Eduardo Paladini
04/14/2021 10:51
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 04/14/2021 10:51 AM
Duality appears from boot.
From the first general screenshot.
The
Frente de Todos
can be happy because it has the most elected formula in a
poll for the presidential 2023
, but also worry because in the global it is second.
The opposite of
Juntos por el Cambio
: a partner of his own appears as an escort on the list, but his opposition alliance prevails in the total sum.
Even more curious is the case of
Sergio Massa
: with one pair he finishes first and with another, last.
When the date for the 2021 legislatures is still in doubt,
Reale Dalla Torre Consultores (RDT)
included in his study this month an advance for the presidential.
And he did it in a particular way: he
combined 14 leaders of the ruling party and the opposition in 9 formulas
.
RDT
is a firm with origins in Mendoza and a pioneer in measurement through social networks.
Between April 1 and 3, he conducted a national survey of
2,150 cases
.
Clarín announced this Monday part of the survey, which also came with surprise: facing the midterm elections, the undecided appear at the top and there is a tie between the Frente de Todos and Juntos por el Cambio.
The general table
In the chapter on
"Electoral Climate"
, the consulting firm directed by
Martha Reale
explains: "On this occasion, we introduced a new element for the analysis, the intention to vote by binomials. Although the election of the same
was carried out in a whimsical way
, it followed criteria with some degree of reasonableness. "
"In the
ruling party
, we took into consideration the combination of the
four referents with gravitation
in and out of space. The result of this survey is that even with a persistent deterioration,
Alberto Fernández continues to be the most competitive figure in
the ruling spectrum," continues the report.
And complete: "In the context of
Together for Change
, we seek to mix
'pure' PRO and UCR
referents -following
the logic of the 2015 primaries-,
'hawks' with 'doves'
and a
binomial with a federal profile"
.
Thus,
four pairs of the Frente de Todos were formed
,
four from Together for Change
, plus
José Luis Espert - Javier Milei
.
Nine formulas with 14 mixed leaders.
v 1.5
Poll for the presidential 2023
Based on a national survey of 2,150 cases.
Tap to explore the data
If next Sunday were the Presidential Elections and you had to "choose" by binomial.
Which of the following would you lean towards?
Source:
Reale Dalla Torre Consultores
Infographic:
Clarín
The most voted was
Alberto Fernández - Sergio Massa
, with 20.2%;
and the least,
Sergio Massa - Máximo Kirchner
with 0.6%.
In the opposition, meanwhile, the best were
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta - Rodolfo Suarez
(governor of Mendoza), with 13.5%;
and the worst,
Mario Negri - Alfredo Cornejo
, with 3.2%.
In the middle were:
Mauricio Macri - María Eugenia Vidal
13%,
Cristina Kirchner - Sergio Massa
12.3%,
Patricia Bullrich - Martín Lousteau
9%, José Luis Espert - Javier Milei 8.4% and
Máximo Kirchner - Sergio Massa
1, 5%.
They completed
"Other"
with 12.5% and
"Don't know"
with 5.8%.
In the accumulated, as if it were a law of slogans,
Together for Change got a few points from the Frente de Todos
: 38.7% against 34.6%.
The official intern
Beyond this general order in which all respondents participated,
RDT
also presented a
cut by space
, detailing the percentages of each formula according to the "votes" of its electorate.
An internal.
v 1.5
Official intern for 2023
Based on a national survey of 2,150 cases.
Tap to explore the data
If next Sunday were the Presidential Elections and you had to "choose" by binomial.
Which of the following would you lean towards?
Source:
Reale Dalla Torre Consultores
Infographic:
Clarín
In the
PASO del Frente de Todos
, Fernández - Massa came first with 38.8%, Cristina - Massa second with 24.5%, Máximo - Massa third with 4% and last Massa - Máximo with 1%.
They completed the "don't know" with 32.2%.
The opposition inmate
Unlike the ruling party, when the Juntos por el Cambio couples faced each other only among their voters, the order changed and
the pair that the City won in 2011
, Macri - Vidal,
prevailed
with 33.2%.
v 1.5
Internal opposition for 2023
Based on a national survey of 2,150 cases.
Tap to explore the data
If next Sunday were the Presidential Elections and you had to "choose" by binomial.
Which of the following would you lean towards?
Source:
Reale Dalla Torre Consultores
Infographic:
Clarín
Second are Larreta - Suarez with 24.1%, third Bullrich - Lousteau with 17.1% and fourth Cornejo - Negri with 6%.
The
undecided fell to 19.5%
.
In both cases, however, and as the report itself explained, they were
whimsical combinations
.
A statistical -and attractive- game just over two years after the election.