed by Larreta and Bullrich.

And for

Tachyon

, the one who came forward was 

Bullrich

.

Regarding the current president of the PRO, there is a fairly widespread coincidence: her image has been raising, especially within the Macrista militants.

Taquion national poll on opposition leadership.

Here Bullrich prevails and Larreta was placed second.

Vidal

, meanwhile, tends to hover between third and fourth place, but far from the main leadership.

Curious about the former governor

: when her image is measured, it rebounds, but when asked about her opposition role, she remains in the background.

Who has the most votes?

In addition to weighing the role as an opponent, four of the six firms also delved into

the electoral issue

.

In different ways.

In its national poll, Opinaia asked for a STEP between "hard" and "moderate" of Together for Change.

Opinaia

, as Clarín announced this Wednesday, evaluated

how a STEP would come out between "hard" and "moderate"

of Together for Change.

He inquired among those surveyed who were predisposed to vote for this opposition alliance.

The Larreta-Vidal-Lousteau trio

(44%)

triumphed

over their counterpart Macri-Bullrich-Pichetto (32%).

Giacobbe & Asociados national survey.

Who should be the candidate of Together for Change in 2023?

Giacobbe

raised directly

who should be the candidate for president

in 2023 by Juntos por el Cambio: in an atomized scenario,

Larreta won

(18.1%), followed by Bullrich (15.8%) and Macri (12.3%). ).

The most chosen, however, was "none of them, they should seek a renewal" (32.4%).

Real Time Data did a national poll and asked who the next president of Argentina should be.

The Buenos Aires head of government also appeared as the best positioned opponent when

Real Time Data

asked

who the next president should be

: Larreta tied for second place with Cristina, with 10%, one point less than Alberto Fernández.

Vidal and Macri were one notch lower, with 7%, and Bullrich added 5%.

Reale Dalla Torre Consultores national survey: they measured a possible presidential intern in Juntos por el Cambio.

Finally, in a particular statistical game,

Reale Dalla Torre

  inquired about a possible

opposition presidential intern

, with different formulas:

Macri-Vidal finished in front

with 33.2%, followed by Larreta-Suarez (governor of Mendoza) with 24.1 %, Bullrich-Lousteau with 17.2% and last Cornejo-Negri with 6%.

Each one's plans

Not only in their position against Kirchnerism, but also in the times, possible allies and how to play in 2021, there are differences between those who aspire to lead the opposition.

Mauricio Macri

: the ex-president's movements are

in crescendo

after a short post-defeat silence.

Two things were combined: his insistent internal demand for vindication and the fall in approval of the national government.

That is where Macri sees a gap to maintain his role as an anti-K benchmark.

At some point there was speculation about a 2021 nomination -also as a way of judicially shielding oneself with fueros-, but later it was discarded.

2023 seems more open, especially after the suggestive name with which he presented his book: "Primer tiempo".

It is one of the representatives of the toughest wing.

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta

: the head of government perhaps imagined a paved path towards a presidential candidacy when he renewed his mandate in the City.

There was talk of a private agreement with Macri to make it so.

The time and certain movements of the former president seemed to deny it.

Hard Kirchnerism also altered Larreta's plans when he saw his popularity rise excessively among voters of the Frente de Todos and chose him as his political enemy.

In any case, the head of government continues to try to keep his speech moderate and focused on management.

Patricia Bullrich

: perhaps the most active of all the leaders of Together for Change.

With the endorsement of Macri, she assumed the presidency of the PRO and from there she became "the" benchmark in the hard sector.

He began to travel the country and confronted each movement of the national government in the media and on the street.

That made her rise in the polls, particularly among Juntos por el Cambio voters.

She has already decided that she will be a candidate in the City in 2021 and we will have to wait if Larreta allows her to head a consensus list or plant an internal one.

It may be an advance of 2023: the former minister does not rule out a national application or go for the succession in the Head of Government.

María Eugenia Vidal

: the one with the most low profile of the four, is about to reappear with the presentation of her book.

She sounds like a candidate in the City and in the Province: she warned that she will wait until the closing of the lists approaches to decide.

After having fallen in the polls after the defeat, even in silence he was improving his numbers.

As explained, he uploaded his image but is not yet seen as an opposition leader.

She says that the vindication will be given by the votes.

Looking ahead to 2023, he leaves the entire stage open, including a (now unlikely) presidential candidacy.